Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

[jtabeb]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

we can all go back to the Alice in Wonderland world of the soaring US dollar where-everything-else-was-crapping-out.

And what a ride it's going to be!;)

[Guest]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

I am your conscience and gutter-wisdom guiding light, Jtabeb. And I'm here to tell you this: TAKE the 300K per year Saudi flight instructor's job. TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!!. This is today's lesson in wisdom. " T A K E ... T H E ... M O N E Y ... A N D ... R U N !!! ".

You capisce??

YES, black line go up. Again sorry for the confusion in the first place on my part, and again thanks to Luke for correcting me.

[jtabeb]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

I am your conscience and gutter-wisdom guiding light, Jtabeb. And I'm here to tell you this: TAKE the 300K per year Saudi flight instructor's job. TAKE THE MONEY AND RUN!!. This is today's lesson in wisdom. " T A K E ... T H E ... M O N E Y ... A N D ... R U N !!! ".

You capisce??

Yeah, been feeling like a Hitler Jew (economic sense) for the last month or so.

Anybody in Auckland NZ can give me a PIREP about conditions and stability there.

I'm thinking Aus, NZ, for relocation prior to expatriation. Anyone with boots on the ground care to offer an opinion as to how stable these places will be during "bad times" world wide?

Thanks

[icm63]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Auckland Situation...

I am in Auckland, New Zealand.

The funny thing here is that with the massive private debt held by the citizens (180% of GDP), we havent cracked yet, and if you have such large debts to the banks ( via residential property) that means that the banks have not yet allowed it to crack. There is no savings in New Zealand society, actually we have a negative 16% saving rate...so a couple of weeks income lost and the family is bankrupt !

Sure the risky stuff has died, the building of holiday resorts and new hotels in Queenstown, as they where financed by the Finance Companies and RBS (a Scottish bank that loved too much risk). So the regular commercial banks have missed that huge risky whale ! This has brought NZ some time. However all NZ banks are owned by Aussie, and sometimes they treat us like there ugly cousin, so I cant see how the world mess can miss us.

The May 2009 budget got a thumbs up from SP and Moodies so no down grade (YET), see the $NZD up big. We are taxed more than our Aussie friends, maybe thats why rating agencies like us. There will be no tax cuts for YEARS...If GDP keeps falling, and govt spending stays flat, then we will get a downgrade in years to come.

Forecast: Unemployment 10% next year, and maybe that will send a serious message to banks...and things might crack then. Hope not!

If California is leading the world, then it will hit us to some degree in 12 months time.

Aussie is already falling over, NZ will follow I think, but this time not as hard, as many years ago Roger Douglas of the Labour party sorted out our govt debt ridden books and the world will not let us PRINT MONEY, therefore our Govt Debt is low (for now)...we are too small not to get a big whallop from whats going on over seas.

If you come here, great, but RENT your house. And live oustide the country for 6 months or more so your tax residence is not NZ...ha

[jtabeb]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Auckland Situation...

I am in Auckland, New Zealand.

The funny thing here is that with the massive private debt held by the citizens (180% of GDP), we havent cracked yet, and if you have such large debts to the banks ( via residential property) that means that the banks have not yet allowed it to crack. There is no savings in New Zealand society, actually we have a negative 16% saving rate...so a couple of weeks income lost and the family is bankrupt !

Sure the risky stuff has died, the building of holiday resorts and new hotels in Queenstown, as they where financed by the Finance Companies and RBS (a Scottish bank that loved too much risk). So the regular commercial banks have missed that huge risky whale ! This has brought NZ some time. However all NZ banks are owned by Aussie, and sometimes they treat us like there ugly cousin, so I cant see how the world mess can miss us.

The May 2009 budget got a thumbs up from SP and Moodies so no down grade (YET), see the $NZD up big. We are taxed more than our Aussie friends, maybe thats why rating agencies like us. There will be no tax cuts for YEARS...If GDP keeps falling, and govt spending stays flat, then we will get a downgrade in years to come.

