Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

[goadam1]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

Next thing you know, a Times reporter will leak misleading information to lead us to War. Again.

[Raz]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

the oligarchs own economists on 'both sides' of the non-argument... left & right.

the goal is to keep the issue framed as socialism vs capitalism and not the people and their half dead republic vs the oligarchs.

You are correct.

Arthur Laffer is an example of an economist owned by the FIRE Right.
But he works a lot cheaper than Krugman.
Just give him a napkin, a pencil, and a couple of biscuits.
Anything more and you risk confusing him.

[flintlock]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

For those who don't know who Laffer is, here is a classic.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IU6PamCQ6zw

In my opinion, he is the classic political hack economist.

[flintlock]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

Its not always just pure corruption. A lot of these people are starstruck. They get to meet the president, give him advice. All this praise and attention comes with a price. Don't rock the boat. I have no idea if this applies to Krugman but I've seen it before.

As an example. George W Bush used to invite talk radio personalities to come to the White House and spend the night. Atlanta talk radio host Neal Boortz used to be on Ws case all the time. After a weekend at the White House, he was so starstruck, he turned into a Bush apologist overnight. It was so transparent it was embarrassing.

[metalman]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

Its not always just pure corruption. A lot of these people are starstruck. They get to meet the president, give him advice. All this praise and attention comes with a price. Don't rock the boat. I have no idea if this applies to Krugman but I've seen it before.

As an example. George W Bush used to invite talk radio personalities to come to the White House and spend the night. Atlanta talk radio host Neal Boortz used to be on Ws case all the time. After a weekend at the White House, he was so starstruck, he turned into a Bush apologist overnight. It was so transparent it was embarrassing.

normally i'd agree, but krugman's a big boy, a world stage economist and no spring chicken... not some local radio talk host.

roubini's got summers on his company's boa.

as janet says, there's something amiss with taleb... black swan my ass.

any economists left not on their knees to the oligarchs?

[flintlock]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

Like I said, I have no idea if it applies to Krugman. My gut tells me not. My point is its not always just as simple as money or power. Sometimes its as simple as feeling important that makes people lie.

[cjppjc]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

You are correct.

Arthur Laffer is an example of an economist owned by the FIRE Right.
But he works a lot cheaper than Krugman.
Just give him a napkin, a pencil, and a couple of biscuits.
Anything more and you risk confusing him.

You got Laffer right. He is on the radio as with an endorsesment. Who cares. You knows him.

[Guest]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

Yeah well, one thing that could rescue Krugman is any further spreading of the recent global credit meltdown. Depending on how that played out, it could make Krugman's comments provisionally even "look" wise ... for a little while anyway. ... which would leave all of these indictments without such a ready target. The market can play this out several very different ways.

I don't get - why anyone reads this guy - he is a talking his book and relying on his information can be hazardous to your financial future.

Oil hitting $66.00 this morning. Seems inflationary to me. I think during that dinner with the President, Krugman drank the Kool-aid.

What Krugman basically is saying is that the economic equivalent of the perpetual motion machine can really exist. That we can spend more than we take in forever with no lasting consequences.

already happened...[ being didactic again - adds iTulip quotes ]

Agreed. Me thinks it's Krugman who is being political...

And silver up to 15.5. :eek:

And gold near $980.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

Lukester, I think you missed the point of this column entirely. It wasn't written as a piece of investment advice. At some point you should take a look at the comment section of his blog. Krugman has a large loyal base of liberal J6P readers.

The last paragraphs seal the deal in more than one way:

But it’s hard to escape the sense that the current inflation fear-mongering is partly political, coming largely from economists who had no problem with deficits caused by tax cuts but suddenly became fiscal scolds when the government started spending money to rescue the economy. And their goal seems to be to bully the Obama administration into abandoning those rescue efforts.

Needless to say, the president should not let himself be bullied. The economy is still in deep trouble and needs continuing help.

Yes, we have a long-run budget problem, and we need to start laying the groundwork for a long-run solution. But when it comes to inflation, the only thing we have to fear is inflation fear itself.

