Markets aren't up as much you might think

[Sharky]

I thought it might be interesting to have a look at stocks, gold and oil as priced in NZD, and to compare the recent swings in percentage terms to their equivalents in USD.

First, the S&P 500 priced in NZD, which is up only 10% from the March low, vs. 38% when priced in USD. Clearly, most of the recent price action has been due to currency fluctuations, as opposed to some inherent strength. Notice that the big run-up in USD terms in March was basically flat in NZD, and the supposedly flat period in May in USD terms has been down significantly in NZD.

spxnzd.png
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Next, gold priced in NZD, which is down 21% from its Feb high, vs. down 3% priced in USD. Notice the big run-up in May in USD terms has been flat in NZD.

goldnzd.png
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And finally, oil priced in NZD, which is up 42% from its Feb low, vs. 78% up in USD. Clearly this is the result of more than just a weakening USD.

wticnzd.png

[metalman]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

good one, sharky... brings the 'rally' down to earth.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

I thought it might be interesting to have a look at stocks, gold and oil as priced in NZD, and to compare the recent swings in percentage terms to their equivalents in USD.

Sweet graphs. Why the NZD though?

[karim0028]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

Sweet graphs. Why the NZD though?

i think its simply bc he is in NZD But, the point is understood that the dollar tanked against all currencies as an easily obtainable example it went from 1.25/Euro to 1.41/Euro, essentially the dollar got weaker all around... I would be interested to see it against the euro as well; but great charts none the less, thanks Sharky!

[Starving Steve]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

If the collapse of the U.S. dollar now beckons-in the hyper-inflation or severe inflation, whatever, let's not forget the damage done to Zimbabwe by Robert Mugabwe and his economic policies coming right out of the London School of Economics. This could be the future down in the USA, or something like it.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...we-secret-film

In recent weeks, Zimbabwe has abandoned its worthless currency, and it now uses U.S. dollars and South African rand. Prices are actually deflating in Zimbabwe right now and bringing some relief to the people.

The lesson is quite clear: once the confidence in the currency goes, inflation enters into the markets through commodity price shocks. This then feeds upon itself.

With the Putz from Princeton now heading the Fed, the days may be numbered for the U.S. dollar as a world reserve currency.

And once the U.S. dollar gives-way, all of the world's other currencies become suspect. This will be quite a party.

The problem is the economic curriculum being offered in the world's major universities to-day. It is totally pro-inflation. But we will discuss this later after the party--- when the damage from the inflation is apparent to all.

And one more point: Anyone who thinks inflation is less to be feared than deflation, anyone who was brainwashed by current economic thinking coming out of the world's universities, and anyone who thinks inflation is a sign of prosperity needs to watch this video in the link above.... Bernanke, Geithner, Paul Krugman, all of the Ph.Ds at Princeton and Stanford, all of the geniuses at the London School of Economics, please click the link above. The people ate rats to survive in Zimbabwe.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

i think its simply bc he is in NZD But, the point is understood that the dollar tanked against all currencies as an easily obtainable example it went from 1.25/Euro to 1.41/Euro, essentially the dollar got weaker all around... I would be interested to see it against the euro as well; but great charts none the less, thanks Sharky!

I figured as much based on his location, but thought that there may be other more interesting reasons, e.g. low vol between NZD and other currencies.

[Sharky]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

Another point I'm trying to make here is that if you look at the markets priced in other currencies -- as an international investor might -- they tell a completely different story than when priced in USD. Stocks, in particular, look very weak.

Sweet graphs. Why the NZD though?

Because I live in NZ and follow the NZD. The NZD has appreciated 30% against the USD since early March. The story is similar for most commodity-based currencies. The Australian dollar, for example, is up 27% against the USD. The South African Rand is up 34%. The Canadian dollar is up 19%. The Euro is only up about 13%, and the Yen only about 5%.

[WildspitzE]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

Another point I'm trying to make here is that if you look at the markets priced in other currencies -- as an international investor might -- they tell a completely different story than when priced in USD. Stocks, in particular, look very weak.

This was clear as can be.

Because I live in NZ and follow the NZD. The NZD has appreciated 30% against the USD since early March. The story is similar for most commodity-based currencies. The Australian dollar, for example, is up 27% against the USD. The South African Rand is up 34%. The Canadian dollar is up 19%. The Euro is only up about 13%, and the Yen only about 5%.

Thanks for the clarification. I follow the OZ$, Rand, and Euro. Was just curious re: NZD.

[Starving Steve]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

In a competitive de-valuation, whatever gains any currency has will soon be erased by its central bank. Here in Canada, any gain in the beaver buck will soon be de-valued away by the Carney's Bank of Canada.... Just watch and see.

So read whatever message that you want into the movements in the currency markets, but all currencies are headed lower against gold. And all world paper currencies will ultimately become worth less and less--- ultimately becoming worthless in buying power.

Central banks are specialists in inflation and currency de-valuation. And central bankers are the biggest liars on Earth.

One more point: any advantage that you get selling real estate or selling gold, selling commodities is only a fleeting advantage. Real items hold their value over the long haul, and paper items are losers.

What is the value of one hundred trillion dollars in Zimbabwe money? Answer: zero. Any gains taken in Z dollars by playing markets were illusions.

The Fed has printed-up trillions in worthless U.S. dollars. The Bank of England has printed-up trillions in worthless pounds. The Bank of Canada is doing the same thing with beaver bucks. So are all of the other central banks doing the same thing with their currencies...... Get the message?

The people of Zimbabwe ate rats to survive.

We just went thru the steepest and most severe crash ever seen on markets worldwide--- worse than 1929. The idiots running the central banks haven't a clue what they are doing.... Do you want to see what they do next with their currencies, and do you think you can beat them at their game of competitive de-valuation?

[dummass]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

While watching this video I kept asking myself why the people werenīt farming? That would help solve the food problem in a situation of survival...maybe those who canīt pan for gold could farm. I didnīt know bread (sliced , packaged refined bread) was such a hot commodity. The sweet potato has been the emergency food crop throughout the history of Africa: they grow in poor soil, drought conditons where nothing else will grow. Why arenīt they farming??? This video strikes me as disingenuine.

[cjppjc]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

While watching this video I kept asking myself why the people werenīt farming? That would help solve the food problem in a situation of survival...maybe those who canīt pan for gold could farm. I didnīt know bread (sliced , packaged refined bread) was such a hot commodity. The sweet potato has been the emergency food crop throughout the history of Africa: they grow in poor soil, drought conditons where nothing else will grow. Why arenīt they farming??? This video strikes me as disingenuine.

Private property rights are a bit sketchy. Always hard to get good use of any kind of property without good private property laws.

[dummass]

Re: Markets aren't up as much you might think

From my personal observations of how things work in latin america I can say that people, especially in more rural villages, like what appeared in the video (where most people are extended family), tend to work collectively for the good of the group. There are squabbles over property but not to such a degree that people starve. The poorer subsistence farmer tends to be very pragmatic when it comes to survival. Even those who are landless can find someone who agrees to sharecrop.