Forecast: Unemployment 10% next year, and maybe that will send a serious message to banks...and things might crack then. Hope not!

If California is leading the world, then it will hit us to some degree in 12 months time.

Aussie is already falling over, NZ will follow I think, but this time not as hard, as many years ago Roger Douglas of the Labour party sorted out our govt debt ridden books and the world will not let us PRINT MONEY, therefore our Govt Debt is low (for now)...we are too small not to get a big whallop from whats going on over seas.

If you come here, great, but RENT your house. And live oustide the country for 6 months or more so your tax residence is not NZ...ha

Can you own physical gold and silver there? What's the tax rate on them?

THX!

[Sharky]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Can you own physical gold and silver there? What's the tax rate on them?

THX!

Yes, you can. NZ has no capital gains taxes (on anything, not just metals), provided you're not in the "business of investing." They do charge GST of 12.5% on metals that are less than 0.999 purity -- so GAEs, Krugs, etc, aren't too popular as a result.

Things are better in NZ out of the big cities. Property prices in Nelson, where I live (on the north coast of the south island) are down only about 8% from the peak. Unemployment is still very low.

I'm more optimistic than icm63 about future prospects. I suspect that if/when commodities recover, NZ could do very well. Due to their unique central bank structure, I also believe they will weather inflation better than most.

[icm63]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

..."I also believe they will weather inflation better than most."..

how do sharky, dont wanna disagree with you but we calculate inflation with less dummying down of the CPI than USA, if cude goes back to $150, we will have high inflation and high interest rates ( unless other elements of the CPI calculation are negative by heaps)...

YES live in South Island, cheaper...YES make a call to Sharky for a lunch date and get the inside knowledge of Nelson, great place !

Sharky do you recognise my avatar photo ??? ha ha!

[Jay]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

I just wanted to add that the South Island is one of the most beautiful places on the Earth. I might live there just to have access to Milford and Doubtful Sound.

[Sharky]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

how do sharky, dont wanna disagree with you but we calculate inflation with less dummying down of the CPI than USA, if cude goes back to $150, we will have high inflation and high interest rates ( unless other elements of the CPI calculation are negative by heaps)...

I agree with you. However, most other countries are likely to have high inflation and low interest rates -- which will make things worse for them in the long run by destroying their currencies. The RBNZ is chartered to mainly watch inflation, not unemployment. It will be interesting to see what happens if/when unemployment gets as bad as in the US. Unlike the States, NZ has already been through a serious currency crisis -- hopefully the lesson won't be soon forgotten.

[jtabeb]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Yes, you can. NZ has no capital gains taxes (on anything, not just metals), provided you're not in the "business of investing." They do charge GST of 12.5% on metals that are less than 0.999 purity -- so GAEs, Krugs, etc, aren't too popular as a result.

Things are better in NZ out of the big cities. Property prices in Nelson, where I live (on the north coast of the south island) are down only about 8% from the peak. Unemployment is still very low.

I'm more optimistic than icm63 about future prospects. I suspect that if/when commodities recover, NZ could do very well. Due to their unique central bank structure, I also believe they will weather inflation better than most.

I'm looking for a farm type place, good schools, Oh here's one, what are the Gun Ownership rules like in NZ, (as I have a "few" guns)?

Any good South Island NZ realty websites?

Also (sorry have to ask)

NTSC or PAL? 220V or 110V? I have to make sure my stereo will work!

Thanks!!

[Sharky]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

I'm looking for a farm type place, good schools, Oh here's one, what are the Gun Ownership rules like in NZ, (as I have a "few" guns)?

Gun ownership is legal. Plenty of hunters in NZ. They do require a license, which involves a basic safety test. Pistols take more work; you need to belong to an authorized "pistol club," and go in regularly to practice. All guns are required by law to be stored under lock and key.

Any good South Island NZ realty websites?

The best one is probably http://www.realestate.co.nz/

NTSC or PAL? 220V or 110V? I have to make sure my stereo will work!

