Oil production forecast (graphic)

[*T*]

Graphic as in a graph, and also as in the sense a picture of a car crash is graphic.


World oil production (EIA Monthly) for crude oil + NGL. The median forecast is calculated from 14 models that are predicting a peak before 2020 (Bakhtiari, Smith, Staniford, Loglets, Shock model, GBM, ASPO-[70,58,45], Robelius Low/High, HSM). 95% of the predictions sees a production peak between 2008 and 2010 at 77.5 - 85.0 mbpd (The 95% forecast variability area in yellow is computed using a bootstrap technique).)

Stolen from theoildrum (click piccy for link).

Note the brow of the latest hill is 2012.

[Guest]

Re: Oil production forecast (graphic)

Quite seriously *T* - two years ago iTulip's remarks about these people were so openly derisive that I don't think we should avail ourselves of *any* material from there unless and until iTulip finally issue the grudging retraction of the slurs offered to them. You had to have been there and read that guff to get a gut sense of what is appropriate on this question.

[bart]

Re: Oil production forecast (graphic)

Yes Lukester, iTulip is eeevil and is never right and has never been right and always shoots people who disagree. :rolleyes:

[santafe2]

Re: Oil production forecast (graphic)

Quite seriously *T* - two years ago iTulip's remarks about these people were so openly derisive that I don't think we should avail ourselves of *any* material from there unless and until iTulip finally issue the grudging retraction of the slurs offered to them. You had to have been there and read that guff to get a gut sense of what is appropriate on this question.

I've learned a lot there over the last few months. Like most sites you have to pick through the opinion pieces but overall, very worthwhile. Here's the tonight's "campfire topic":

"How can you be certain that all yours and others 'outreach' efforts will only result in slowing down our consumption paradigm just enough to allow for 20 or 30 more years of pulling in resources from the periphery, thereby unintentionally causing an ultimately greater ecological disaster than the one you are efforting to avoid?

Yup, I've had that thought before.

[*T*]

Re: Oil production forecast (graphic)

Quite seriously *T* - two years ago iTulip's remarks about these people were so openly derisive that I don't think we should avail ourselves of *any* material from there unless and until iTulip finally issue the grudging retraction of the slurs offered to them. You had to have been there and read that guff to get a gut sense of what is appropriate on this question.

I remember that argument, I recall I was advocating EROEI as a model at the time. I don't see why it should stop me from posting anything though. Perhaps we should move on.

[coolhand]

Re: Oil production forecast (graphic)

I am fascinated by what appears to me to be the US government whispering to its citizens "We're past peak cheap oil", & no one in the general public is listening (the general population is too focused on American Idol, & the gov't is probably too scared to talk about the issue in stronger language):

1. The green Obama Administration is giving me a 30% tax credit, up to $1500, to install wood-burning stoves in my home. They are absolutely NOT green, but they are warm, cheap & renewable.

2. The 34 mpg by 2014 mandate.

3. The discussion of allowing/mandating US utilities to derive 20% of their burn from renewables (lumber) in coming years...

Not to say this is shocking, but in particular, i find # 1 above to be very fascinating...