When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

[stanley2008]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

For Gods sake EJ!
You said Gold might be revalued @ $15,000................I opened An Atlas to find a nice Island......"Republic De La Mega" .....er that's what it will be re-named..........nice place.....low tax rates......nice females.....you get the picture.

But, like nothing has happened!

Just when is i going to the promised land?

Mike

I didn't read this 15K forecast from EJ. Where/when did he make it?

[Tybee Island]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

Ye who have little faith, pull up a chair.

That same Smith Barney broker I have been telling you about that advises my father-in-law did a very curious thing yesterday.

My father-in-law had a muni-bond called and the proceeds were deposited into his account. The nimble, always angling for a commission but wrong for the last two years, broker calls him to say, "what would you like to do with the money?"

Father-in law: "What are you recommending?"

Broker replies: "Gold!"

"Hmmmmmmm," Father-in-law, thinks and then stays to broker, "when my son-in-law (yours truly Tybee) told me to buy gold 4 years ago, you told me it was a horrible investment, doesn't pay dividends and is expensive to store, now you are recommending I buy gold?"

Broker: "Yep, I have changed my mind."

Father-in-law: "But I could have bought it for something like in the three hundreds, low fours then"

Broker: "I know, better late than never."

Father-in-law: "What are you selling"

Broker: "Gold Eagles or Kilo bars, 1.5% above spot sent to you via UPS"...............very interesting, indeed.

[flintlock]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

Ye who have little faith, pull up a chair.

That same Smith Barney broker I have been telling you about that advises my father-in-law did a very curious thing yesterday.

My father-in-law had a muni-bond called and the proceeds were deposited into his account. The nimble, always angling for a commission but wrong for the last two years, broker calls him to say, "what would you like to do with the money?"

Father-in law: "What are you recommending?"

Broker replies: "Gold!"

"Hmmmmmmm," Father-in-law, thinks and then stays to broker, "when my son-in-law (yours truly Tybee) told me to buy gold 4 years ago, you told me it was a horrible investment, doesn't pay dividends and is expensive to store, now you are recommending I buy gold?"

Broker: "Yep, I have changed my mind."

Father-in-law: "But I could have bought it for something like in the three hundreds, low fours then"

Broker: "I know, better late than never."

Father-in-law: "What are you selling"

Broker: "Gold Eagles or Kilo bars, 1.5% above spot sent to you via UPS"...............very interesting, indeed.

Yes, very interesting. My 78 year old uncle is a senior stock broker and I know they tend to push products that corporate wants them to push. I doubt he'd be pushing gold unless there was an incentive to. (sorry, I don't trust brokers, even my uncle).

[dummass]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

The brokers are in the business of selling investments. The question they must be asking themselves: what will they buy?

Investors may have short memories, but they have been burned recently on stocks and bonds. "I know: lets sell them gold!"

1.5% premium doesn't seem excessive, but it's higher than the .5% on bonds.

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

The brokers are in the business of selling investments.

I learned at a very young age, that whatever a broker is selling; run away from it as fast as you can.

[metalman]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

I didn't read this 15K forecast from EJ. Where/when did he make it?

ej's target = $2500 forever. mega pulled 15k out of his butt.

[rjwjr]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

I learned at a very young age, that whatever a broker is selling; run away from it as fast as you can.

I was thinking the same thing my fellow Floridian. This is the scariest gold bear signal I have seen yet. However, I've decided to process it as the likely start of the "POOM" in gold (the investment going mainstream), rather than as a gold price bear indicator (broker pushing it). It's not like all brokers are pushing it yet.

EJ did indicate that gold is likely to one day become a bubble asset itself, but I remember his time frame being in 10-15 years. I'm hoping to let it run to $1,700 or so then re-evaluate. By then, iTulip will likely have us taking some money off the table or conducting a re-allocation anyway.

[rabot10]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

ej's target = $2500 forever. mega pulled 15k out of his butt.

