Trouble ahead for the stock market

[ax]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Actually I think we can see below 600 on bad earnings.
Other recesssions, and market crashes, since 1960 have seen s&P hit around a p.e. of 9 on trailing 12 month earnings. Anyhow, since the last reading I have (end of may) for the S&P is p.e. 17.8 ttm (aren't we in a recession?) and reading of 919, if the P.E. were to go to 9, we're at s&p sub 500. Now earnings might not collapse but another wave of panic and risk tolerance may evaporate, meaning equity holders are not going to hold stocks with an average p/e of 17.8.

Since the market cap of the entire U.S. equity market is around 10T, can't team obama just buy it? What the heck is a T dollars anymore? Seems like walking around money

Do you really think the govt. will allow the banks to produce poor earnings? Are you forgetting "record" Q1 earnings? Unfortunately, I think the charade will continue and may prop up a wounded market after the next few weeks.

[Chomsky]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I think stocks will really at the end of the session now..It did not yesterday, but I think it's likely today.

Doesn't look like it, with just 7 minutes left.

[ax]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Doesn't look like it, with just 7 minutes left.

Ha ha, no, but it did with 15 minutes left. This market is nuts.

[nero3]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Ha ha, no, but it did with 15 minutes left. This market is nuts.

I was unloading like crazy. that's what moved the markets down again

It was strange. Well, I guess, the market will rebound some tomorrow again.

It will be interesting to see if it gain regain it's growth path.

I unloaded mostly high beta stocks. I had lots of gain, and wanted to take them. I think it's better to have lower beta stocks, if having stocks going forward.

[ax]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I was unloading like crazy. that's what moved the markets down again

It was strange. Well, I guess, the market will rebound some tomorrow again.

It will be interesting to see if it gain regain it's growth path.

I hope not, I'm poised for the plunge.

[johngaltfla]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Do you really think the govt. will allow the banks to produce poor earnings? Are you forgetting "record" Q1 earnings? Unfortunately, I think the charade will continue and may prop up a wounded market after the next few weeks.

They can "prop" some of the earnings up but all of the resources are drained out from the Christmas pop and the reality of the GM and Chrysler BK's will impact Q2 GDP far worse than the morons in DC wish to acknowledge. Look at the total data as a package then realize that the fundamentals and tipping the hand as to why the technicals look so horrid. My hint was studying the S&P 500 Insurance sector last night and the news from that industry. IMHO, that is the next financial disaster as they were major participants in the CMBS nonsense and without further securitization of debt there will be no issuance and thus no economic growth.

No growth, no more equity rally and reality sets in with the P/E's returning to a norm of 6-8 times earning until there is a real recovery in the picture.

S&P 550-600 here we come. It would be healthier if it happened now. If they pump it up until fall and then it craters then they are asking for some serious trouble as that is my time fram for the largest Government bond crash in history; the UK then the US.

[johngaltfla]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Here are the graphs that have me somewhat concerned; there is no possibility of green shoots or a recovery with the Federal debt load skyrocketing and sponging up investment dollars and with historically low manufacturing figures...

[ax]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

I was unloading like crazy. that's what moved the markets down again

It was strange. Well, I guess, the market will rebound some tomorrow again.

It will be interesting to see if it gain regain it's growth path.

I unloaded mostly high beta stocks. I had lots of gain, and wanted to take them. I think it's better to have lower beta stocks, if having stocks going forward.

looks like you might get your bounce a day late, Nero, was hoping we we just continue to crash and burn.

[nero3]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

looks like you might get your bounce a day late, Nero, was hoping we we just continue to crash and burn.

Actually, the bounce, for selling was yesterday, the first two hours of the session. The indexes kind of lie today, it's the deflationary plays that are up today, rotation towards defensive stocks, it's really not a bullish move today. I am unsure how long this will go on.

[nero3]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Here are the graphs that have me somewhat concerned; there is no possibility of green shoots or a recovery with the Federal debt load skyrocketing and sponging up investment dollars and with historically low manufacturing figures...

These charts are actually bullish for stocks, (meaning that if you just buy now and hold, it should be smart) if you look at previous market lows, you will see the place we are at now, is quite typical for lows on the graphs. Anyway, I think we are getting down now to the point that some, of the bulls, that were waiting for this correction, in their perception of a bull market, are ready to buy, so any good news tomorrow is likely to cause a quite good day tomorrow I think.

[johngaltfla]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

These charts are actually bullish for stocks, (meaning that if you just buy now and hold, it should be smart) if you look at previous market lows, you will see the place we are at now, is quite typical for lows on the graphs. Anyway, I think we are getting down now to the point that some, of the bulls, that were waiting for this correction, in their perception of a bull market, are ready to buy, so any good news tomorrow is likely to cause a quite good day tomorrow I think.

I must respectfully disagree. We could see a mild bounce tomorrow on some good first time claims numbers but to be honest, I expect another grind up then down at the end of the day. Looking at several key sectors several have broken the 21 DMA, more the 50 DMA now and the big two, JPM and GS got hit hard today. Add in the regional banking index and you see the formula for mass confusion. By next Tuesday we should see the S&P violate 892 then pause around 870-873.

[nero3]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

Especially the first of these charts show that this might be a good time to buy stocks for a long term investors. we are at lows as in 70-75-82-91,2003, all of course were good times. I don't mean that this is a good time for a trade, as I think it will go on further down, but for long term it would not surprise me if this is a good entrance, history says so.

[nero3]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

maybe the pullback is already over. I think maybe the market mood will change today. However, who knows. I am feeling more mixed now than yesterday.

[metalman]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

maybe the pullback is already over. I think maybe the market mood will change today. However, who knows. I am feeling more mixed now than yesterday.

can you make $$$ trading on how you feel one day to the next?

[nero3]

Re: Trouble ahead for the stock market

can you make $$$ trading on how you feel one day to the next?

I usually feel very sick in my whole body, like some kind of migraine when there is market corrections. So it is possible to take the signals early. Now I feel it is easing up a big, so maybe the market feel that way to. I am not a good trader, however I feel good about today.