Job Losses Way Below Estimates

[ThePythonicCow]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

This is good graph. That is not only at current peak but at all time peak. But is there is a possibility that this is a lagging indicator ? and things start to improve.
Actually looking at the graph it clearly shows it is a very lagging indicator, peaked well after the recession.

No - no - au contraire!

Recessions are the leading indicator in this graph. Once the recession is over, then unemployment duration will reliably peak a little bit later on. :eek::eek: [If unemployment duration is not even close to peaking yet, this is not good news. :eek::eek::eek:]

Please ignore EJ's gentle reminder:

MDU typically peaks a few months after a recession ends. We are not sure how useful MDU will be this time for indicating a sustained recovery, due to the structural transformation that the US economy is undergoing compared to marginal events previously.

Yes, yes, we've all heard those warnings that "this time is different, it's a paradigm shift" :rolleyes:.

[dummass]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

More rubbish:

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont.../un-claims.png

[Slimprofits]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

that's not rubbish, that is beautiful.

[peakishmael]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

The BLS has attempted, since 2001, to count unemployment numbers for small business by using the birth-death model. Simply stated, the birth-death model looks at the number of new entity filings (articles of incorporation/llc/llp/etc) and assumes that they create a certain number of jobs. So, if an employer goes bust and lays off 100 people, and 50 new LLCs are formed in the same month, there is a net change of zero to the unemployment numbers.

Of course, this model is completely full of shit to the extent that the vast majority of new business do not survive and that many filings occur without any jobs created. In the end it is just another way to cook the books.

Thanks, Munger, that helped me a lot.

Every story the MSM puts out on employment should be accompanied by the U3 graph, watered down as the data is:



Second derivative, heh. Pretty much says it all for me.

[c1ue]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

I think that everyone who owes a debt denominated in U.S. Dollars is short the Dollar above whatever amount of Dollars they actually hold as savings. (I could be wrong, so correct me if I am.)

The problem with such statement without facts is simple:

What if the majority - or even the vast majority - of said debts are owed by Americans?

In this case there is no such thing as a dollar short. Because 90%+ of Americans have no way to get other currencies, have no income in other currencies, and have no knowledge of nor interest in other currencies.

Thus a collapse in the dollar would just have to be eaten much like a s**t sandwich.

If the dollar does collapse and/or inflation really starts kicking in, even Americans are going to start wondering if it is better to perhaps hedge their rapidly eroding savings in other forms. Certainly gold is one, but foreign currencies can be another especially if some large corporations start pushing this as 'the next big thing'. I can absolutely see Donald Trump and Kiyosaki holding $300 seminars telling people how to become a millionaire by investing in "XXX" currency.

In this case you could just as easily have massive outflows into other currencies reinforcing the negative dollar dynamic and the positive ROW currency dynamic.

Sure, the tide is going down with every currency losing purchasing power. But I'd rather be losing less.

The point is that without data - any possibility can be argued. Exclusion of data in fact is a classic way to sway opinion.

As my personal goal and the overarching goal of iTulip is to get to the truth rather than push specific agendas, I find it highly irritating when loud and frequent posters constantly bombard the same concepts without information.

That said bombardment consists of 3rd party statements and support of posts echoing the desired view is no less a waste of time.

[Guinnesstime]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

New member, first post.

I reside in Midwest City, OK. Oklahoma possibly has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the U.S. That does not make it good news though. My wife got layed off from her job the end of October 08. I got let go the end of December 08. My wife did manage to land a new job about three weeks before her benefits expired, I meanwhile am still looking with only two weeks to go until my initial claim expires. Then I can claim extended benefits, YAY!

It is not for lack of tryng, as some may claim. When claiming benefits you are required to make at least two contacts per week. It is amazing how many jobs you can apply for, and never hear a thing back. My wife only got lucky in that a local nursing home needed a payroll person ASAP, and she was there at the right time.

Myself, I have worked in the aviation industry most of my life, 20 years. So far this has not been an advantage.
Also have a Class A commercial drivers license, and am unable to land a job there as well. I worked the last four years in the railroad industry, and that is now a dead industry. I have worked in warehouse, auto parts and cannot land a job there as well.

