Gold getting KILLED!!!!

[ASH]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Whatever you say. Implied name calling does not make a point.

Yeah. I don't have quite the same take on this issue (gold) as you, Sunsky, but I'm rather puzzled by the vehemence of your detractors. Doesn't reflect well on the forum, in my opinion.

[portobellovcs3]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I believe that it is better to wait until the next equity market crash is over before buying gold. I can see it back at $700 like in the fall. If it does get there, and after the next market crash into this fall or next spring, I will be buying gold mining stocks on the TSX (Toronto) as they will be very depressed. That could be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Gold mining companies are a great way to get involved in gold without buying gold, although I won't even consider the gold miners until there is another big market fall/crash.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

For those with 90-98% of liquid assests (or was it net worth) in physical gold, where/how does one store the stuff and yet keep one's peace of mind.....I've found that owning the stuff is less 'liberating' than advertised

My family has owned physical gold for more than a century. We are used to it.

[nero3]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

We have been accurately tracking the gold market since 1998. We'll let our readers know when gold is a bubble. We have on many occasions since 2001 had to refute allegations that gold is a bubble.

We entered at the Innovator stage. We intend to exit during the Late Majority stage when most of the price appreciation can be expected to occur. The dates are, of course, guesses. Our long term gold price target is $2,500.

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I think your estimate is very conservative, especially in light of the long time horizon, I am not sure if I would call it a bubble if gold hit 2500 dollars in 2016. If Gold is to become a bubble like in 1980, or as with the NASDAQ in 2000, I mean a real bubble, then I was thinking more like 5-8000 dollar gold ,and an inflationary stock bear market with the dow and gold meeting 1:1, at around 5-8000, perhaps even 10000.

[FRED]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I think your estimate is very conservative, especially in light of the long time horizon, I am not sure if I would call it a bubble if gold hit 2500 dollars in 2016. If Gold is to become a bubble like in 1980, or as with the NASDAQ in 2000, I mean a real bubble, then I was thinking more like 5-8000 dollar gold ,and an inflationary stock bear market with the dow and gold meeting 1:1, at around 5-8000, perhaps even 10000.

But gold can never be a bubble in the way housing and stocks are bubbles. A true bubble requires cooperation from government, as did the NASDAQ bubble and housing bubble in the U.S., the stock market and housing bubbles in Japan, all the way back to the South Sea Bubble. See The Next Bubble.

Gold is anathema to governments. High gold prices are the opposite of a bubble. Who wins? Who loses?

Answer these questions and you understand bubbles.

[nero3]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

But gold can never be a bubble in the way housing and stocks are bubbles. A true bubble requires cooperation from government, as did the NASDAQ bubble and housing bubble in the U.S., the stock market and housing bubbles in Japan, all the way back to the South Sea Bubble. See The Next Bubble.

Gold is anathema to governments. High gold prices are the opposite of a bubble. Who wins? Who loses?

Answer these questions and you understand bubbles.

It's an interesting article, however that way of viewing it basically rules out that things as silver (1980(, sugar (early seventies) and even oil (2008) can become a bubble, and I happens to disagree with that.

[Mega]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Fred, when will the stock market be a good bet again?
Mike

[icm63]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Over the next six months, barring any fresh crashes to the financial system that send investors out of financial assets and into gold

Money didnt go into gold after/during 2008 crash, it went into treasuries. On a 'fresh crash' funds will have to liquidate profitable positions ( ie Gold) to pay out dissapointed investors as redemptions will sore ! So gold may find the love at $600 on a 'fresh crash'...its not bullet proof !

[FRED]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Money didnt go into gold after/during 2008 crash, it went into treasuries. On a 'fresh crash' funds will have to liquidate profitable positions ( ie Gold) to pay out dissapointed investors as redemptions will sore ! So gold may find the love at $600 on a 'fresh crash'...its not bullet proof !

No, money went into both gold and Treasuries.

The rest of your post is hard to decipher.

[ASH]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

No, money went into both gold and Treasuries.

The rest of your post is hard to decipher.

My impression is that money went into gold and Treasuries on the initial crash, when failure of the banking system seemed possible. Then, as fear of a systemic crash dissipated -- but stocks and commodity funds were still down -- gold sagged for awhile. That could have been partly because investors were withdrawing funds from commodity funds, which I think is ICM's point. On the other hand, it didn't dip that far, and it didn't stay down for very long -- for reasons I think gwynedd1 captured well.

