Gold getting KILLED!!!!

[Sidewinder]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Perhaps just GS showing everyone who is boss? :eek:
SW

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

I want to draw your attention to an interesting fact about at least a small corner of the gold market.
this is a graph showing action in the gold market yesterday 2010-4-15

notice the sharp spike up at about 11:00AM on Thursday over 47.0 followed by a waterfall drop to about 1:00PM.
I attempted to liquidate with a limit price of 47 about 10AM. only 1000 shares sold at that price. It looks to me like the subsequent drop over the course of 2 hours was someone liquidating "at the market" a significant block of stock. possibly $10,000,000 or more. Because the total number shares circulating for GTU is quite small, this small sale was enough to push the entire stock down.

Take home:
This is a small illiquid stock, and you may not be able to get out at an opportune moment, even if you do the "right" thing. If you are expecting a cathedral top blow off in gold, it may be difficult or impossible to unload even if you time it perfectly.

[charliebrown]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

would phys be a better vehicle?
10M?? that is 200K shares. Was someone tipped off about today?
Rumor has it that Paulson Hedge fund has a large holding of GLD and is involved in the GS issues. They may have to liquidate.

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

would phys be a better vehicle?
10M?? that is 200K shares. Was someone tipped off about today?
Rumor has it that Paulson Hedge fund has a large holding of GLD and is involved in the GS issues. They may have to liquidate.

I didn't count the shares traded. it looks like about 20,000 traded hands all day ( eye ball guess from the graph ) , so the amount that this stock can move with a few thousand shares pretty huge. in contrast gld looks like it moved a million of more shares on thursday.

PHYS is even smaller and even more likely to be distorted


look at that that spike. it is not reflected in the kitco gold spot or gld or anything that I can see. My spidey sense is tingling.

[GRG55]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

I want to draw your attention to an interesting fact about at least a small corner of the gold market.
this is a graph showing action in the gold market yesterday 2010-4-15

notice the sharp spike up at about 11:00AM on Thursday over 47.0 followed by a waterfall drop to about 1:00PM.
I attempted to liquidate with a limit price of 47 about 10AM. only 1000 shares sold at that price. It looks to me like the subsequent drop over the course of 2 hours was someone liquidating "at the market" a significant block of stock. possibly $10,000,000 or more. Because the total number shares circulating for GTU is quite small, this small sale was enough to push the entire stock down.

Take home:
This is a small illiquid stock, and you may not be able to get out at an opportune moment, even if you do the "right" thing. If you are expecting a cathedral top blow off in gold, it may be difficult or impossible to unload even if you time it perfectly.

GTU is a closed end fund. The premium over the gold bullion price can, at times, be spectacular - it has exceeded 20% in the past. The units can move more than the bullion %age move if the premium expands or contracts sharply. The premium tends to contract when bullion prices are falling and expand when bullion prices have been rising.

Some folks trade GTU [and it's sister fund CEF] by tracking the premium movement instead of the bullion prices.

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

would phys be a better vehicle?
10M?? that is 200K shares. Was someone tipped off about today?
Rumor has it that Paulson Hedge fund has a large holding of GLD and is involved in the GS issues. They may have to liquidate.

Too cool, I just sold another position intending to buy GLD monday. I hope a big player SELLS AT ANY PRICE today or monday...

[globaleconomicollaps]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

I feel funny reviving this shaggy old thread, but I want to discuss the moves we are seeing today in the euro and gold ( and oil ). as I write this gold is back up to 1233 which is a pretty good exit point if it follows the euro down to $1.00 what do you guys think?

for reference:
gold up 12% since mar 23
euro down about 8% since mid april
oil down ~15%

[LargoWinch]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

I feel funny reviving this shaggy old thread, but I want to discuss the moves we are seeing today in the euro and gold ( and oil ). as I write this gold is back up to 1233 which is a pretty good exit point if it follows the euro down to $1.00 what do you guys think?

for reference:
gold up 12% since mar 23
euro down about 8% since mid april
oil down ~15%

My hunch is that short-term, Gold and PMs are overbought, while Oil in the low 70s is the better play.

I am also looking at Agriculture such as DBA closely...

[we_are_toast]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

My hunch is that short-term, Gold and PMs are overbought, while Oil in the low 70s is the better play.

I am also looking at Agriculture such as DBA closely...

Agreed.
I don't have enough oil for the long term, so I'm adding at this point and expecting a roller coaster ride in the short term.

[pescamaaan]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

i have a small allocation to gold, a larger allocation to silver. i've enjoyed watching the recent run up. the question i have, which i assume everyone has, is whether the trend will continue [is it different this time?]. i find myself asking, where is the risk greater - adding to my PM position or holding dollars [USD]. which is the risk trade and which is the anti-risk trade.

while gold is rising, oil and commodities are dropping (ie, dollar is weakening against gold and strengthening against other commodities)

my thought from here is that the better trade is holding on to dollars (or perhaps raising more dollars by selling some PM) and moving to oil, dba, etc....i guess i fail to understand the recent negative correlation between gold and the other commodities?? what is it telling us?

[unlucky]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

i have a small allocation to gold, a larger allocation to silver. i've enjoyed watching the recent run up. the question i have, which i assume everyone has, is whether the trend will continue [is it different this time?]. i find myself asking, where is the risk greater - adding to my PM position or holding dollars [USD]. which is the risk trade and which is the anti-risk trade.

while gold is rising, oil and commodities are dropping (ie, dollar is weakening against gold and strengthening against other commodities)

my thought from here is that the better trade is holding on to dollars (or perhaps raising more dollars by selling some PM) and moving to oil, dba, etc....i guess i fail to understand the recent negative correlation between gold and the other commodities?? what is it telling us?

One of the interesting things happening here is the roll-out of austerity programmes across Europe. The strategy of responding to the credit crisis with massive govt stimulus is coming to end. Also the effects of the US govt stimulus should be weakening round about now. So one guess is that the markets are factoring in an all-round weakening of the global economy in the coming months, as govt action is withdrawn and the private sector fails to replace it.

[thisandthat.nowandth]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

Today's weakness was pounced on at 1218 support. If the Euro continues to fall apart, it's possible to reach the inverse H&S target of 1260.98. before a meaningful correction.

Hey, isn't it about time for a press release re-re-re-announcing the pending sale of more IMF gold ?

-joaquin-

[thriftyandboringinohio]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

I'm still keeping all my physical, and placed a GLD limit order to buy at 112 (that's gold around $1,145). I doubt my order will be filled any time soon, but will be happy if it does.

[thisandthat.nowandth]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!

Notably, Euro gold traded intra above the psychologically significant €1000 barrier today.



-joaquin-

[pescamaaan]

Re: Gold getting KILLED!!!!!

how are you getting oil exposure?