Trouble ahead for the stock market

[nero3]

Germany lags the US: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=az75gAtZJTiY

I think the markets are going down to perhaps test the march lows. It's at least coming a severe correction, taking the S&P 500 to the 850-870 range. The market have looked stretched for a long time. The massive insider selling should worry everyone. It's probably going to crash down in the next weeks, use todays bounce ?, to sell.

[phirang]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Industry guys tend to lag the market: many publicly expressed confidence in summer 2008, and now they're all panicking still.

666 on the S&P is DAMN LOW, especially if oil doesn't meaningfully correct (i.e. < 40/bbl). 666 or less implies systemic failure SOMEWHERE, not just bad earnings!

[nero3]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Industry guys tend to lag the market: many publicly expressed confidence in summer 2008, and now they're all panicking still.

666 on the S&P is DAMN LOW, especially if oil doesn't meaningfully correct (i.e. < 40/bbl). 666 or less implies systemic failure SOMEWHERE, not just bad earnings!

I am worried. I think it's going to come crashing down again. It's hard to articulate why. Look at some of the spreads between oil and gas, it's just the symptoms of speculation, disconnected from fundamentals. If the misery in the US goes on, I suspect the dollar will rally and everything else go down. Another possibility is a general sell off in US assets, that give you the "double dip" as interest rates in the US rise, sort of an Iceland, or 1949 scenario. Anyhow, I am not convinced the dollar is worse than the ruble, real or Australian dollar, the US have been more restrictive than most others in their money printing. I think it's the other way around. The US does things that feed speculation, but if that speculation ends, it will just go back down again.

I think the only way to get the economy going is for the fed to raise rates, and have a double dip recession. OR start to monetize the budget deficit. I suspect the first, but the best would be the latter, and then raise rates in a few years, however I think the economy must get a lot worse before the will to choose this route of printing money to buy the deficit as a Latin American country exist.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Even with all of the green-shoot talk that came from Team Obama and Ben the money God and after that the WSJ and CNBC, in April and May, the S&P has never passed the intra-day high from early January. That smells like a big correction is due to me.

[Kadriana]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Industry guys tend to lag the market: many publicly expressed confidence in summer 2008, and now they're all panicking still.

666 on the S&P is DAMN LOW, especially if oil doesn't meaningfully correct (i.e. < 40/bbl). 666 or less implies systemic failure SOMEWHERE, not just bad earnings!

Well, a little off topic but Michigan's pick 3 yesterday was 666.

http://www.lotterypost.com/results/mi

[flintlock]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Well, a little off topic but Michigan's pick 3 yesterday was 666.

http://www.lotterypost.com/results/mi

Too bad the winners will have to split it with 3000 other devil worshipers.

[goadam1]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I am worried. I think it's going to come crashing down again. It's hard to articulate why. Look at some of the spreads between oil and gas, it's just the symptoms of speculation, disconnected from fundamentals. If the misery in the US goes on, I suspect the dollar will rally and everything else go down. Another possibility is a general sell off in US assets, that give you the "double dip" as interest rates in the US rise, sort of an Iceland, or 1949 scenario. Anyhow, I am not convinced the dollar is worse than the ruble, real or Australian dollar, the US have been more restrictive than most others in their money printing. I think it's the other way around. The US does things that feed speculation, but if that speculation ends, it will just go back down again.

I think the only way to get the economy going is for the fed to raise rates, and have a double dip recession. OR start to monetize the budget deficit. I suspect the first, but the best would be the latter, and then raise rates in a few years, however I think the economy must get a lot worse before the will to choose this route of printing money to buy the deficit as a Latin American country exist.

I think you are a good barometer of the market. A few weeks ago you were panicking on the upside. Now you are panicking on the downside.

[karim0028]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I think you are a good barometer of the market. A few weeks ago you were panicking on the upside. Now you are panicking on the downside.

The market with all the hype that has been going on never really broke real up side resistance. It broke small resistance.... Unless it breaks 9000 & most likely even 10K (from 02-04 market) on the DOW there is still a very high likely hood its going down... As it still conforms to the downward trend line and is still within the range of the previous range.... Add all the insider selling and it doesnt make for a pretty picture...

