Gold getting KILLED!!!!

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I just bought some more.

I must have the most insane percentage among iTulipers of liquid assets in gold.

I don't care about the Dollar price because: (1) I don't get paid in USD; and (2) Im not long USD in cash. In sterling, the currency's rally is over and gold is actually holding up in Sterling terms. So, it makes no sense to worry about the Dollar price if you are a Uk resident and have sterling exposure.

I just reduced my sterling exposure again and bought another big chunk of gold. When the first of several currency crises hits, I'll review my position. for the moment, I have no faith in the financial markets and in the solvency of the British Government.

On a side note, HALF of India's budget deficit this year will be financed by monetisation. HALF!! Has anyone worked out what this means for the price of gold?

[nero3]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Hugh Hendry

http://www.ft.com/vftm

In view from the markets. He is definitly bearish on gold.

[grapejelly]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

gold may hit 860, silver $10 or 11. HUI down to 280. Yawn.

Next step gold $2000, silver $35, HUI 800. Yawn.

[big67]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Listened to the video, but he does not point put out really a "reason".
He justs says that he is bearish because gold is not already higher despite unprecedent events, such as Quantitative Easing, GM bankruptcy etc.

I think he is really making a bullish comment, not a bearish one. We are all still in the denial phase (that the system as a whole is bankrupt).

[wayiwalk]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Gold is getting killed the same day that a group of poker players, I mean country representatives are sitting around the table, while the idea of a new world currency is being floated.

A fun read - The Billion Dollar Sure Thing. by Paul Emil Erdman. All about currency/gold manipulation in the early 70's. Fiction, but within the realm of reason.

What is for sale? US decision to say they don't support Israel to attack Iran's nuke facilities? How much mid-eastern gold sales does that cost, which would drive down the price.

[don]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Kremlin rewrites book on resources
By John Helmer

MOSCOW - Russia's resources overlord, Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin, is considering a new plan to award the right to mine Sukhoi Log, one of the largest unmined gold deposits in the world, to a special-purpose company backed by Russian Technologies, the state metals and minerals conglomerate run by Sechin's old ally, Sergei Chemezov.

The operator and goldminer in the proposal is Lenzoloto. If Sechin approves the plan, it would become independent of controlling shareholder Polyus Gold. But with state supervision, and not enough state money, this is another big-ticket item which Sechin may offer his friends in Beijing.

Chemezov's group already owns and operates VSMPO-Avisma, the titanium and magnesium monopoly in Russia. The group has been looking to add to it additional alloy minerals, such as molybdenum. Chemezov's Russpetsstal ("Russian Special Steel") unit currently operates several plants for special steels and alloys used in the aviation and aerospace industries and is planning to add more. Chemezov is also a development partner in the large unmined Udokan copper deposit.

Although gold is not thought of in Moscow as a strategic mineral for military purposes, a move by Chemezov to put the long-delayed Sukhoi Log deposit into development would confirm the trend towards state sponsorship of resource projects, which the commercially owned, publicly listed Russian mining companies cannot afford right now.

Lenzoloto is based in the Irkutsk region and held the Sukhoi Log mining license in a joint venture with an Australian junior, Star Mining,

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/KG09Ag03.html

[rjwjr]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I must have the most insane percentage among iTulipers of liquid assets in gold.

I don't know about that - my money is on jtabeb. I think he is 90%+.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

gold may hit 860, silver $10 or 11. HUI down to 280. Yawn.

Next step gold $2000, silver $35, HUI 800. Yawn.

I agree with your guess as the most likely case right now, near term. In the intermediate term ( a year or two out ) your guess might well be optimistic. I am thinking more like $600 or $700 gold and $8 silver, something like that.

For my thinking to really pan-out, a non-inflationary world economic recovery would begin, that recovery based upon slow worldwide growth centred in China and India, Russia, Brazil, and the Middle East.

For my thinking to really pan-out, Bernanke would have to be replaced with a deflationist. Obama would have to change his thinking on building windmills and solar junk, and he would have to support building atomic reactors and drilling for oil, as soon as possible.

Maybe Obama and his bunch of eco-nuts will get turfed-out. That could send precious metals down to my target range, too.

We shall see how this plays out. But for sure: $35 per ounce gold now over $900 is a bubble, if there ever was a bubble!

[gwynedd1]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Yes I hold gold but I am not buying in this range. I consider it range bound in the near term. The reasons are the same as 6 months ago. If the economic morass continues, prices everywhere will depress but will threaten enough political instability to support gold so I doubt we will see $250oz either. If there is an inflationary recovery it will be interpreted as initially positive for equities and industrial commodities some of which will be funded by moving out of gold so its not going up in that scenario. . I thought this 6 months ago as I stated on this forum and it has been correct thus far. A catastrophic collapse of the dollar would certainly change all of the above. However a dollar collapse unlikely and speculative. It is simply a possibility not a inevitability.

