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  • #16
    Re: Cap and Trade

    Another contribution that may be helpful from AP:
    Questions and answers about the US climate bill

    By DINA CAPPIELLO and ERIC CARVIN, Associated Press Writers Thu Jun 25, 10:07 pm ET

    Cap-and-trade? Offsets? Pollution credits? The climate bill under consideration in the U.S. House of Representatives tackles global warming with new limits on pollution and a market-based approach to encourage more environmentally friendly business practices. But what exactly do the proposed rules mean, and how would they work?

    Some questions and answers about the bill, a top legislative priority for President Barack Obama:

    Q: What's the purpose of this legislation?
    A: To reduce the gases linked to global warming and to force sources for power to shift away from fossil fuels, which when burned, release heat-trapping gases, and toward cleaner sources of energy such as wind, solar and geothermal.

    Q: How does the bill accomplish this?
    A: By placing the first national limits on emissions of heat-trapping gases from major sources like power plants, refineries and factories. This limit effectively puts a price on the pollution, raising the cost for companies to continue to use fuels and electricity sources that contribute to global warming. This gives them an incentive to seek cleaner alternatives.

    Q: Is this the "cap-and-trade" idea that has been in the news?
    A: Yes. The first step in a cap-and-trade program sets a limit on the amount of gases that can be released into the atmosphere. That is the cap. Companies with facilities that are covered by the cap will then receive permits for their share of the pollution, an annual pollution allowance. This bill initially would give the bulk of the permits away for free to help ease costs, but they still would have value because there would be a limited supply. Companies that do not get a big enough allowance to cover their pollution would either have to find ways to reduce it, which can be expensive, or buy additional permits from companies that have reduced pollution enough to have allowances left over. That is the trade. Companies typically would pick the cheaper option: reducing pollution or buying permits. They also have a third choice: They can invest in pollution reductions made elsewhere, such as farms that capture methane or plant trees. These are known as offsets.

    Q: So the idea is to try to reduce the overall level of pollution, regardless of whether, say, a particular factory reduces emissions?
    A: That is true in the beginning. But as the cap gets lower and lower, reaching an 83 percent reduction by 2050, eventually all polluters will have to reduce. It is merely a question of when. For instance, it will be very tough for coal plants to reduce emissions at the outset of the program because the technology to capture and store carbon dioxide is not yet commercially available. It probably is 10 to 20 years away. So they will be buying offsets and buying allowances from other entities that will have an easier time.

    Q: Do most environmentalists support this approach?
    A: Most do, at least broadly. Cap-and-trade has had success. Since 1990, the United States has had a cap-and-trade program for sulfur dioxide, the main culprit in acid rain. Democrats have had to make a lot of concessions to win votes for the current bill from lawmakers from coal, oil and farm states. Some liberal environmentalists think these concessions weaken the bill. For instance, the bill's sponsors have had to lower the cap — it originally called for a 20 percent cut by 2020 — to 17 percent. Research suggests that much deeper cuts will be needed globally to avert the most serious consequences of global warming.

    Q: Who opposes this approach, and why?
    A: Republicans, some farm groups, some environmentalists, the oil industry, which feels it has received too few free permits, and some moderate Democrats. They all worry about the cost and the loss of jobs if industries move to countries that do not have controls on greenhouse gases. The bill has provisions to prevent this, but there are questions whether they will work. Republicans call the bill a national energy tax on every American family. This is because, as industries spend money to reduce pollution or buy credits, they will pass on that cost to consumers, the people who turn on the lights or pump gas in their cars. Recent analyses by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office show that the new rules eventually will cost the average household an extra $175 a year.

    Q: Under the bill, what will happen to companies that do not follow the rules?
    A: If they exceed their limit, they will have to pay a fine equal to twice the cap-and-trade price for each ton of pollution over the limit.

    Q: Other than costs potentially being passed along to consumers, will this affect most Americans' day-to-day lives?

    A: It fundamentally will change how we use, produce and consume energy, ending the country's love affair with big gas-guzzling cars and its insatiable appetite for cheap electricity. This bill will put smaller, more efficient cars on the road, swap smokestacks for windmills and solar panels, and transform the appliances you can buy for your home.

    Q: How quickly will we notice these changes?
    A: Some will occur more quickly than others. For instance, measures to boost energy efficiency in buildings and appliances are the low-hanging fruit that does not require major infrastructure changes or new technologies. Other changes are decades off and probably will come when the cap gets more stringent and permits get more expensive. For instance, the country can build more wind and more solar panels, but currently it lacks the transmission lines to move the energy they generate to population centers. As for cars: While more efficient models are a near-term reality, it will take a while to change out the fleet. Some people will continue driving 10-year-old gas guzzlers.