Krugman tells his readers that the president's political enemies are the people behind the inflation scare, therefore it can be disregarded.

First things first. It’s important to realize that there’s no hint of inflationary pressures in the economy right now...Deflation, not inflation, is the clear and present danger.

Look I'm not a brilliant Nobel prize winner, but do drive every day and the cost for a gallon of gas has risen from $1.95 to $2.45 (couldn't find anything lower than that in multiple towns yesterday) in just about two months.

[Jay]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

You got Laffer right. He is on the radio as with an endorsesment. Who cares. You knows him.

I love how Schiff calls Laffer's bluff on how rosy the economy is and says, "I'll bet you a lot more than a penny."
Nice find.

[Guest]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

As far as Krugman goes, I'm certainly no apologist for the guy. I meant that all of these observations about what is "clearly discrediting" his comments - rely on present signals which can resolve in several different ways in the next year, making the comments a bit less self evident. Granted, none of which makes his wildly nonchalant comments on inflation more reputable.

We are referring to an inflationary explosion for instance, a little while before it's actually fully hatched. If it's not hatched yet, strictly speaking we can't point to it as inevitable. It's highly likely, but we are not looking at it in the rear view mirror yet.

And about your gas price comment, I've got a feeling that guy Bensimon is gonna turn out right.

Get this Babbittd, he forecast, maybe 12-18 months ago that oil would crash into the 50's by the end of 2008, and then soar straight past $100 all over again by the end of 2009. That was a pretty explicit call.

... the cost for a gallon of gas has risen from $1.95 to $2.45 (couldn't find anything lower than that in multiple towns yesterday) in just about two months.

That is shaping up to be a pretty damn good forecast, as it looks like we are going to get $100+ oil by year end - all over again. He's also forecasting $50 silver by 2011 as an *early* price trajectory target! :eek:

[flintlock]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

As far as Krugman goes, I'm certainly no apologist for the guy. I meant that all of these observations about what is "clearly discrediting" his comments - rely on present signals which can resolve in several different ways in the next year, making the comments a bit less self evident. Granted, none of which makes his wildly nonchalant comments on inflation more reputable.

We are referring to an inflationary explosion for instance, a little while before it's actually fully hatched. If it's not hatched yet, strictly speaking we can't point to it as inevitable. It's highly likely, but we are not looking at it in the rear view mirror yet.

And about your gas price comment, I've got a feeling that guy Bensimon is gonna turn out right.

Get this Babbittd, he forecast, maybe 12-18 months ago that oil would crash into the 50's by the end of 2008, and then soar straight past $100 all over again by the end of 2009. That was a pretty explicit call.



That is shaping up to be a pretty damn good forecast, as it looks like we are going to get $100+ oil by year end - all over again. He's also forecasting $50 silver by 2011 as an *early* price trajectory target! :eek:

I really hope you are right about oil prices!

On the other hand, what is that going to do to the economy? Yikes. There's always a catch.

[flintlock]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

But when it comes to inflation, the only thing we have to fear is inflation fear itself.

Yeah buddy, tell that to the Weimar Republic. :rolleyes:

[Guest]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

Booming oil prices should reignite a large portion of the industrialising countries GDP growth. In it's initial stages an oil price boom speeds up GDP growth, doesn't slow it down. It does eventually put a damper on consumer's spending in the mature economies but it lights a fire under the commodities, which starts a chain of wealth effects among all commodity producers eventually.

Since the bulk of the budget spent for oil by the mature economies is totally non-discretionary, an oil boom starts a giant siphoning action of wealth from OECD nations towards the emerging nations. Emerging nations have much faster potential growth, so actually the gearing to speed up global GDP when oil prices start to rise sharply is quite powerful gearing.

Wrap it all up and you get the beginnings of another commodity boom as world growth resumes briskly. This is my notion of how it works anyway (derived from Andrew McKillop's articles). We may get some more KA, but not for long if the price of oil keeps on rising!

[goadam1]

Re: Paul Krugman "Inflation Scare"

the aspens are turning now out west. Their roots are knotted and grow together