TA aside, fundamentals blow hard.... All the green shoots talk is more like green shit... I know folks will say TA is vodoo, it does work, but there is a completely different reason for using it, and that plain and simple is trading not investing... To me that is what Nero and Lukester were portraying not the same thing as itulips philosophy as investing for longterm... These are short term blips on the radar...

I wouldn't invest in equity markets with a ten foot poll until i see a change in fundamentals, and i just dont see it yet. Thats my opinion for what ever its worth (not much , but to each his own....

DJI_6_16_09.jpg

[Moe_Gamble]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I am worried. I think it's going to come crashing down again.

Don't sell until you feel confident that it can only go up.

[Raz]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I just started a thread in Resources titled "Stock Market Research".
(I didn't want to post research in the public forums.)

I'm just as apprehensive as Nero3.


Check it out.

[nero3]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Don't sell until you feel confident that it can only go up.

I feel that works in a structural bull-market, but not in bear market rallies, even in cyclical bulls, in secular bear markets, however I think you are certainly onto something.

I had a stock that just suddenly went to nothing last week, that was certainly a wake up call for me.

[nero3]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I think stocks will really at the end of the session now..It did not yesterday, but I think it's likely today.

I think the export sector is in a structural bull in the US, (not mentioning cars). And that depends on a weak dollar.



I also think commercial real estate might survive this downturn much better than residential. As commercial real estate is very much connected to the weak dollar, similar to the export sector. The import boom, is more connected to the residential boom.

[touchring]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I think stocks will really at the end of the session now..It did not yesterday, but I think it's likely today.

I think the export sector is in a structural bull in the US, (not mentioning cars). And that depends on a weak dollar.



I also think commercial real estate might survive this downturn much better than residential. As commercial real estate is very much connected to the weak dollar, similar to the export sector. The import boom, is more connected to the residential boom.

In countries that have experienced severe recession in the past 20 years, commercial real estate are known to fall even more than residential real estate, eventually. People still buy homes when they get married or have more children, the same cannot be said of commercial property.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanes...t_price_bubble

Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 100 million yen (approximately $1 million US dollars) per square meter ($93,000 per square foot). Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak, but still managed to be listed as the most expensive in the world until being surpassed in the late 2000s by Moscow and other upstarts. Tens of trillions of dollars worth were wiped out with the combined collapse of the Tokyo stock and real estate markets. Only in 2007 had property prices begun to rise; however, they began to fall in late 2008 due to the financial crisis.

[touchring]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I think stocks will really at the end of the session now..It did not yesterday, but I think it's likely today.

I think the export sector is in a structural bull in the US, (not mentioning cars). And that depends on a weak dollar.



I also think commercial real estate might survive this downturn much better than residential. As commercial real estate is very much connected to the weak dollar, similar to the export sector. The import boom, is more connected to the residential boom.

In countries that have experienced severe recession in the past 20 years, commercial real estate are known to fall even more than residential real estate, eventually. Homes are a basic necessity.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanes...t_price_bubble

Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 100 million yen (approximately $1 million US dollars) per square meter ($93,000 per square foot). Prices were only marginally less in other large business districts of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts had slumped to less than 1 percent of its peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were less than a tenth of their peak, but still managed to be listed as the most expensive in the world until being surpassed in the late 2000s by Moscow and other upstarts. Tens of trillions of dollars worth were wiped out with the combined collapse of the Tokyo stock and real estate markets. Only in 2007 had property prices begun to rise; however, they began to fall in late 2008 due to the financial crisis.

[charliebrown]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Actually I think we can see below 600 on bad earnings.
Other recesssions, and market crashes, since 1960 have seen s&P hit around a p.e. of 9 on trailing 12 month earnings. Anyhow, since the last reading I have (end of may) for the S&P is p.e. 17.8 ttm (aren't we in a recession?) and reading of 919, if the P.E. were to go to 9, we're at s&p sub 500. Now earnings might not collapse but another wave of panic and risk tolerance may evaporate, meaning equity holders are not going to hold stocks with an average p/e of 17.8.

Since the market cap of the entire U.S. equity market is around 10T, can't team obama just buy it? What the heck is a T dollars anymore? Seems like walking around money