    Q: What are the chances this bill will become law?
    A: Both the Obama administration and Democrats want this bill passed by the end of the year, when negotiations for a new international agreement to reduce greenhouse gases get under way in Copenhagen, Denmark. Even as Democrats hold the majority in Congress, it will not be easy to get this enacted. Many moderate Democrats from rural states and conservative districts are worried about the costs and complexity of the legislation when the economy is already weak. Very few Republicans, if any, are expected to support the bill. Approval of a climate bill in the Senate has been viewed as a long shot. Parts of the bill may need to be changed to secure approval in the Senate.

    Q: Why is it so important to tackle global warming anyway? A: Left untended, scientists say, global warming will cause sea levels to rise, increase storms and worsen air pollution. For these reasons, the Environmental Protection Agency recently concluded that six greenhouse gases pose dangers to human health and welfare. And politically, without U.S. action, developing countries like China probably will not agree to mandatory pollution limits.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Cap and Trade

      Originally posted by GRG55 View Post
      Actually if I understand correctly part of the thinking behind cap and trade is to create a market mechanism to direct carbon reducing investments to where they have the most effect. In other words instead of mandating that everyone has to reduce carbon by the same [propotionate] amount, those that can do so more efficiently can benefit by trading some of that benefit to those industrial sectors that are unable...presumably the end result is the "biggest bang for the buck"...that's the theory at least.

      Now, once Wall Street gets involved no doubt something else will be the result. But then we'll have the Federal Reserve with all its new regulatory powers to protect us, so no need to lose any sleep...:rolleyes:





      This is setting up to be one of the most polarizing debates ever. Interesting how a little recession and a few job losses around the world can so quickly change the tone.

      From today's WSJ:
      The Climate Change Climate Change

      The number of skeptics is swelling everywhere.

      JUNE 26, 2009
      Steve Fielding recently asked the Obama administration to reassure him on the science of man-made global warming. When the administration proved unhelpful, Mr. Fielding decided to vote against climate-change legislation.

      If you haven't heard of this politician, it's because he's a member of the Australian Senate. As the U.S. House of Representatives prepares to pass a climate-change bill, the Australian Parliament is preparing to kill its own country's carbon-emissions scheme. Why? A growing number of Australian politicians, scientists and citizens once again doubt the science of human-caused global warming.

      Among the many reasons President Barack Obama and the Democratic majority are so intent on quickly jamming a cap-and-trade system through Congress is because the global warming tide is again shifting. It turns out Al Gore and the United Nations (with an assist from the media), did a little too vociferous a job smearing anyone who disagreed with them as "deniers." The backlash has brought the scientific debate roaring back to life in Australia, Europe, Japan and even, if less reported, the U.S.

      In April, the Polish Academy of Sciences published a document challenging man-made global warming. In the Czech Republic, where President Vaclav Klaus remains a leading skeptic, today only 11% of the population believes humans play a role. In France, President Nicolas Sarkozy wants to tap Claude Allegre to lead the country's new ministry of industry and innovation. Twenty years ago Mr. Allegre was among the first to trill about man-made global warming, but the geochemist has since recanted. New Zealand last year elected a new government, which immediately suspended the country's weeks-old cap-and-trade program.

      The number of skeptics, far from shrinking, is swelling. Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe now counts more than 700 scientists who disagree with the U.N. -- 13 times the number who authored the U.N.'s 2007 climate summary for policymakers. Joanne Simpson, the world's first woman to receive a Ph.D. in meteorology, expressed relief upon her retirement last year that she was finally free to speak "frankly" of her nonbelief. Dr. Kiminori Itoh, a Japanese environmental physical chemist who contributed to a U.N. climate report, dubs man-made warming "the worst scientific scandal in history." Norway's Ivar Giaever, Nobel Prize winner for physics, decries it as the "new religion." A group of 54 noted physicists, led by Princeton's Will Happer, is demanding the American Physical Society revise its position that the science is settled. (Both Nature and Science magazines have refused to run the physicists' open letter.)
      The collapse of the "consensus" has been driven by reality.

      The inconvenient truth is that the earth's temperatures have flat-lined since 2001, despite growing concentrations of C02. Peer-reviewed research has debunked doomsday scenarios about the polar ice caps, hurricanes, malaria, extinctions, rising oceans. A global financial crisis has politicians taking a harder look at the science that would require them to hamstring their economies to rein in carbon.