[jtabeb]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I just bought some more.

I must have the most insane percentage among iTulipers of liquid assets in gold.

If you can beat 90%, then I'll be impressed.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Yes I hold gold but I am not buying in this range. I consider it range bound in the near term. The reasons are the same as 6 months ago. If the economic morass continues, prices everywhere will depress but will threaten enough political instability to support gold so I doubt we will see $250oz either. If there is an inflationary recovery it will be interpreted as initially positive for equities and industrial commodities some of which will be funded by moving out of gold so its not going up in that scenario. . I thought this 6 months ago as I stated on this forum and it has been correct thus far. A catastrophic collapse of the dollar would certainly change all of the above. However a dollar collapse unlikely and speculative. It is simply a possibility not a inevitability.

For gold to move up significantly ( like to at least $1200 per oz ), we would have to see hyper-inflation developing in the U.S. along with a dollar dump by central banks, maybe along Bernanke being even more inflationary, and the U.S. economy in decline and building even more solar junk and more windmills. That could do it.

Maybe as the world economy recovers, the U.S. would be left in the dust, with its windmills and its solar junk. Stocks on the DOW would drop even further.... That is my nightmare scenario, and the bullish scenario for gold.

[hayekvindicated]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

If you can beat 90%, then I'll be impressed.

I am at 98 percent.

This is not a speculative play on the price. I need to keep my cash in a currency and for me the only currency I have any faith in is gold. I will not keep my currency in USD or Sterling and I have no faith in the Euro or the Yen. Other currencies are far too vulnerable to fluctuations in the prices of commodities.

If gold goes down 20 percent in Sterling, I may "lose" some money but then that would be a scenario in which the British economy is doing pretty well and Id be earning handsomely - not a bad situation overall. if the economy goes down the toilet, my gold will be my parachute. I also have zero debt (not even credit card debt) and (goes without saying) have no mortgage - so with no debts and most of my money in gold and agricultural land, I am not that bothered about 15-20 percent fluctuations in the price.

If I was a superb technical trader with extensive knowledge of technical analysis and was trading with a screen in front of me all day, I'd worry about 5 percent price moves. But since I am not in that position, I don't give a damn about those kinds of price moves.

As for "deflation", it reminds me about the early seventies when some experts on Wall Street said the price of gold would collapse if Nixon removed the window because gold's price was connected with the demand for US Dollars. If you delink gold from Dollars, no one would want gold any more. Its incredible to me that anyone would have believed this kind of shit. Then as the price of gold soared, they said that the recession would cause massive deflation because of credit destruction (sounds familiar!!). Instead, the price of everything (not just gold) went up twenty or thirty fold by the end of the 70s.

So for "deflation", my answer is "bring it on!".

[nero3]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

The biggest case against gold in my opinion is it's popularity on internet forums, and various other places. That's not typical for a good investment. That's was what Hendry pointed out in the video. It can morph into a bubble as that is typical on the last leg when the masses get into something, that I see, but a good investment, in my opinion, no.

However, if he is right, gov bonds, and the dollar is the way to go. That is certainly against conventional wisdom. Even the sentiment on gov bonds was extremely bullish among strategists in dec last year, when gov bonds possibly topped out.

[rjwjr]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I agree with your guess as the most likely case right now, near term. In the intermediate term ( a year or two out ) your guess might well be optimistic. I am thinking more like $600 or $700 gold and $8 silver, something like that.

For my thinking to really pan-out, a non-inflationary world economic recovery would begin, that recovery based upon slow worldwide growth centred in China and India, Russia, Brazil, and the Middle East.

For my thinking to really pan-out, Bernanke would have to be replaced with a deflationist. Obama would have to change his thinking on building windmills and solar junk, and he would have to support building atomic reactors and drilling for oil, as soon as possible.

Maybe Obama and his bunch of eco-nuts will get turfed-out. That could send precious metals down to my target range, too.

We shall see how this plays out. But for sure: $35 per ounce gold now over $900 is a bubble, if there ever was a bubble!

You are either...
1] Not reading the iTulip official posts,
2] Not believing EJ's forecast.

I am...
1] Placing my faith in EJ,
2] Shaking my head at your $900 is a gold bubble comment.

[Moe_Gamble]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

be under $900 very soon.
Mike

Looks like another global margin call (liquidity squeeze). Open interest continues to fall.