Gold getting KILLED!!!!

[big67]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

The biggest case against gold in my opinion is it's popularity on internet forums, and various other places. That's not typical for a good investment. That's was what Hendry pointed out in the video. It can morph into a bubble as that is typical on the last leg when the masses get into something, that I see, but a good investment, in my opinion, no.

However, if he is right, gov bonds, and the dollar is the way to go. That is certainly against conventional wisdom. Even the sentiment on gov bonds was extremely bullish among strategists in dec last year, when gov bonds possibly topped out.

We must agree upon what a bubble is: is media coverage enough to tell gold is in a bubble?
Gold has had a good coverage in the media lately, but MSM coverage I found was mostly bearish, not bullish.
I still can't see where the bubble is... is Joe 6 Pack herding into it? not at all as far as I can see. Talk about gold to your neighbours and they will still stare at you as if you were "original", more or less as it was 2006 and you have talked about a Real Estate bubble.

[ASH]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Yes I hold gold but I am not buying in this range. I consider it range bound in the near term. The reasons are the same as 6 months ago. If the economic morass continues, prices everywhere will depress but will threaten enough political instability to support gold so I doubt we will see $250oz either. If there is an inflationary recovery it will be interpreted as initially positive for equities and industrial commodities some of which will be funded by moving out of gold so its not going up in that scenario. . I thought this 6 months ago as I stated on this forum and it has been correct thus far. A catastrophic collapse of the dollar would certainly change all of the above. However a dollar collapse unlikely and speculative. It is simply a possibility not a inevitability.

That's a good analysis -- one I can believe in.

[audrey_girl]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Yes I hold gold but I am not buying in this range. I consider it range bound in the near term. The reasons are the same as 6 months ago. If the economic morass continues, prices everywhere will depress but will threaten enough political instability to support gold so I doubt we will see $250oz either. If there is an inflationary recovery it will be interpreted as initially positive for equities and industrial commodities some of which will be funded by moving out of gold so its not going up in that scenario. . I thought this 6 months ago as I stated on this forum and it has been correct thus far. A catastrophic collapse of the dollar would certainly change all of the above. However a dollar collapse unlikely and speculative. It is simply a possibility not a inevitability.

wouldn't a significant, lesser event cause gold to go to the moon

for example: pakistan government falls, israeli strike on iran, british economy implodes in a similar fashion to iceland?

moreover, you really don't need a dollar collapse for gold to go to the moon; all you need is for the dollar to be de-throned as the reserve currency of the day and imho that is looking increasingly as an inevitable event...

all you have to do is to carefully read what is being reported on a daily basis now and fit the pieces into this puzzle:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aqA9QhRSNeqM

[wayiwalk]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

...............

all you have to do is to carefully read what is being reported on a daily basis now and fit the pieces into this puzzle:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aqA9QhRSNeqM

Audrey_girl - sounds like you're thinking like Jim Rodgers - good piece of information there!

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

be under $900 very soon.
Mike

Get with the program.

Didn't EJ just write a big piece that said "Gold bad. Everything 30 years treasuries now!"

Here is Hendry: " Giant blow off in treasuries we will all get rich rich rich!"


even pimpco agrees: " buy more treasuries! "

gold is so 6 months ago.

[icm63]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Get all you can. EJ and the gang have a great track record. They say $2,500 gold, I say $900 is CHEAP.

Caution: Price that fails to rally may force profit taking, the degree here will depend upon the change in expectations of when the inflation beast will arrive and stocks performance in the scary months coming up. If stocks fall and force the hand of contagion liquidation gold could easily fall $300. The SP500 has priced in $80 per share earnings, when really they will only get $50 (if lucky) and thats the SP500 below 650. Gold will not rally when stocks are falling to those levels.

[charliebrown]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

ok, bought GLD at 89.00 today, also bought coin at 20.00 over spot.
if it goes down more i'm in for more.

[gorkypark]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I am at 98 percent.

This is not a speculative play on the price. I need to keep my cash in a currency and for me the only currency I have any faith in is gold. I will not keep my currency in USD or Sterling and I have no faith in the Euro or the Yen. Other currencies are far too vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of commodities.

If gold goes down 20 percent in Sterling, I may "lose" some money but then that would be a scenario in which the British economy is doing pretty well and Id be earning handsomely - not a bad situation overall. if the economy goes down the toilet, my gold will be my parachute. I also have zero debt (not even credit card debt) and (goes without saying) have no mortgage - so with no debts and most of my money in gold and agricultural land, I am not that bothered about 15-20 percent fluctuations in the price.

If I was a superb technical trader with extensive knowledge of technical analysis and was trading with a screen in front of me all day, I'd worry about 5 percent price moves. But since I am not in that position, I don't give a damn about those kinds of price moves.