      Credit for Australia's own era of renewed enlightenment goes to Dr. Ian Plimer, a well-known Australian geologist. Earlier this year he published "Heaven and Earth," a damning critique of the "evidence" underpinning man-made global warming. The book is already in its fifth printing. So compelling is it that Paul Sheehan, a noted Australian columnist -- and ardent global warming believer -- in April humbly pronounced it "an evidence-based attack on conformity and orthodoxy, including my own, and a reminder to respect informed dissent and beware of ideology subverting evidence." Australian polls have shown a sharp uptick in public skepticism; the press is back to questioning scientific dogma; blogs are having a field day.

      The rise in skepticism also came as Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, elected like Mr. Obama on promises to combat global warming, was attempting his own emissions-reduction scheme. His administration was forced to delay the implementation of the program until at least 2011, just to get the legislation through Australia's House. The Senate was not so easily swayed.

      Mr. Fielding, a crucial vote on the bill, was so alarmed by the renewed science debate that he made a fact-finding trip to the U.S., attending the Heartland Institute's annual conference for climate skeptics. He also visited with Joseph Aldy, Mr. Obama's special assistant on energy and the environment, where he challenged the Obama team to address his doubts. They apparently didn't.

      This week Mr. Fielding issued a statement: He would not be voting for the bill. He would not risk job losses on "unconvincing green science." The bill is set to founder as the Australian parliament breaks for the winter.

      Republicans in the U.S. have, in recent years, turned ever more to the cost arguments against climate legislation. That's made sense in light of the economic crisis. If Speaker Nancy Pelosi fails to push through her bill, it will be because rural and Blue Dog Democrats fret about the economic ramifications. Yet if the rest of the world is any indication, now might be the time for U.S. politicians to re-engage on the science. One thing for sure: They won't be alone.
      What I get from this debate so far is:

      1) Cap and Trade is a means to control the method of production on everything through a progressive tax.
      2) The US tax bill will have no effect on the wealthy, harm the middle class make it harder for them to bring themselves and ther families to the wealthy class as well as drive the marginal middle class to the welfare class and pay the welfare class.
      3) The financiers will have a field day.

      How arrogant has man become that they now think they (the elite) can correctly model, shape and effectuate the change of the universe and mother nature when they still have a hard time predicting the weather.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Cap and Trade

        Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
        I think Munger's basic outline is a good frame. I'll skip points 1&2 as they have been decided in the US. In recent surveys, 75% of the American public wants to control GHGs and have voted congress people into power that are going to create that legislation. So let's skip to point 3 which gets to the heart of your question. For the US we may want to ask what HR 2454, (the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009), is all about. I think the House is voting on this legislation today.

        The bill sets a cap on GHG emmissions which effectively raises the price of carbon based fuel. By doing this the bill will raise the mean cost of all energy. It is a tax on gasoline, coal, natural gas, etc.

        In a secondary way it will raise the cost of items like food that require large energy inputs. To off-set the regressive nature of this tax, the bill sets aside a portion of the tax as credits for low and middle income families in an attempt to mitigate the overall cost to those least able to pay. CBO estimates the average cost to be $890 per family in the year 2020 before credits and $175 after credits are applied. The lowest 20% of income earners would receive an overall $40 credit. This is an attempt to make the tax somewhat progressive but a closer reading will show that the highest burden is on middle income earners, (no surprise there...).

        Within the context of this bill, CBO estimates the cost per ton of CO2 emissions to be $28. To get a rough estimate of the additional cost for say, a gallon of gasoline we can calculate the weight of CO2 emissions from a gallon of gas, (about 20 lbs.), divide 2,000 lbs. by 20 and then $28 by the result. As you can see, the tax on a gallon of gasoline will be about 28 cents in 2020, (using 2010 US$ values). If a person drives a car getting 20 mpg, 15,000 miles per year, it will result in $210 per year in additional taxes.

        The full CBO report is here if you'd like more detail:
        http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/103xx/doc...TradeCosts.htm
        Yes they are voting on it today.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Cap and Trade

          Cap-and-trade based upon the junk science of global warming could very well spell the end of the Democrats in Congress in the U.S, and good riddance (sp?) to the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Diane Feinstein.

          For global warming idiots, especially global warming idiots who run the BBC World Television Service, the record low for June was tied on June 21st at Oakland International Airport, just across the bay from San Francisco Airport: the low was 50F (10C), tieing (sp?) the record set at Oakland Int'l Airport in 1953.

