Future in Diesels?

[flintlock]

This latest announcement by the White House that they are going to require 30 mpg from light trucks by 2016 has got me thinking about how the hell they will make it. That's really not that far away, and you don't design cars or trucks in a month. I'm no expert but I don't see that happening without the use of diesel engines. The current Chevy Silverado Hybrid only gets 22 mpg hwy, and if I'm not mistaken, that's the best full size light truck mpg right now.

Lighten things a bit, make them smaller, slower. That all will help. But I suspect we'll see a lot less pickup and SUV sales in general. Gone will be the days of the full sized, crew cab, 4x4 pickup being used as a commuter car. But those of us who use trucks to make a living will still need something to haul more than people around. I assume work trucks will get around this by going with 3/4 ton vehicles exempt from the MPG requirements.?:confused: Not sure what the rules will be on that. But if they exempt these vehicles then we'll just see people forgoing the light duty 1/2 tons for the heavier versions. So the requirement may actually backfire and produce more low mpg trucks on the road.

Anyway, to get back to my point, I've read here and elsewhere that diesels may finally be ready to make it big in the USA. I tend to agree, especially in light of this new mpg requirement. Gas powered cars are already topping those numbers, and hence my main question would be about diesels in trucks. Anyone have any input about the future of diesels in the USA in regards to the current technology and its ability to achieve 30 mpg in a 5000lb+ truck?

1) Is 30mpg in a full sized truck possible with current technology?

2) If so, who has this?

3) Do any US automakers currently have the capability of developing these high MPG diesels? I know they make a lot of powerful diesels for Heavy duty trucks, but these are very expensive and don't turn in those kind of numbers. And they are going to be pretty busy reorganizing after the bankruptcy. Well GM at least.

I'm just wondering if there is a investment angle here.

[charliebrown]

Re: Future in Diesels?

hey flintlock!

Don't know nothing about nothing, but besides the MPG requirement, there are going to be other restrictions on tail pipe emissions. Can Diesel burn clean enough to match these requirement too?

Still like your idea.

[ASH]

Re: Future in Diesels?

This latest announcement by the White House that they are going to require 30 mpg from light trucks by 2016 has got me thinking about how the hell they will make it. That's really not that far away, and you don't design cars or trucks in a month...

Or, will a different administration be in charge of the EPA by 2016, and possibly relax the requirement?

... Not to detract from your speculation about diesel, which seems reasonable to me. But that discussion lies outside my ken. I'm just wondering if some of these policy initiatives won't outlive the Obama adminstration, and if the economy follows the trajectory that EJ predicts, whether Obama will get two terms.

[santafe2]

Re: Future in Diesels?

I'm no expert but I don't see that happening without the use of diesel engines.

I won't speak for him but EJ is apparently in this camp. Alt fuel=boondoggle and diesel=mainstream. I don't get this but hopefully someone will take the time to explain it.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Future in Diesels?

Way down here in little ole' New Zealand we have a plethora of good pickup trucks...better known as Utes.

Toyota Hilux

Mitsubishi L200

Nissan Navara

Are the most common Utes available as well as options from Ford and Holden/GM.

I currently own a beat up Mitsi L200 2.5l diesel doublecab that gets over 30mpg.

A business I own uses Nissan Navara diesels that get over 30mpg

And the Toyota Hilux diesel can get over 30mpg.

They can carry almost as much as full-size US pickup trucks, they can tow almost as much as full-size US pickup trucks, and can cram nearly as many people in their doublecabs as full-size US pickup trucks, but I reckon they are at least 200% better.

Cheaper to run, easier to park, but just as reliable and dependable...the higher the price of petrol/diesel goes...the better an economical diesel Ute looks over it's old-school competition.

I reckon with a focus on aerodynamics, right-sized tyres appropriate for the job rather than aesthetics, and effective use of weight saving materials where appropriate....I think a well designed and smart-sized pickup truck could potentially achieve 40mpg over the next 5 years with some decent effort.

Just my 0.02c

[flintlock]

Re: Future in Diesels?

Or, will a different administration be in charge of the EPA by 2016, and possibly relax the requirement?

