Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

[jtabeb]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

No Jtabeb - you got that back to front - it's set for it's next leg UP according to the above thesis. (this is the DOLLAR index we are talking about)

Yes, you said what I meant. FDI UP not down. Sorry for the confusion.

BTW, I pocketed all the gains on my uraniums so far this year. (Turned them in to realized gains last week)

[allenjs]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Agreed, "Golden" and "treasury" are not in the same league, let alone ball park.

Haha, thanks guys! I'll take "over-think" as a compliment, since I'm so uninformed about treasuries.

[Guest]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Well ain't you a greedy bugger. ;) There's more on the table, but maybe you are feeling stuffed as a fat goose right now on what you've reaped in the first five months of 2009. Impatient guy. One of those "show me the f234king money NOW! types. Just my 0.2 cents but those little guys have another *four years* to run. Four and a half more years to run - flat, wide open six lane highway ahead of 'em.

Yes, you said what I meant. FDI UP not down. Sorry for the confusion.

BTW, I pocketed all the gains on my uraniums so far this year. (Turned them in to realized gains last week)

[Guest]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

I don't understand how the treasuries can continue to crash hard here, if the USD turns around and starts heading sharply north all over again. The advice I'm getting says the stock markets have a "moderate" 10% decline across the board, but the commodities, gold / silver, and all these inflation plays are going to get taken out to the woodshed in the next few weeks and done in something ugly. USD is bruited to be about the only thing to strengthen. And the advice I got is it is going to shoot up as much as four dollars in one to two weeks here, when it turns.

USD going back up to 90 on the index? Strange freaking world. This action could last for months and months IMO.

[Mega]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Hhmm..................i stay out of this one.
Mike

[*T*]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Well ain't you a greedy bugger. ;) There's more on the table, but maybe you are feeling stuffed as a fat goose right now on what you've reaped in the first five months of 2009. Impatient guy. One of those "show me the f234king money NOW! types. Just my 0.2 cents but those little guys have another *four years* to run. Four and a half more years to run - flat, wide open six lane highway ahead of 'em.

A bird in the hand etc

[nero3]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

That spreads are wide like in 1992 suggest we are about to enter a boom.

It is always dangerous to try and justify why it should be different this time.

[metalman]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

That spreads are wide like in 1992 suggest we are about to enter a boom.

It is always dangerous to try and justify why it should be different this time.

was the gov't buying across the yield curve in 1992? underwriting 95% of mortgages?

[WDCRob]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

That spreads are wide like in 1992 suggest we are about to enter a boom.

It is always dangerous to try and justify why it should be different this time.

Would that be more or less dangerous than ignoring the gigantic, actual differences?

[nero3]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Would that be more or less dangerous than ignoring the gigantic, actual differences?

I think that the yield curve is starting to look a lot more like the curve in 2003, and because the inflation now is at a higher level out from the pit, there will be a lot more inflation and stagflation, (unless the fed attempt to create a double dip recession) to then have a deflationary boom, however I doubt we are ready for a deflationary boom yet. Maybe in 2014-2016. And I doubt the fed will create a double dip recession.

Today the market certainly seems to be reacting to the spike in treasury yields, as that drive a fear of higher short term rates as well (as the drag it can create on the housing market). The fed could hike short term rates, even the economy is bad.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

The yield on the ten-year is rapidly approaching 4%.



It's up to 3.68 as of this moment.

[jtabeb]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

I don't understand how the treasuries can continue to crash hard here, if the USD turns around and starts heading sharply north all over again. The advice I'm getting says the stock markets have a "moderate" 10% decline across the board, but the commodities, gold / silver, and all these inflation plays are going to get taken out to the woodshed in the next few weeks and done in something ugly. USD is bruited to be about the only thing to strengthen. And the advice I got is it is going to shoot up as much as four dollars in one to two weeks here, when it turns.

USD going back up to 90 on the index? Strange freaking world. This action could last for months and months IMO.

I don't see a 10% decline in stocks if the dollar rallies hard to 90 ish, do you.

I do see paper gold and silver getting schwacked, but as a owner of physical (and holder until I'm dead kind of guy) I don't really care.

That's why I cashed in on my 300-600% gains on the Uraniums this year, just too much money to leave on the table only to have a dollar rally take it all away.

I'm thinking I will jump back in if there is a large enough price pull-back.

I've learned it's not having large gains that's hard, it's the keeping em part that is the difficulty.

A missed opportunity is exactly that, but there are always more opportunities. A loss is a LOSS, and that has to come out of future gains or more capital. I'll take good gains when I can get them, I've learned that I can do far better by taking my gains when I can, and then re-investing at the right price than holding and watching +400% up, -75% down volitility.

+300% (heck even +50% up) and zero down, over and over again is just fine by me.

[ricket]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

The yield on the ten-year is rapidly approaching 4%.

It's up to 3.68 as of this moment.

3.70 as of 3:22 PM EST

3.71 as of 3:43 PM EST

3.74 as of 4:26 PM EST

[Housing-Bubble]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

anyone else buy TBT (look it up at finance.yahoo.com) to profit on this? I, by trade am a (poor?) financial advisor but, this has been one of my client's best investments. yes, i AM new, but no, this is NOT spam btw... TBT double shorts the price of treasuries. there are a few other similar ETFs that do the same.

[jpatter666]

Re: Treasuries cracking now: "financial Krakatoa"

Yep. Wish I'd bought options on it! :rolleyes:

Question is, will the trend continue or the Fed fight back?