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Recession at an end in UK

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  • Recession at an end in UK

    Phew, that was a close shave!

    Recession is at an end, says leading economics thinktank
    NIESR says that industrial output has risen for two consecutive months, having hit a nadir in March

    One of Britain's leading economic thinktanks has called an end to the recession after industrial output showed its first rise in more than a year in April.

    The National Institute for Economic and Social Research said March this year was the trough of the downturn that began in the summer of 2008.

    NIESR said that output had risen in both April and May after a tough first three months of the year that saw the economy contract by 1.9%. If sustained in June, the second quarter of 2009 would show the first increase in gross domestic product since the first three months of 2008.

    "The monthly figures are inevitably erratic but the picture is coherent with the broader picture of stabilisation which has emerged since we first suggested that the output had stopped falling in our GDP release on 13 May", the NIESR said.

    Earlier, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed a 0.3% increase in production after a run of falls that began in March 2008.
    Spot the assumption:

    Recent data has suggested, however, that companies have run down stocks of goods and now need to increase output to meet demand.
    It's Economics vs Thermodynamics. Thermodynamics wins.

  • #2
    Re: Recession at an end in UK

    Behavioral economics. US to follow.

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    • #3
      Re: Recession at an end in UK

      Yes, as i sit here in my Workshop with ZERO work in, with contacts ringing me to say how many they laid off or if they are going from a 4 day to a 3 day week................i can see the "Green shoots".

      Mike

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      • #4
        Re: Recession at an end in UK

        Does this 'international' optimism about the end of the recession I hear from the business channels, some Internet spots, and other 'information' outlets have a ring of desperation about it? Or am I just imagining that?

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        • #5
          Re: Recession at an end in UK

          Originally posted by vanvaley1 View Post
          Does this 'international' optimism about the end of the recession I hear from the business channels, some Internet spots, and other 'information' outlets have a ring of desperation about it? Or am I just imagining that?
          It is the final exit strategy: pretend that everything is over, banks passed "stress test" no one knows anything about, the rates are going up not because of demand/supply of bonds but "because the economy is recovering", housing sales are up in spring and summer not because of the seasonality but "because housing has bottomed ", unemployment growth slowing non because of the BLS birth-death model adding 225 thousand fake jobs this month but because "fill in with your positive spin here" etc. etc.

          If this is the big denial, then are we in the bull trap phase?

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