As for "deflation", it reminds me about the early seventies when some experts on Wall Street said the price of gold would collapse if Nixon removed the window because gold's price was connected with the demand for US Dollars. If you delink gold from Dollars, no one would want gold any more. Its incredible to me that anyone would have believed this kind of shit. Then as the price of gold soared, they said that the recession would cause massive deflation because of credit destruction (sounds familiar!!). Instead, the price of everything (not just gold) went up twenty or thirty fold by the end of the 70s.

So for "deflation", my answer is "bring it on!".

For those with 90-98% of liquid assests (or was it net worth) in physical gold, where/how does one store the stuff and yet keep one's peace of mind.....I've found that owning the stuff is less 'liberating' than advertised

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

You are either...
1] Not reading the iTulip official posts,
2] Not believing EJ's forecast.

I am...
1] Placing my faith in EJ,
2] Shaking my head at your $900 is a gold bubble comment.

On Ka-Boom theory, we have a lot of ka and very modest boom. Yes, deflation can get going, and we need that for hyper-inflation---- the boom caused by central bank pumping of the money supply recklessly. But so far, so good: no boom. Things are deflating slowly, everywhere, on nearly everything.

Show me the boom before I begin to buy more gold. I am not one who believes in faith of any kind, and I do NOT want to be part of any gold cult unless the data drives me to believe in gold. So far, I see no inflation, or not enough inflation anywhere in the world, to call a $900+ U.S. gold market as anything more than a big bubble.

[FRED]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Get with the program.

Didn't EJ just write a big piece that said "Gold bad. Everything 30 years treasuries now!"

Here is Hendry: " Giant blow off in treasuries we will all get rich rich rich!"


even pimpco agrees: " buy more treasuries! "

gold is so 6 months ago.

The cheh shaped recovery – Part II: Yield curve says what?
June 17, 2009, iTulip

Gold

Gold, the fourth currency, will trade inversely to all currencies as global re-inflation continues. Over the next six months, barring any fresh crashes to the financial system that send investors out of financial assets and into gold, we see gold trading much as in 2006, but at a higher level.

Gold spent most of 2006 between $600 and $650


Gold may trade between $800 and $1000 in 2009
until the Fed decides which mistake to make next

Longer term, we see gold at $2,500.

[nero3]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

We must agree upon what a bubble is: is media coverage enough to tell gold is in a bubble?
Gold has had a good coverage in the media lately, but MSM coverage I found was mostly bearish, not bullish.
I still can't see where the bubble is... is Joe 6 Pack herding into it? not at all as far as I can see. Talk about gold to your neighbours and they will still stare at you as if you were "original", more or less as it was 2006 and you have talked about a Real Estate bubble.

I agree, it is not yet a big bubble, but there are things brewing. You have the average Joe talking about gold, gold have been impossible to get hold of where I live, in late 2008 and gold and silver was trading very low, it was impossible to get any of the real stuff from the coin dealer here, I know, cause I wanted to buy gold below 800 and silver below 10 dollars, it was impossible to get any. I have witnessed it a lot the last year, back in 2006 and early 2007, the coin dealer had all the time in the world to talk on the phone. Since early 2008 gold have been on "standby", hovering between 900-1000, with some dips below. Just that it have held up so well when everything have taken a hit could be a sign it is experiencing a flow of money that is typical of a bubble, during the 1998 nasdaq correction, the nasdaq was the only thing that held up well. It's when gold breaks out of this 900-1000 range, I think the bubble will occur, and everything seems to be in place for it to happen.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Leave it to an impossible photo-shopped image to be your retort. Makes sense.

[FRED]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I agree, it is not yet a big bubble, but there are things brewing. You have the average Joe talking about gold, gold have been impossible to get hold of where I live, in late 2008 and gold and silver was trading very low, it was impossible to get any of the real stuff from the coin dealer here, I know, cause I wanted to buy gold below 800 and silver below 10 dollars, it was impossible to get any. I have witnessed it a lot the last year, back in 2006 and early 2007, the coin dealer had all the time in the world to talk on the phone. Since early 2008 gold have been on "standby", hovering between 900-1000, with some dips below. Just that it have held up so well when everything have taken a hit could be a sign it is experiencing a flow of money that is typical of a bubble, during the 1998 nasdaq correction, the nasdaq was the only thing that held up well. It's when gold breaks out of this 900-1000 range, I think the bubble will occur, and everything seems to be in place for it to happen.

We have been accurately tracking the gold market since 1998. We'll let our readers know when gold is a bubble. We have on many occasions since 2001 had to refute allegations that gold is a bubble.

