Cali Black Swan in Waiting

[don]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...eothermal.html

[dummass]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

I wonder if the opposite might be true. by releasing the energy in a series of small quakes, it may prevent the buildup needed to trigger the Big One.

[don]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

I wonder if the opposite might be true. by releasing the energy in a series of small quakes, it may prevent the buildup needed to trigger the Big One.

You could convince me, sounds rationale, but it's the opposite of what the piece was saying.

[ASH]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

I wonder if the opposite might be true. by releasing the energy in a series of small quakes, it may prevent the buildup needed to trigger the Big One.

Perhaps the issue is whether the energy has already built up to a level where its release would result in the Big One. I think this is similar to starting controlled burns to prevent the buildup of fuel for a major forest fire. Before a lot of undergrowth has built up, the controlled burn is helpful; after a lot of undergrowth has already accumulated, it may be difficult to burn off in a controlled fashion.

Is there a geologist in the house?

[santafe2]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

I wonder if the opposite might be true. by releasing the energy in a series of small quakes, it may prevent the buildup needed to trigger the Big One.

Large earthquakes in California are caused by the movement of two tectonic plates along the San Andreas fault and by other large faults. Most small earthquakes are on smaller faults. The Southern San Andreas shifts/slips about every 150 years and is currently overdue by 2 years, (It's one of the reasons we moved out of LA). To my mind, it's foolish to have your money invested in housing while waiting for what will most likely be one of the worst natural disasters in human history.

The last time the Southern San Andreas shifted, was the Fort Tejon quake in 1857. That was one of the worst ever in the US. It shifted the earth by 15-30 feet and opened the earth for 220-250 miles along the fault. Most people in LA have no idea how bad this will be.

If anyone is in So Cal, you can drive through the El Cajon pass and see the San Andreas. As you do, look at all the houses that have been built within a few miles of the fault and you'll get a sense of how devastating the next quake will be.

[santafe2]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

Is there a geologist in the house?

I lived across the street from Kate Hutton for several years. Does that count?

More seriously, my father-in-law is now retired but was an educator and So Cal geologist. For 15 years he kept telling us we were nuts to have our investments in housing in So Cal. After the cluster of quakes from 1989-1995 we finally decided he was right and we moved a couple of years later. Really, we were just tired of paying to repair and retrofit our home after each quake.

[solotar]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

This looks vaguely like the plot to the recent Star Trek movie, right?

[flintlock]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

I lived across the street from Kate Hutton for several years. Does that count?

More seriously, my father-in-law is now retired but was an educator and So Cal geologist. For 15 years he kept telling us we were nuts to have our investments in housing in So Cal. After the cluster of quakes from 1989-1995 we finally decided he was right and we moved a couple of years later. Really, we were just tired of paying to repair and retrofit our home after each quake.

Who is Kate Hutton?

[qwerty]

Movie Plots

This looks vaguely like the plot to the recent Star Trek movie, right?

I was thinking more of the first Superman movie, where Lex Luthor has bought up all of the land immediately to the east of the San Andreas fault - Instant new beachfront property after he triggers the Big One.

[rabot10]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

Large earthquakes in California are caused by the movement of two tectonic plates along the San Andreas fault and by other large faults. Most small earthquakes are on smaller faults. The Southern San Andreas shifts/slips about every 150 years and is currently overdue by 2 years, (It's one of the reasons we moved out of LA). To my mind, it's foolish to have your money invested in housing while waiting for what will most likely be one of the worst natural disasters in human history.

The last time the Southern San Andreas shifted, was the Fort Tejon quake in 1857. That was one of the worst ever in the US. It shifted the earth by 15-30 feet and opened the earth for 220-250 miles along the fault. Most people in LA have no idea how bad this will be.

If anyone is in So Cal, you can drive through the El Cajon pass and see the San Andreas. As you do, look at all the houses that have been built within a few miles of the fault and you'll get a sense of how devastating the next quake will be.

Could be a very good time to get a California

[we_are_toast]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

The amount of energy stored and released in a major earthquake along a tectonic plate is unimaginable. The energy released in the 1906 SF earthquake was roughly equivalent to 50,000 atomic bombs the size that was detonated in New Mexico in 1945.

Drilling holes and fracturing the rock may register on a seismograph, but it's a long, long, way both in depth and in energy level from triggering a major earthquake. There are many potential black swans around, but I don't think this one of them.

[santafe2]

Re: Cali Black Swan in Waiting

Who is Kate Hutton?

Caltech's Dr. Kate is who the LA media go to when their houses and freeways break due to serious or semi-serious seismic activity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kate_Hutton