          June remains at twenty-seven year lows for cold all along the west coast of North America and in the north-east U.S, according to FOX News. The current temperature at time of writing at Watsonville Airport in California: 55F (just over 12C) at 10:33AM local time. (Watsonville is on Monterey Bay, east of Santa Cruz.)
          Last edited by Starving Steve; June 26, 2009, 12:40 PM.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Cap and Trade

            The Cool temperatures are just another sign of global warming. Global warming causes unexplainable wide temperature variations. The heavy snow pack in North America this past winter was a direct result of Global Warming. Snow covering large sections of North America during Dec- May - what else could cause it. You Global Warming dis-believers aren't intelligent enough to fully understand theunexplainable changes in our atmosphere.

            The Good News is that Politicians can fix any problem. The astute Political elites were key in avoiding a Banking in 2008. Without their intervention nd management of the crisis the world economy would be in shambles. Thank God we have these great and clever people to lead the Civilized world away from the brink of an Environmental diaster!

            My only hope is that Barney Frank head any Cap and Trade Sub-commitees in the House of Representatives. Perhaps he can steer this new law as well as he steered the Financial sector away from a complete collapse as the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee.

            I sleep well knowing the kind of talent we have working for us in WashingtonDC.

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Cap and Trade

              I fear for my children. I am middle class, a few more $1000 dings to my income and I will have no discretionary spending capacity. Who do these pukes think we are? The other dings are increased taxes at the state and local levels. I'm sure federal is going to go up soon too.

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Cap and Trade

                Originally posted by BK View Post
                The Cool temperatures are just another sign of global warming. Global warming causes unexplainable wide temperature variations. The heavy snow pack in North America this past winter was a direct result of Global Warming. Snow covering large sections of North America during Dec- May - what else could cause it. You Global Warming dis-believers aren't intelligent enough to fully understand theunexplainable changes in our atmosphere.

                The Good News is that Politicians can fix any problem. The astute Political elites were key in avoiding a Banking in 2008. Without their intervention nd management of the crisis the world economy would be in shambles. Thank God we have these great and clever people to lead the Civilized world away from the brink of an Environmental diaster!

                My only hope is that Barney Frank head any Cap and Trade Sub-commitees in the House of Representatives. Perhaps he can steer this new law as well as he steered the Financial sector away from a complete collapse as the Chair of the House Financial Services Committee.

                I sleep well knowing the kind of talent we have working for us in WashingtonDC.
                The glaciers reforming in the Cascade Mountains are part of global warming too. And the ice in the Arctic Ocean was thick this past winter, but I only imagined that. And the record lows or near record lows at SF Airport (where I check temperatures) were part of global warming too. December's unusual cold all along the west coast of North America was part of global warming too. ( My pants are wet laughing! )

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Cap and Trade

                  Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
                  Cap-and-trade based upon the junk science of global warming could very well spell the end of the Democrats in Congress in the U.S, and good riddance (sp?) to the likes of Nancy Pelosi and Diane Feinstein.

                  For global warming idiots, especially global warming idiots who run the BBC World Television Service, the record low for June was tied on June 21st at Oakland International Airport, just across the bay from San Francisco Airport: the low was 50F (10C), tieing (sp?) the record set at Oakland Int'l Airport in 1953.

                  June remains at twenty-seven year lows for cold all along the west coast of North America and in the north-east U.S, according to FOX News. The current temperature at time of writing at Watsonville Airport in California: 55F (just over 12C) at 10:33AM local time. (Watsonville is on Monterey Bay, east of Santa Cruz.)
                  I know, right. It's fricking freeezing in my office today as well, lending yet further evidence to your thesis.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Cap and Trade

                    Originally posted by Guinnesstime View Post
                    So instead of trying to fix the problem all cap and trade does is just tax it?
                    To be clear, trading under a cap doesn't obviate the effect of the cap. Bob trading some of his allotment to Alice doesn't change the total. There is no theoretical problem with cap-and-trade as a means of regulating carbon emissions. The practical reason it won't work is that (a) energy consumption is tied strongly to standard of living, and (b) humans tend to pursue their immediate self interest to the detriment of their long-term interest. Assuming that Munger's controversial issues (1) and (2) are decided in the affirmative, the caps will be set too high (too many emission permits will be issued), and the laws will be repealed or suspended when folks realize that their standard of living is getting squeezed. I've said it before and I'll say it again -- if catastrophic man-made global warming is real, we're not going to deal with it by controlling emissions. We're going to resort to "climate engineering" in a crisis, at the last moment, because barring a green energy technological breakthrough, it will be impossible to marshall the political will to control emissions to the degree required.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Cap and Trade