At 48 years old, I have never been unemployed for this long a stretch. I am worried about that, but at the same time my wife is making good money and we will not lose anything. We will just have to cut back on some niceties.

This is the middle of the country, and the unemployment rate is low. But for those of us in that rank, trying to find another job appears to be a daunting task.:rolleyes:

I do have an interview at Tinker Air Force Base on Thursday, and hopefully that 20 years of aviation experience will pay off.

Wish me luck.

I have been laid off since the beginning of March. I am also in the age group that has the highest amount of layoffs. I can't seem to find anything, and I can't stand sitting around with nothing to do. I decided to go back to school and get a degree in something different. Thinking about something science related like biochem.
Things are not fun out there thats for sure. Where I live the news spouts how things are turning around for the best. However the state DOL reports increased jobless claims all the time.

[Basil]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

Something sure gave the old US D0llar a shot in the arm in the last 48 hours, eh? Such lunges upwards (3% up in 3 days) are disturbing to the hyperinflation proponents. They sleep uneasily after such moves. The bizzarely erupting USD brings on gastric reflux, dyspepsia and bad dreams.

I do not get to read iTulip as much as I would like these days, but as I recall, the last time you were all in a tizz about the rise of the dollar it had just jumped back up to 86. Now it is at 80. No one here expects it to go down in a straight line.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

I do not get to read iTulip as much as I would like these days, but as I recall, the last time you were all in a tizz about the rise of the dollar it had just jumped back up to 86. Now it is at 80. No one here expects it to go down in a straight line.

No one that is, accept for Lukester in his caricatures of nearly everyone else.

[Moe_Gamble]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

The problem with such statement without facts is simple:

What if the majority - or even the vast majority - of said debts are owed by Americans?

In this case there is no such thing as a dollar short.

No, it's still a dollar short, in practical effect, no matter who owns it.

Also, I think knowledge about debt levels in the U.S. is well-enough known that no further data need be provided in such a short post.

I'm sure everybody here has seen the Credit Suisse chart of option adjustable rate mortgage resets coming, with reset rates having recently troughed but now climbing sharply again to a second peak in 2011. Awful lot of debt there to default on with unemployment rates looking so sick, and hours worked continuing to come down in the most recent report.

We are in a mess and I don't believe the outcome is certain, because it all comes down to poker now and the rentier class is still sitting behind the big stack. Did you see Atlanta Fed Reserve Lockhart's speech the other day about the need for an anticipatory rate increase later this year to fight inflation, lol? If Lockhart is sane, that speech was a bluff, but I'm not sure that he or anyone else in power is sane. Bernanke in particular seems very dense about timing. Did you see the increase in bets on a raise in the Fed Funds rate by the end of the year?

Those are very sickening signals. If they play out to any extent, we're heading into much worse trouble.

EJ's thesis depends on the Fed and the federal government having enough concern for the suffering and anger of average citizens to be willing to fight intense pressure from the rentier class. We haven't seen a meaningful fight against this class in the U.S. since the 1930s, and even then Roosevelt caved to them in 1937. I still think EJ's thesis is likely to prevail, partly because of the pressure of peak cheap oil, but we are still very early in the poker game and the outcome is uncertain.

[bart]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

edit: I wonder (out loud) if Bart or GRG55 have any comments on the birth/death model.

Munger got it.

The birth/death model is full of "brown shoots".

The birth/death model should be aborted/euthanized.

All it does is count new incorporations at a state level and then fiddle them into pretending there have been some jobs created but without any attempt at taking any job destructions into account... and then tries to adjust that data back to reality every January and June.

I have some ocean front property in Idaho for sale to anyone who believes there were 220 thousand net new jobs created in May. I estimate 562k job losses, as opposed to the official 345k number.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Job Losses Way Below Estimates

The BLS has attempted, since 2001, to count unemployment numbers for small business by using the birth-death model. Simply stated, the birth-death model looks at the number of new entity filings (articles of incorporation/llc/llp/etc) and assumes that they create a certain number of jobs. So, if an employer goes bust and lays off 100 people, and 50 new LLCs are formed in the same month, there is a net change of zero to the unemployment numbers.

Of course, this model is completely full of shit to the extent that the vast majority of new business do not survive and that many filings occur without any jobs created. In the end it is just another way to cook the books.

Thanks Munger and Bart.