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Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

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  • Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

    http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2009...-of-world.html

    In 2006, while home prices in the US began to roll over, some wondered whether the phenomenon would spread around the world. Most scoffed. Seemingly every spot developed it's own "it's different here because..." story. The sentiments were well suited to a general dislike of the US around the world. Americans were looked down upon (and still are) as morons. After all, if 50% of such a vast country could elect a moron like Bush II - twice, what does that say about the country? So when the US housing market started to roll over in 2006 and subprime lenders started going belly-up in early 2007, it played right into the growing world pretentiousness. "There go those stupid yanks again - buying houses they can't afford. Is there a scam those folk won't fall for? Would ya pass the maple syrup Norma?"

    Indeed, these sentiments were most prominent in Canada. Every market had it's own little reason why prices would continue rising while the American markets tanked. Vancouver had the olympics, the Prairies had oil, Toronto had an endless stream of immigrants, Montreal had the Habs. But most of all, it was well known that Canada didn't engage in "subprime lending." Our banks were the most conservative in the world we were told.
    The fact of the matter is that Canadian banks are no different than many of their international counterparts. They operate on the same fractional reserve system as every other bank. And just because their reserve ratios were 8 or 9 to one as opposed to 11 or 12 to one will not matter much when all is said and done.

    And were they really as conservative as is commonly believed? A week after that Globe and Mail article, another one was published titled, "Canada's Dirty Little Secret." It shows what goes on in reality. As it turns out, there's an enormous sector of the Canadian lending business that has been making garbage loans, helping to drive up prices.

  • #2
    Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

    You could replace all of the above quotes with Australia, instead of Canada, and it would read exactly the same. Better managed, no subprime lending, envy of the world, blah, blah.

    But in the end they will all come tumbling down together.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

      Sell the Banks:
      http://marketdepth.typepad.com/marke...the-banks.html

      The key difference between Canada and other markets is that in Canada the cost of bad home loans have been socialized in advance. In Canada, we didn’t need to disguise our sub-prime excesses within dubious mortgage-backed securities. Why create an alphabet soup of bogus AAA paper when our government provides seemingly limitless quantities of underpriced mortgage insurance? As a formula for creating housing froth it has been virtually unbeatable. Housing markets may be cratering throughout the world, yet one observes a perverse new high in Canadian real estate prices in May of 2009.

      The key to Canada’s bubbly housing success been the CMHC . The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation writes guarantees on most Canadian mortgages originated at greater than 80% Loan-to-Value. This agency has been on a massive expansion binge of late. In 2008, a year of synchronized global recession, the CMHC expanded its mortgage insurance in force by a whopping 18%. CMHC now guarantees $407.7 Billion of high loan-to-value mortgages and an additional $233.9 Billion of securitized mortgages.
      Keep in mind that Canadian GDP is roughly 1/10 of US GDP.:eek::eek:

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

        Cando trading PAR with USD again; Here are the words in case you forgot them:

        http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...2/O_Canada.png

        O Canada! Our home and native land!....

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

          Originally posted by pwcmba View Post
          Cando trading PAR with USD again; Here are the words in case you forgot them: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedi...2/O_Canada.png
          More like...

          Oh Canada, our home and native Debt!
          True Credit Love, in spending it we command!
          With growing deficits, we see thee rise,
          The true North weak and indebted.
          From far and wide, oh Canada,
          We love the shopping sprees!

          God, don't make any more land!
          That's how our realtors see.
          Oh Canada, we speculate in real estate for a profitable fee!
          Oh Canada, just turn a blind eye,
          And believe in the CMHC!!


          Adeptus
          Warning: Network Engineer talking economics!

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

            Can Australian banks come after a mortgagee who abandons the property, pursuing all of their other assets, perhaps pushing the mortgagee into bankruptcy? IOW, are the mortgages recourse or non-recourse?

            Most Canadian mortgages are fully recourse, one reason the eventual Canadian bust may be slow(er) than others have been.

            Originally posted by SuitablyIronic View Post
            You could replace all of the above quotes with Australia, instead of Canada, and it would read exactly the same. Better managed, no subprime lending, envy of the world, blah, blah.

            But in the end they will all come tumbling down together.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

              Originally posted by Spartacus View Post
              Can Australian banks come after a mortgagee who abandons the property, pursuing all of their other assets, perhaps pushing the mortgagee into bankruptcy? IOW, are the mortgages recourse or non-recourse?

              Most Canadian mortgages are fully recourse, one reason the eventual Canadian bust may be slow(er) than others have been.
              I believe Australian mortgages are recourse.

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

                This gentleman 30 years ago wrote a couple of books on making money in real estate

                Then he became a newspaper / radio / TV commentator

                Then an elected member of parliament

                He had a fight with the leader of the party & got kicked out of the party.

                At one point he fell for the dot-com bubble and for example was pushing Nortel at its peak

                I believe he learned his lesson about bubbles.

                http://www.greaterfool.ca/

                An excerpt from a recent post:

                Every day, while prices rage and realtors fan the inferno, more smart people like this push back. They resist the family, societal, workplace and peer pressure to buy a home because it’s obvious: this is the worst possible moment to make that investment. They will pay the highest price ever, be pushed into a deal without conditions or safeguards, take on mountainous mortgage debt, be guaranteed of renewing it at far higher rates, and likely in a dangerous economy.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

                  "The average price of a Vancouver BC home – always an expensive place – has now hit $1-million. One million dollars. Average."

                  http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/20...he_its_di.html

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

                    Are you the "Envy of the world" when CA fiscal position is better than yours?

                    State/ProvincePopulationDeficitPer Capita Deficit
                    Ontario11,410,046$21 Billion$1,840
                    California36,961,664$20 Billion$ 541


                    I think...not!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Is Canada The Envy Of The World?

                      Originally posted by Spartacus View Post
                      http://www.greaterfool.ca/

                      An excerpt from a recent post:

                      Every day, while prices rage and realtors fan the inferno, more smart people like this push back. They resist the family, societal, workplace and peer pressure to buy a home because it’s obvious: this is the worst possible moment to make that investment. They will pay the highest price ever, be pushed into a deal without conditions or safeguards, take on mountainous mortgage debt, be guaranteed of renewing it at far higher rates, and likely in a dangerous economy.

                      Great link Sparta! Thanks.

                      Comment

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