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Re: Can Fred or Metalman or someone read this.....& tell me what it means
I think this depression, much more than anything in the past, has been caused by excessive leverage, creative financing, mountains of debt, and all the garbage that goes with it like derivatives and toxic mortgages. Instead of the old unemployment or soup-line depression, this is the debt depression.Originally posted by Mega View Post
The debt bubble is so outrageous that it may run up to $70 trillion, worldwide.
The key point is that instead of central banks working to deflate this debt bubble gradually, they are all creating more paper money and stimulus, aggravating the debt crisis. In other words, central banks, fixated on unemployment, are stimulating their economies and completely misunderstanding what is going on worldwide with debt.
Clearly, Taleb is right, and Bernanke and the other central bankers worldwide are wrong.
The most amazing part of this story, the story of this depression, is that economists still don't get it. This just irritates the hell out me. They cling to their old theories from the 1930s.
And we might soon be seeing feedback effects from inflating the worldwide debt bubble even bigger with stimulus now. So, unemployment just might grow, not shrink.
The public just might be catching on to what is happening, but the central bankers are not.Last edited by Starving Steve; July 05, 2009, 05:50 PM. -
Re: Can Fred or Metalman or someone read this.....& tell me what it means
Originally posted by Mega View Post
Pretty well the same things EJ has been saying:- There's too much debt out there, everywhere;
- No sustainable recovery until the debt is reduced to an affordable level [Taleb estimates $40 T to $70 T too much debt that has to be worked off before this thing has any chance of ending]
- Many of the things the authorities are doing are ineffective, or worse.
- This crisis is going to go on for while.
Last edited by GRG55; July 05, 2009, 09:25 PM.Comment
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Re: Can Fred or Metalman or someone read this.....& tell me what it means
Were in the Middle of a Crash 1/2 - Nassim Taleb - Dprogram ...
04:20 - 3 days ago
Were in the Middle of a Crash 2/2 - Nassim Taleb - Dprogram ... 04:20 - 3 days ago
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Re: Can Fred or Metalman or someone read this.....& tell me what it means
Hey I’m not an expert but I think it says we are screwedOriginally posted by Mega View PostComment
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Re: Can Fred or Metalman or someone read this.....& tell me what it means
janet thinks taleb's a crank...Originally posted by rabot10 View PostComment
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Re: Can Fred or Metalman or someone read this.....& tell me what it means
See.. character assasination works!Originally posted by metalman View Post
Btw, Taleb accuses her of a smear campagin; via ft-blog:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...ost-it-update/Comment
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Re: Can Fred or Metalman or someone read this.....& tell me what it means
she says he allowed a gross exaggeration of his funds' returns to stand in a magazine article... sleazy & fits the pattern.Originally posted by xela View PostSee.. character assasination works!
Btw, Taleb accuses her of a smear campagin; via ft-blog:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009...ost-it-update/Comment
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Re: Can Fred or Metalman or someone read this.....& tell me what it means
Talibi is an egoist first and foremost; and from the accounts I've read of him, an arrogant prick second. Supreme confidence and an ease at spouting pseudo-scientific platitudes. The perfect hype-man. That he is pushing a new fund is not surprising. Some of his themes have merit, though, particularly his theme that leverage = fragility and the need for more redundancy.Originally posted by metalman View PostComment
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Re: Can Fred or Metalman or someone read this.....& tell me what it means
he has a horrid record as a hedge fund manager... prefer to hear the same themes from less marginal and more original sources.Originally posted by Munger View PostComment
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