... Not to detract from your speculation about diesel, which seems reasonable to me. But that discussion lies outside my ken. I'm just wondering if some of these policy initiatives won't outlive the Obama adminstration, and if the economy follows the trajectory that EJ predicts, whether Obama will get two terms.

That crossed my mind also, but its not like they can afford to sit on their hands and hope for a change in policy. This stuff has to be developed years in advance. I know the big three US automakers already have smaller diesel engines developed for their pickups, but that still only will put them at about 25 mpg. Of course these were designed with high HP in mind, as we Americans love speed. But I suspect they can downsize these engines into a good compromise.

[flintlock]

Re: Future in Diesels?

hey flintlock!

Don't know nothing about nothing, but besides the MPG requirement, there are going to be other restrictions on tail pipe emissions. Can Diesel burn clean enough to match these requirement too?

Still like your idea.

Emissions has always been the problem. They came out with a cleaner burning diesels a few years ago, but that reduced mileage by about 2 mpg on the big pickups. That's real world mpg. They claimed it didn't hurt mpg of course.
If they hike the emissions more then we are back to square one again. They'll kill the efficiency. Europe has less stringent emissions, hence the sucessful use of diesel over there. $8 gallon gas doesn't hurt either.

SantaFe I'm sure this is just going to be a stop gap technology. Apparently diesel just has the most potential energy out of a barrel of oil vs gas. So until they invent a practical alternative, internal combustion engines are going to be the norm. I'm no expert but I came to the same conclusion that others have. Diesel is the best practical, well established mpg engine out there now. We know they work. They are quite powerful for their size too.

A lot of other technologies have promise, but people tend to look at vehicles just as commuter cars. So they can be very small and lightweight. But in reality, some of us need a lot more than that out of a vehicle. Sorry, but if I have to run my electrical business out of a Prius, I quit.

[flintlock]

Re: Future in Diesels?

Way down here in little ole' New Zealand we have a plethora of good pickup trucks...better known as Utes.

Toyota Hilux

Mitsubishi L200

Nissan Navara

Are the most common Utes available as well as options from Ford and Holden/GM.

I currently own a beat up Mitsi L200 2.5l diesel doublecab that gets over 30mpg.

A business I own uses Nissan Navara diesels that get over 30mpg

And the Toyota Hilux diesel can get over 30mpg.

They can carry almost as much as full-size US pickup trucks, they can tow almost as much as full-size US pickup trucks, and can cram nearly as many people in their doublecabs as full-size US pickup trucks, but I reckon they are at least 200% better.

Cheaper to run, easier to park, but just as reliable and dependable...the higher the price of petrol/diesel goes...the better an economical diesel Ute looks over it's old-school competition.

I reckon with a focus on aerodynamics, right-sized tyres appropriate for the job rather than aesthetics, and effective use of weight saving materials where appropriate....I think a well designed and smart-sized pickup truck could potentially achieve 40mpg over the next 5 years with some decent effort.

Just my 0.02c

That interesting. Are the emissions requirements as strict though? I've read that is one reason diesel never took off in the states.

Wow, I checked out the mpg. They really do get that good mileage. The Toyota Hilux is similar to our Tacoma. Nice truck and if they got 30 mpg under our emissions standards, they wouldn't be able to make enough they'd sell so well.

http://www.toyotahilux.info/index.htm

My brother has a Tacoma and its really like a midsize, so I could see them being able to make a full size pickup that would get 30 mpg with a little more effort. That answered my question, thanks.

[thunderdownunder]

Re: Future in Diesels?

one word = Degas motors
(desiel/LPG gas hybrid) currently in use downunder =Clean burning+ more power & Torque.Also works for the Big rigs on a cost basis in this country where we have cheap LPG.

[Chomsky]

Re: Future in Diesels?

I won't speak for him but EJ is apparently in this camp. Alt fuel=boondoggle and diesel=mainstream. I don't get this but hopefully someone will take the time to explain it.

EJ recently said:

In my book I devote a large section on debunking alternative fuels. I compare most to dehydrated water: just add water. Same with most alternative liquid fuels, especially ethanol: just add energy. Those that can be produced by converting fossil fuels are more practical. Diesel is the fuel of the future.

http://itulip.com/forums/showpost.ph...21&postcount=1

It costs almost as much energy (and sometimes more) to produce "alternate fuels" like ethanol than the fuel yields.