PAL. 240V. I brought a bunch of transformers with me to run my old 110V gear, including a stereo. They work great. They have Sky TV for satellite, including HD.

A few other tidbits that I've mentioned in other threads:

-- The legal system is based on Common Law, but it much more relaxed than in the US about most things. For example, typical contract to buy a house is about 4 pages long. People are not rewarded by the courts for being stupid or for having bad luck (no multi-million dollar settlements for spilling hot coffee on yourself; you'd more likely be laughed out of court).
-- Property taxes are low. I pay about 0.15% of the value of my house and land per year, vs. about 10 times that in California.
-- Prostitution and gambling are legal here. The drinking age is 18. Driving age is 15.
-- No capital gains tax applies to housing and stocks, too, although they do tax all overseas income like the US does.
-- No estate / death taxes
-- Insurance costs are very low. Health care is a combined socialized / private system. Cost to see a GP for a routine visit is about NZ$35 (US$22). Prescriptions are all subsidized -- usually pay a max of NZ$12 (US$8) for a typical course of meds. Home and car insurance is also relatively cheap.

[BadJuju]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Wow, I might have to join Sharky and jtabeb! :cool:

[jtabeb]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Gun ownership is legal. Plenty of hunters in NZ. They do require a license, which involves a basic safety test. Pistols take more work; you need to belong to an authorized "pistol club," and go in regularly to practice. All guns are required by law to be stored under lock and key.



The best one is probably http://www.realestate.co.nz/



PAL. 240V. I brought a bunch of transformers with me to run my old 110V gear, including a stereo. They work great. They have Sky TV for satellite, including HD.

A few other tidbits that I've mentioned in other threads:

-- The legal system is based on Common Law, but it much more relaxed than in the US about most things. For example, typical contract to buy a house is about 4 pages long. People are not rewarded by the courts for being stupid or for having bad luck (no multi-million dollar settlements for spilling hot coffee on yourself; you'd more likely be laughed out of court).
-- Property taxes are low. I pay about 0.15% of the value of my house and land per year, vs. about 10 times that in California.
-- Prostitution and gambling are legal here. The drinking age is 18. Driving age is 15.
-- No capital gains tax applies to housing and stocks, too, although they do tax all overseas income like the US does.
-- No estate / death taxes
-- Insurance costs are very low. Health care is a combined socialized / private system. Cost to see a GP for a routine visit is about NZ$35 (US$22). Prescriptions are all subsidized -- usually pay a max of NZ$12 (US$8) for a typical course of meds. Home and car insurance is also relatively cheap.

I'm staying in the thread vs PMing you because I think others might have interest in this as well.

Any idea how a foreign national obtains citizenship?

[BadJuju]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

I'm staying in the thread vs PMing you because I think others might have interest in this as well.

I certainly am interested! Although it would be a difficult proposition for me given my limited means and certain complications that would arise from my financial situation; however, I would certainly do it if I felt the situation called for it.

[Sharky]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

I'm staying in the thread vs PMing you because I think others might have interest in this as well.

Any idea how a foreign national obtains citizenship?

Maybe we should start a new thread?

The first step is to become a Permanent Resident. Several different options there, but the best one for most people is the Skilled Migrant program (that's what I did). Although you can get in without having a job, everything goes much faster and easier if you have a job offer at the time you apply.

http://www.immigration.govt.nz/

Then, after you've lived here for five years, you can become a citizen. Gotta pay US income taxes in the mean time, unfortunately -- although the US does give you a credit for foreign taxes paid.

BTW, I know a number of commercial and private pilots in the area. I think the airport near me has three large helicopter companies, even though the area population is only about 60,000. Lots of flying for farmers, from what I understand. I've also heard a few good stories from farmers who bought and fly their own aircraft. One that comes to mind: "They keep telling me I should get insurance. I keep telling them that if I crash, I won't need insurance, and besides, no one wants to insure a guy like me who's in his eighties and flying helicopters."