Our latest:

FIRE Buys Ice

Back when we started talking up gold in August 2001 when the metal traded at $270, if we suggested that some day a large insurance company will buy hundreds of millions of dollars worth of gold to "hedge against further asset declines" we'd have been laughed off the Internet. And then...

Northwestern Mutual Makes First Gold Buy in 152 Years
June 1, 2009 (Bloomberg - Andrew Frye)

Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Co., the third-largest U.S. life insurer by 2008 sales, has bought gold for the first time the company’s 152-year history to hedge against further asset declines.

“Gold just seems to make sense; it’s a store of value,” Chief Executive Officer Edward Zore said in an interview following his comments at a conference hosted by Standard & Poor’s in Brooklyn. “In the Depression, gold did very, very well.”

Northwestern Mutual has accumulated about $400 million in gold, and Zore said the price could double or even rise fivefold if the economy continues to weaken. Gold gained 10 percent last month, the most since November. The commodity has more than tripled since 2000, rising for eight straight years. Gold futures for August delivery slipped $4.80 to $975.50 at 4:03 p.m. in New York.

AntiSpin: Today, with this announcement, gold officially exited the Early Adopter stage of market development and entered the Early Majority stage.

We entered at the Innovator stage. We intend to exit during the Late Majority stage when most of the price appreciation can be expected to occur. The dates are, of course, guesses. Our long term gold price target is $2,500.

The fact that coins are not available while gold prices remain stable is curious. There are plenty of gold ingots around for anyone who wants to buy those. Why aren't more coins fabricated if that's what gold want? Very odd.

[sunskyfan]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Whatever you say. Implied name calling does not make a point.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I love the way the uninformed deflation bogey gets passed around the market. Yet very few alive today have ever really witnessed real "deflation". On the Telegraph, Ambrose Evans Pritchard rattles on about "deflation" in Japan ad nauseum as though Japan's consumer's prices have crashed through the floor (hey if Japan's been in "deflation" how is it that gold prices in Yen are substantially higher now than in 2001?).

I look around me and compare prices with last year. Nothing is cheaper other than some super luxury items which are not a necessity (yeah Ferraris are 40 percent cheaper now in the used car market in London - but that never interested me. Im not a car nut). Food costs more now than it did a year ago - I do grocery shopping every week and compare the prices with what they were last year. One kilo of chicken now costs about £3.38. I remember when this cost £2.50 last year. Everything else - eggs, milk, sugar, lamb, beef costs more. Where is this deflation that the ivory tower economists talk about endlessly? During the Great Depression the price of everything was crashing - in real terms and people felt it. This is simply not happening today.

I try to book holidays and I can't find any cheap flights anywhere in Europe - this in the midst of the biggest economic meltdown in eight decades and the greatest credit contraction that any of us will ever witness in our lifetimes. If the destruction of credit would cause prices to crash, why are prices of everything so stubbornly high? The CPI in Britain is stubbornly above 2 percent - even though commodity prices are much lower than they were at their July peaks last year.

I don't see the cost of any of the necessities coming down at all. Except for real estate prices (which were a massive bubble financed by cheap credit), nothing else has come down in price. I rigorously calculate how much money I spend and save every month. Due to freezes on salaries in the City of London, my take home pay is the same as it was in the beginning of 2008. Yet I am saving less now than I was then - with the exact same spending habits.

Someone had better convince me how we are in sustained deflation - I just don't see it. I may be too thick.

As for gold bubbles, all bull markets turn into bubbles eventually. Especially in a hyper speculative environment which has been spawned by decades of easy money policies - people know that wild price gyrations can make fortunes overnight. The average investor is forced to become a gambler (as Faber says). The classic definition of a bubble is that the price goes up even when the supply is increasing.

Lets see now. Gold production peaked in 2003. Its supply is not outpacing demand. By contrast, the supply of government debt is turning into a glut. The same applies to fiat currencies which are being printed like there's no tomorrow. So if they continue to have rallies (as Sterling did recently and the Dollar seems to be doing now), where is the bubble exactly? If you ask me, the Dollar looks like the biggest scariest bubble on the planet.

With a gigantic national debt including unfunded liabilities of $113 Trillion and growing exponentially, the US is fast approaching the day of reckoning when printing is the only option left to meet these obligations. If the US doesn't print, how does it pay its debts? With legitimate production? Of what? With manufacturing gutted over the decades? In fact, for sustained deflation to occur, the US would need to repay its debts with legitimate production and no money printing. Without that, inflation is inevitable. I have yet to encounter anyone anywhere (including this forum) who can show me how the US Government will meet its liabilities without resorting to monetisation.

So please show me the deflation case. I cannot see one being made cogently.