I for one hope that Megas butt wins ;-)

[ASH]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

I for one hope that Megas butt wins ;-)

To be clear, there is a difference between EJ's official price target ($2500) versus his allowance for overshoot. To be useful, the price target has to represent a high degree of confidence -- it is what "should" be reached. On the other hand, it's not sensible to believe that the peak gold price can be called with any accuracy, so statements about what "might" happen are entirely reasonable.

From the Road to Ruin thread:

The rise of gold from $260 to $700 in six years followed by an increase from $700 to $1000 in two years may be quickly followed by a rise from $1,000 to $5,000 in just a few months.

In other words, our forecast of gold at $2,500 and the DOW at 5,000 may be as prosaic as our other seemingly dire forecasts because our perception of the rate of change and extent of the financial system, economic, and political crisis has been too optimistic.

[Raz]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

The American Institute for Economic Research in Great Barrington, MA published a transcript/booklet covering their E.C. Harwood Memorial Conference of May 13-14, 2004, most of which dealt with the prospects for some form of a resumption of the Gold Standard. Like EJ they see the present fiat system as unsustainable.

According to them, a study by two economists - Robert Flood and Peter Garber - analyzed different price levels that could yield "a viable gold standard" as of 1983. They concluded that the value of the U.S. gold stock would have to equal the amount of outstanding high-powered fiat money - the fiat monetary base - that would be convertible and could be converted into gold bullion under such a standard. In the early 1980s the U.S. gold stock was about 264 million ounces, and the stock of high-powered fiat money was $163.30 Billion, yielding a gold price of $619.00/oz in order to equalize the two in value. (The price of gold reached a peak of approximately $850.00 on the Comex in January of 1980.)

AIER repeated the Flood-Garber calculation using the data from the Federal Reserve Bulletin of October 2003. Using their figure of 261.60 million ounces of gold and the stock of high-powered money of $710.00 Billion yielded a gold price of $2,714.00/oz. as of October 1, 2003.

http://www.aier.org/

[BadJuju]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

To the moon, Aulice!

[jtabeb]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

The American Institute for Economic Research in Great Barrington, MA published a transcript/booklet covering their E.C. Harwood Memorial Conference of May 13-14, 2004, most of which dealt with the prospects for some form of a resumption of the Gold Standard. Like EJ they see the present fiat system as unsustainable.

According to them, a study by two economists - Robert Flood and Peter Garber - analyzed different price levels that could yield "a viable gold standard" as of 1983. They concluded that the value of the U.S. gold stock would have to equal the amount of outstanding high-powered fiat money - the fiat monetary base - that would be convertible and could be converted into gold bullion under such a standard. In the early 1980s the U.S. gold stock was about 264 million ounces, and the stock of high-powered fiat money was $163.30 Billion, yielding a gold price of $619.00/oz in order to equalize the two in value. (The price of gold reached a peak of approximately $850.00 on the Comex in January of 1980.)

AIER repeated the Flood-Garber calculation using the data from the Federal Reserve Bulletin of October 2003. Using their figure of 261.60 million ounces of gold and the stock of high-powered money of $710.00 Billion yielded a gold price of $2,714.00/oz. as of October 1, 2003.

http://www.aier.org/

So what would that price be as of 2009?:eek:

P.S. Answer is $6880 per Oz/Au! Cool, new gold target price!!

Wonder what silver would be is gold went up 6.8x? Does the Gold siver ratio stay the same or does it decrease (or increase).

[bradzepfan]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

Must this be a "contrarian indicator"? Perhaps these guys will sell whatever they can to make themselves money, whether it be stocks, gold or used cars. Doesn't necessarily make gold a bad buy?

[stockman]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

If you are placing bets on the equity side worth noting that the miners are more popular than the drillers here...

OSX XAU.jpg

This popularity is also reflected in the sector assets within Rydex funds.


FYI- I am long both (along with other commodty related stocks), but favor the energy names over miners at this point. I think if gold is headed to 15k?! oil, corn, silver, copper, (farm land!) should do pretty well also.

[metalman]

Re: When the HELL is Gold going to go though the $1000 barrier?

i didn't..............but Schiff promised me that without fail i be @ $2000 by now.
Mike

but... but... schiff's an ideologue.