Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

[vinoveri]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aT6iVvS6oQlk
....
Where I’m far from the madding crowd is on the bond vigilantes’ ability to do anything about it. The notion that the bond market can tighten for the Fed through long-term interest rates is just plain wrong.
....

[rabot10]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aT6iVvS6oQlk
....
Where I’m far from the madding crowd is on the bond vigilantes’ ability to do anything about it. The notion that the bond market can tighten for the Fed through long-term interest rates is just plain wrong.
....

Hey vin I want to understand the Bond market much better but i don't understand your post would U mind putting it in terms that an 8 year old would understand thanks bro

rick

[metalman]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

Hey vin I want to understand the Bond market much better but i don't understand your post would U mind putting it in terms that an 8 year old would understand thanks bro

rick

caroline says that kids buying bonds for fixed income allocation to pension funds and whatnot ain't paid to second guess the gov't. if the gov't says 'zero inflation 4 evah' then that's the rate the kids pay. end of story. the rest is bullshit.

[vinoveri]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

caroline says that kids buying bonds for fixed income allocation to pension funds and whatnot ain't paid to second guess the gov't. if the gov't says 'zero inflation 4 evah' then that's the rate the kids pay. end of story. the rest is bullshit.

Rick, MM put it more clearly and with more color than I ever could.

[charliebrown]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

This is one of the resons I've never rushed into tips.
It's the gvt that that decides what the inflation rate is for tips.

It's probably better to own a short term treasury, than a long term tip,
If you're worried about inflation.

I think EJ recommends t-bills and gold. not tips and gold.

[metalman]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

I think EJ recommends t-bills and gold. not tips and gold.

tbils... 13wks ala treas direct. how we doing?



no inflation yet!

meanwhile, back at the ranch...

[Charles Mackay]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aT6iVvS6oQlk
....
Where I’m far from the madding crowd is on the bond vigilantes’ ability to do anything about it. The notion that the bond market can tighten for the Fed through long-term interest rates is just plain wrong.
....

The "Dollar Vigilantes" now rule... bonds are sending poor free market signals because of QE

[Guest]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

Charles - you are extrapolating an observable USD trend from 3 weeks of dollar action. Can you say: "I'm quite eager to prove out my thesis"? This is the flavor du jour here at iTulip - all of the grass is bending willingly in the direction of the prevailing wind. The "three week hurricane" of forex action in the dollar is like a bolus of cocaine, coursing through the veins of the dollar bears. They are "all pumped up, and ready to rumble". :rolleyes:

Don't take my comments the wrong way guy. You know I greatly respect all your comments here. One of iTulips most elegantly minimal investors.

The "Dollar Vigilantes" now rule... bonds are sending poor free market signals because of QE

[Charles Mackay]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

Charles - you are extrapolating an observable USD trend from 3 weeks of dollar action. Can you say: "I'm quite eager to prove out my thesis"? This is the flavor du jour here at iTulip - all of the grass is bending willingly in the direction of the prevailing wind. The "three week hurricane" of forex action in the dollar is like a bolus of cocaine, coursing through the veins of the dollar bears. They are "all pumped up, and ready to rumble". :rolleyes:

Don't take my comments the wrong way guy. You know I greatly respect all your comments here. One of iTulips most elegantly minimal investors.

Well, if everyone is too bearish then we'll probably get a bounce but I'm looking at a 20 year bear market that has shown no signs of bottoming. Note my count Lukester ....(c) of II is a 5 wave move confusing many elliott students that a new bull market has begun... Including Bob Prechter.

[Guest]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

Charles - one thing is for sure - how this plays out is going to be very "interesting"! We are at a fascinating juncture.

[metalman]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

Charles - one thing is for sure - how this plays out is going to be very "interesting"! We are at a fascinating juncture.

true nuff... can tell you one thing ain't gonna happen...

DEFLATION!


mish!


karl!


rick ackerman!

bing!

[xela]

Re: Bond Vigilantes Irrelevant?

Nice one; it could also be a huge running triangle in this bear market, suggesting your wave (c) (3 months ago, Lukester) was not the end of wave II, but giving us an interim bottom ~72-75 for (d) and a leg up to ~85-88 for (e). Only then, the violent third wave down to new all time lows.
What not supports this scenario is that gold would then show relative weakness for some months from here. I doubt that very much.