The Weimar Nightmare in Review

[metalman]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

And we discussed it just like this. And then EJ got mad that we all got hysterical and started talking about guns. So, hold your gold.

hyperinflation threads on internet forums lead to golds & guns... as teenagers after a few beers get to sex and defecation.

[goadam1]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

hyperinflation threads on internet forums lead to golds & guns... as teenagers after a few beers get to sex and defecation.

Always have insurance but "catastrophe fantasies" are more fun.

[touchring]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

There are significant differences between the time of Weimar republic and today that makes it an inaccurate gauge of what is to come.

1. Capital flows freely today and in huge amounts in an instant click.
2. Many people are holding dual nationalities.
3. There is more debt than there is cash.
4. People are mobile and can leave the country easily.

[radon]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

This thread is about hyperinflation and if it were to occur. I am not saying that it is going to. but if it were to occur and you did not have a years supply worth of food, the chances of you simply going "out to the bush and do some fishing" would be the same thing that one hundred thousand people would be doing as well. Angry people. Violent people. People you would not want to be standing next to with you fishing pole and can of worms. except these people will have guns instead of a shimano and will simply take your"fish" and shimano reel once they see fit.

There aren't 100K people within a 500 mile radius of me. Assuming I see anyone I doubt they'd be angry. When things get bad we usually get together to solve problems. Either you live in a different part of the world than I do or you have a low expectation of your fellows. If you really fear anarchy your best defense is to make friends with your neighbors. Seriously, a tight knit neighborhood is 100 times better than guns and ammo.

get the picture?
unprepared people die during hyperinflations.

You're jumping the shark here. Hyperinflation doesn't lead to mad max, and if it did your trailer and food stash would be easy pickings for roving bandits.

to think that a us dollar revaluation/currency collapse cannot happen within the next two years is simply being naive. 25 percent u-6(we are almost already there;presumably q2/2010)and there is going to be anarchy and civil unrest episodes abound.

Civil unrest in certain areas might be a possibility but I think you can write off any persistent anarchy. I think the case for hyperinflation is weak. If the results weren't catastrophic for my portfolio I wouldn't bother making contingency plans for it at all. I view those hedges as a sort of insurance, a policy on which I probably spent to much.

Really, there is no sense in getting paranoid about things.

[radon]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

There are significant differences between the time of Weimar republic and today that makes it an inaccurate gauge of what is to come.

1. Capital flows freely today and in huge amounts in an instant click.
2. Many people are holding dual nationalities.
3. There is more debt than there is cash.
4. People are mobile and can leave the country easily.

Are you arguing for deflation with #3? Anyway you have to love surfing that volatility.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AepyGm9Me6w

Oh yeah, those were the days.

[touchring]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

Are you arguing for deflation with #3? Anyway you have to love surfing that volatility.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AepyGm9Me6w

Oh yeah, those were the days.

There's a new word, biflation. Debt deflation combined with consumer price inflation.

[metalman]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

There's a new word, biflation. Debt deflation combined with consumer price inflation.

biflation... oh, goodie. a whole new avenue of economic ignorance explore.

[metalman]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

weimar... wrong example. try this...



itulip made the point 100 years ago... learned & then forgotten, like everything else...

For a nation to experience a hyperinflation, all four of the following conditions need to be met:

1. Large and growing external debt as a percentage of GDP with falling GDP (Yes, like the US.)
2. Politically and economically isolated and irrelevant (Not like the US. Think: Zimbabwe.)
3. No external demand for the currency (Not like the US dollar. Think: Iraqi Dinar.)
4. Political chaos (i.e., tanks rolling down the street, not like the US.)

anyone interested in the fact vs conjecture...
Inflation and Hyperinflation in the 20 Century Causes and Patterns

[kingcopper]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

I love the conversation of Itulip but when you guys go Sinclair it starts to get old. World govs. love to pretend. With T.V. and the internet, they can pretend alot. The chances of a Weimar episode are so slim as to bet against.

A dollar revaluation of say 50% is possible but won't happen quickly and will be set against a dollar that has increased artificially from more deleveraging episodes.

I've got rental real estate, a home, some debt, some gold, and some silver. I've got a couple of guns, enough ammo and an aggressive german shephard just in case. I've got a very large garden and alot of chickens.

These things I enjoy just as I enjoy Itulip's conversation!

Just enjoy life now cause we're all a bunch of assholes that know little of future events.

[metalman]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

I love the conversation of Itulip but when you guys go Sinclair it starts to get old. World govs. love to pretend. With T.V. and the internet, they can pretend alot. The chances of a Weimar episode are so slim as to bet against.

A dollar revaluation of say 50% is possible but won't happen quickly and will be set against a dollar that has increased artificially from more deleveraging episodes.

I've got rental real estate, a home, some debt, some gold, and some silver. I've got a couple of guns, enough ammo and an aggressive german shephard just in case. I've got a very large garden and alot of chickens.

These things I enjoy just as I enjoy Itulip's conversation!

Just enjoy life now cause we're all a bunch of assholes that know little of future events.

fred... why not move hyperinflation threads to rant & rave? this a silly idea... keeps coming back like a bad penny...

[goadam1]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

I am not attacking the itulip position. Their insight is incredible and the only one I trust. But trying to time a trade is still trying to time a trade no matter it's form.

I do believe we have a huge potential for doom but it could be a couple of waves away and in the meanwhile many unknowns lurk.

[goadam1]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

fred... why not move hyperinflation threads to rant & rave? this a silly idea... keeps coming back like a bad penny...

The comments are rant and rave. But the original posting was a link to a good article by Jesse about a book on Inflation.

[Kadriana]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

weimar... wrong example. try this...



itulip made the point 100 years ago... learned & then forgotten, like everything else...

anyone interested in the fact vs conjecture...
Inflation and Hyperinflation in the 20 Century Causes and Patterns

Behind Door Number One are guys who have been wrong for years on end and will stay that way unless the US enacts the kind of austerity measures the IMF once imposed on debtors: raise taxes, cut spending, send 20 million people into the unemployment lines.

Isn't that kind of what's happening? Local and state governments are cutting back and raising taxes. I know people who have had taxes raised on their electric bills. I don't know how many people are unemployed or under employed but is 20 million out of the realm of possibility?

[metalman]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

Behind Door Number One are guys who have been wrong for years on end and will stay that way unless the US enacts the kind of austerity measures the IMF once imposed on debtors: raise taxes, cut spending, send 20 million people into the unemployment lines.

Isn't that kind of what's happening? Local and state governments are cutting back and raising taxes. I know people who have had taxes raised on their electric bills. I don't know how many people are unemployed or under employed but is 20 million out of the realm of possibility?

the bolded part is the one that matters...

[makimanos]

Re: The Weimar Nightmare in Review

It's VolcKer's time. Maybe very soon. Expextation is worse than reality.