See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

[c1ue]

http://railfax.transmatch.com/

Definitely buying a round in Vegas this weekend for the lucky soon to be ex-bachelor who provided this link.

Total North American Rail Traffic
Combined US, Canadian and Mexican Traffic

North American Major Commodity Groups	Total	Grain	Chemicals	Food	Forest	Metals	Coal	Autos	Intermodal
Current Week
Vs. 2008	(20.8%)	(9.3%)	(17.6%)	(10.7%)	(23.4%)	(59.5%)	(9.3%)	(50.5%)	(20.1%)
Vs. 2007	(21.3%)	(6.3%)	(16.1%)	(7.7%)	(31.4%)	(61.5%)	(6.7%)	(60.2%)	(19.8%)
4 Week Rolling Avg.
Vs. 2008	(22.1%)	(14.3%)	(17.7%)	(10.1%)	(28.0%)	(59.9%)	(13.2%)	(50.3%)	(19.1%)
Vs. 2007	(22.5%)	(6.9%)	(16.9%)	(7.8%)	(35.0%)	(59.2%)	(13.1%)	(59.6%)	(18.8%)
Quarter to Date
Vs. 2008	(22.2%)	(16.1%)	(19.6%)	(12.2%)	(28.5%)	(54.4%)	(15.2%)	(47.2%)	(18.9%)
Vs. 2007	(22.5%)	(6.9%)	(19.4%)	(9.3%)	(36.7%)	(54.6%)	(12.5%)	(57.7%)	(19.2%)
Year to Date
Vs. 2008	(18.8%)	(15.0%)	(19.3%)	(11.3%)	(26.1%)	(44.7%)	(9.5%)	(48.9%)	(16.7%)
Vs. 2007	(18.8%)	(3.7%)	(17.8%)	(7.1%)	(36.2%)	(44.9%)	(5.9%)	(55.5%)	(17.7%)

[johngaltfla]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

Air, intermodal, container lines and trucking are all in similarly bad shape. The only green shoots are those smoked at Bubblevision.

[jk]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

great link. great graphs at the link. thanks, c1ue.

[bart]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

The latest NAHB Housing Index values were either level or down:

[charliebrown]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

can confirm this. neighbor works as loader for UPRR in Chicago. Furloughed a few months ago on declining volume. Gets a call now and then if a surprise of a lot of freight comes in all at one time. This is an excpetion only working 4 days a month in general.

[Glenn Black]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

Here is "this week" vs. 2008 data graphed. Metals are in commodities, and a big part of auto industry.

2x4's etc for building are almost being given away. Most roof truss plants for residential construction are bankrupt, or on major layoffs.

Note how our friend in Singapore seems to be supported in his bullish recommendations on agriculture commodities.

Coal is mainly used for electrical generation, and metallurgical coal for coke, etc. Electrical consumption is 75% for buildings, and buildings keep consuming whether it's well used or not (ie. have to keep HVAC going even if only one tenant in building), and is therefore a very inelastic demand.

[bart]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

Port of Long Beach container traffic, with May updates:






Ports of Long Beach and LA container traffic combined, with May updates (some LA data estimated since the full May data release is still pending):

[metalman]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

so... who's taking away the long beach and la container biz? the relevant info here is decline since 2005.

[bart]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

so... who's taking away the long beach and la container biz? the relevant info here is decline since 2005.

I'm unaware of any US port that's growing at the expense of Long Beach or LA. Seattle is down this year quite a bit more than they are, for example - May is off about 32% as compared to last year where combined LA & Long Beach combined are "only" off about 18%.

Keep in mind that the stats are in TEU (Twenty foot Equivalent Unit) containers, not dollars. TEUs can be going down while actual dollar value isn't or at least not at the same rate... and do recall when Lenovo bought out IBM too, as one example of valuation issues.

[metalman]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

I'm unaware of any US port that's growing at the expense of Long Beach or LA. Seattle is down this year quite a bit more than they are, for example - May is off about 32% as compared to last year where combined LA & Long Beach combined are "only" off about 18%.

Keep in mind that the stats are in TEU (Twenty foot Equivalent Unit) containers, not dollars. TEUs can be going down while actual dollar value isn't or at least not at the same rate... and do recall when Lenovo bought out IBM too, as one example of valuation issues.

thx. curious the trend started in 2005, ain't it?

[bart]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

thx. curious the trend started in 2005, ain't it?

I'd probably put the trend change more in 2006 than 2005, since LA offset the 2005 Long Breach drop. And 2005 was when the IBM sale to Lenovo went through, for what its worth.

But yes, the drop was moving along quite well while the stock market was ignoring it and the housing/sub-prime issues, etc.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

Mexico was working on developing an alternative to Long Beach in Sonora, I think it was.

The port of Sonora was to be linked to the North American interior by the NAFTA superhighway.

Project is yet to be completed so that doesn't explain the drop in LB, though.

Also, as an very interesting aside, now that the Arctic Ocean is becoming more ice free, the port of Churchill, Manitoba was being developed to handle deep draft ships to carry freight from the Canadian interior to asia via the northwest passage. Now with collapse of FIRE, Churchill will revert back to a sleepy tourist town.

[johngaltfla]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

Mexico was working on developing an alternative to Long Beach in Sonora, I think it was.

The port of Sonora was to be linked to the North American interior by the NAFTA superhighway.

Project is yet to be completed so that doesn't explain the drop in LB, though.

Also, as an very interesting aside, now that the Arctic Ocean is becoming more ice free, the port of Churchill, Manitoba was being developed to handle deep draft ships to carry freight from the Canadian interior to asia via the northwest passage. Now with collapse of FIRE, Churchill will revert back to a sleepy tourist town.

It's definitely not coming in via other ports. From what I understand the ChiComs and many other manufacturers are denying LOC's and demanding prepayment of goods before shipping for many customers in the U.S. due to a fear of default.

[nero3]

Re: See the Green Shoots in rail traffic (great link)

Rails have been soft and getting worse since the housing market peaked. Since then, they have been more of an inflation play, but after inflation peaked with oil prices last year, they have been doing very poor.

For rails to get back on track, you need some kind of cyclical recovery taking place.