[strittmatter]

Re: Future in Diesels?

In the mid 90's I bought a used Isuzu diesel P'up for a farmhand to drive. The thing averaged close to 42 mpg. Tranny went bad, parts no longer available, had to park it.



I drive an 06 dodge diesel (Cummins). Installed an open air breather kit and a performance enhancement chip. Mpg averages between 24 - 26.

I have a local mechanic friend who drives a 98' dodge diesel. I cannot get him to tell me what he did to his engine, but he in fact made some modifications such that he claims to get around 35 mpg.

FWIW.

[Thailandnotes]

Re: Future in Diesels?

I've owned 3 trucks in my life. A 1988 Ford 150 (brother still drives it to the farmers market), a 1990 Nissan (still going strong in the states) and now another Ford (diesel) in Thailand. Every truck here is diesel. In size and weight, they are between the 150 and little Nissan.

Before I bought this latest Ford, I had owned a small Toyota sedan. The bigger truck gets much better mileage. I'm sure it's over 30 mpg. I used to fill the Toyota up every weekend. I fill the Ford up every other. Different size tanks, but still, a lot of gas and money saved.

Most people who have lived overseas, have shaken their heads several times about cars, thinking, "Why don't they sell these in the states?"

[flintlock]

Re: Future in Diesels?

In the mid 90's I bought a used Isuzu diesel P'up for a farmhand to drive. The thing averaged close to 42 mpg. Tranny went bad, parts no longer available, had to park it.



I drive an 06 dodge diesel (Cummins). Installed an open air breather kit and a performance enhancement chip. Mpg averages between 24 - 26.

I have a local mechanic friend who drives a 98' dodge diesel. I cannot get him to tell me what he did to his engine, but he in fact made some modifications such that he claims to get around 35 mpg.

FWIW.

It's my understanding people are getting worse fuel mileage with the latest cummins engine due to the newer smog rules. A website devoted to diesel engines said 2 mpg less!

Thanks for all the replies. Very helpful.

[strittmatter]

Re: Future in Diesels?

It's my understanding people are getting worse fuel mileage with the latest cummins engine due to the newer smog rules. A website devoted to diesel engines said 2 mpg less!

Thanks for all the replies. Very helpful.

This is true.

The consensus I hear on the post emissions engines in the semi haulers is that they run hotter, less power, and less fuel economy. For the last couple of years prior to the new emissions standards deadline, the local Peterbilt plant here could not keep up with new orders.

[Penguin]

Re: Future in Diesels?

Yeah, when it comes to pure mileage it is very difficult to beat a good diesel or diesel hybrid. There are a lot of reasons for this but the bottom line is that efficiency will increase with compression ratio and in this arena the diesel is king.

I know the political and social mood has changed significantly, but a while back in grad school a lot of my professors were involved in a collaborative research project funded by the government. There were several schools that had unique specialties in IC engine design and testing which explored various parts of the question: Is a 75 mile per gallon automobile possible or feasible. The answer was yes, it is possible but it requires a much lighter and smaller vehicle and it needed to be powered by a diesel hybrid. I saw parts of the report and it was very impressive. But it conflicted with the EPA agenda and was mothballed.

Back to reality. As far as truck diesels go GM was just set to bring online what would have probably been the premier small truck engine in the world when this whole economic collapse occurred. As far as I know the project's future is very much in doubt and I have no idea whether it will ever make it out the factory door now. It would have given fuel mileage in the upper to mid 20s for a full sized Silverado. It was to be rated around 300 to 310 hp and torque in the range of 500 ft-lb. A very nicely done V-8. We'll see if it happens or not after the bankruptcy.

As has been noted there is a tradeoff between emissions and mileage. But there is also a tradeoff many times between power rating and efficiency. In America power has traditionally trumped efficiency in the market. But if it is mandated I do believe (although nowadays I am in a different area of IC engine design and could be woefully wrong on this matter) that a pickup that gets 30 mpg is possible with a slightly lighter and trimmer package. Maybe even with the trucks as they stand right now.

Will