In this discussion, I think we should define what a "fresh crash to the financial system" is. If it is a sell-off of the market and general commodities, but unaccompanied by fears of a systemic disaster, then possibly the price of gold might sag. (I have no opinion about price target in that scenario -- my eyes are on iTulip's long-term price target, and relationship to DJIA. Except, if this does happen and gold dips while the market revisits March, then I'll be cashing in my speculative shorts to buy gold or energy.) If it is a "crash" in the sense of a systemic crash, then obviously gold would rise sharply. In my opinion, the use of the phrase "to the financial system" means that EJ was speaking of fresh systemic worries. In other words, unless people are worried about the system, then gold trades sideways.

[FRED]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

My impression is that money went into gold and Treasuries on the initial crash, when failure of the banking system seemed possible. Then, as fear of a systemic crash dissipated -- but stocks and commodity funds were still down -- gold sagged for awhile. That could have been partly because investors were withdrawing funds from commodity funds, which I think is ICM's point. On the other hand, it didn't dip that far, and it didn't stay down for very long -- for reasons I think gwynedd1 captured well.

We have been on the theme of gold not declining in line with commodities in a "Ka" dis-inflationary environment for several years now, and stuck to our guns on that through a fair degree of criticism from all quarters before and during the event, but I appreciate your point.

In this discussion, I think we should define what a "fresh crash" is. If it is a sell-off of the market and general commodities, but unaccompanied by fears of a systemic disaster, then possibly the price of gold might sag. (I have no opinion about price target in that scenario -- my eyes are on iTulip's long-term price target, and relationship to DJIA. Except, if this does happen and gold dips while the market revisits March, then I'll be cashing in my shorts to buy gold.) If it is a "crash" in the sense of a systemic crash, then obviously gold would rise sharply.

We define the next crash as the end of the First Bounce of the Debt Deflation Bear Market that we marked as over on June 17th.

We are learning that it is necessary to bore our readers by repeating over and over again that we told them about the start of the debt deflation bear market in December 2007, and the start and end of the first bounce within it in March 2009 based on fiscal stimulus hopes, and the end in June 2009. We don't like to repeat ourselves but it seems that if we do not our readers forget what they used to know.

[icm63]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

We don't like to repeat ourselves but it seems that if we do not our readers forget what they used to know.

The reason you repeat yourself is because this blog has a poor index of main points or big calls. The standard forum list is hard to search through.

For example I would so something like this from your main page: to a page that lists itulip.com main story line, or ongoing thesis.

Introduction : Link to your article
Display summary of conclusions: max 500 characters.
Chapter one : Link to your article
Display summary of conclusions: max 500 characters.
Chapter Two : Link to your article
Display summary of conclusions: max 500 characters.
etc (with dates, authors, etc)

Then when an issue requires repeating you say : Goto chapter 7 and review itulips position. Or please read chapters 5 to 9...

Itulip has got so large, with so much info, a better wikki style book index is required.

Hey love the site, dont ban me !

[Finster]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

We are learning that it is necessary to bore our readers by repeating over and over again that we told them about the start of the debt deflation bear market in December 2007, and the start and end of the first bounce within it in March 2009 based on fiscal stimulus hopes, and the end in June 2009. We don't like to repeat ourselves but it seems that if we do not our readers forget what they used to know.

It would be helpful if we had some reference place where the current iTulip position is summarized. It's hard for someone coming in to know, for example, whether iTulip still regards the debt deflation bear market as being in effect, or whether it is still bullish on gold. He wouldn't necessarily know whether it still has a near term bullish bias on long-dated UST or whether there's something he may have missed somewhere in its many pages. A reference area for the current iTulip position would rectify this as well as obviate most of the repetition.

[sn1p3r]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Click on EJ's name....then all Threads started by him and you will see roughly what you are asking for....

[rabot10]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

The biggest case against gold in my opinion is it's popularity on internet forums, and various other places. That's not typical for a good investment. That's was what Hendry pointed out in the video. It can morph into a bubble as that is typical on the last leg when the masses get into something, that I see, but a good investment, in my opinion, no.

However, if he is right, gov bonds, and the dollar is the way to go. That is certainly against conventional wisdom. Even the sentiment on gov bonds was extremely bullish among strategists in dec last year, when gov bonds possibly topped out.

STFU, thanks cuz U R one stupid dude jmho. Sorry have U had a job in the last few years? Or do you live in your focks double wide? Funny but I know the answer to that question