                      Originally posted by Munger View Post
                      I know, right. It's fricking freeezing in my office today as well, lending yet further evidence to your thesis.
                      We switched from Fahrenheit to Celsius and now it's only 20 degrees in the office! Oh, I forgot, it's called Global Climate Change, not Global Warming......It was great to see the thread get past page one before it devolved. Good work Munger but you'll have to redouble your efforts now.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Cap and Trade

                        I'm not up on the details of the bill, but won't it just drive jobs and businesses overseas to countries that don't have Cap and Trade?

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Cap and Trade

                          Careful observations of temperature trends at airports, away from buildings, always trumps whatever global climate models predict about climate. And the same holds true in economics: actual observations of the economy trump all the predictions of economists coming from economic theory and econometric models.

                          Finally, I have never heard of a science where issues are "settled", and no-one can present or publish evidence to the contrary. Again, what is going-on in universities? Why isn't there critical thinking by students and professors?

                          With observations of global chill coming in nearly everywhere and observations of the failure of Bernanke's monetary policy to work, why aren't students asking questions in universities? And why isn't Congress asking questions too?

                          And to-day in Congress, Nancy Pelosi was passing-out chocolates (sp?) to try to swing votes in favour of Cap-and-Trade. Canada: you could be next for Cap-and-Trade in Parliament, so get ready.
                          Last edited by Starving Steve; June 26, 2009, 05:23 PM.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            Re: Cap and Trade

                            Originally posted by santafe2 View Post
                            I think Munger's basic outline is a good frame. I'll skip points 1&2 as they have been decided in the US. In recent surveys, 75% of the American public wants to control GHGs and have voted congress people into power that are going to create that legislation. So let's skip to point 3 which gets to the heart of your question. For the US we may want to ask what HR 2454, (the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009), is all about. I think the House is voting on this legislation today.

                            The bill sets a cap on GHG emmissions which effectively raises the price of carbon based fuel. By doing this the bill will raise the mean cost of all energy. It is a tax on gasoline, coal, natural gas, etc.

                            In a secondary way it will raise the cost of items like food that require large energy inputs. To off-set the regressive nature of this tax, the bill sets aside a portion of the tax as credits for low and middle income families in an attempt to mitigate the overall cost to those least able to pay. CBO estimates the average cost to be $890 per family in the year 2020 before credits and $175 after credits are applied. The lowest 20% of income earners would receive an overall $40 credit. This is an attempt to make the tax somewhat progressive but a closer reading will show that the highest burden is on middle income earners, (no surprise there...).

                            Within the context of this bill, CBO estimates the cost per ton of CO2 emissions to be $28. To get a rough estimate of the additional cost for say, a gallon of gasoline we can calculate the weight of CO2 emissions from a gallon of gas, (about 20 lbs.), divide 2,000 lbs. by 20 and then $28 by the result. As you can see, the tax on a gallon of gasoline will be about 28 cents in 2020, (using 2010 US$ values). If a person drives a car getting 20 mpg, 15,000 miles per year, it will result in $210 per year in additional taxes.

                            The full CBO report is here if you'd like more detail:
                            http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/103xx/doc...TradeCosts.htm
                            As I understand it, the income tax was initially set at 1%, buyer beware.
                            As an aside, this may also be an attempt to condition the US citizen to accepting a tax from an outside authority (UN). Oh well, who cares. What's on TV?

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: Cap and Trade

                              Originally posted by Starving Steve View Post
                              Careful observations of temperature trends at airports, away from buildings, always trumps whatever global climate models predict about climate. And the same holds true in economics: actual observations of the economy trump all the predictions of economists coming from economic theory and econometric models.



                              Science dictates we must put equal weight on NASA's mean global temperature as calculated by weighted average of meteorological station readings and your anecdotes about the SF airport.

                              Many more dubious graphs:
                              http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Cap and Trade

                                Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                                I'm not up on the details of the bill, but won't it just drive jobs and businesses overseas to countries that don't have Cap and Trade?
                                I have heard that many European countries have passed similar Cap and Trade scheme. If true, what impact has it had on their economies? I am genuinely inquiring as I am under-read on this subject and would appreciate the speediness of iTulipers on this one

                                Comment

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