Dr. "H" explains our Inevitable Impoverishment

[rogermexico]

Re: Dr. "H" explains our Inevitable Impoverishment

Hudson is a respected economist.
EJ is a respected economist.
They apparently differ radically on their vision of the future -- deflation vs. inflation.

Is that not worthy of discussion?

Well not to me, for reasons I have stated, but anyone else can pitch in if they want.

Yet, you feel compelled to derail my post by imputing negative motives on my part, suggesting that I believe EJ is deriving his theories from Hudson and Keene . . . or that I'm saying that "all EJs sources must resonate perfectly with EJ and Kapoom theory".

I'm sorry, rogermexico, but I will not respond to your posts anymore. You seem incapable of rational discussion on the points I bring up, but instead respond with ad hominums in an attempt to discredit my position. I have complained about this behavior of yours in the Paleo nutrition thread, but you persist . . . .

Boy, are you sensitive, or what? Pot calling the kettle black once again.

"behavior" "ad hominum" "incapable of rational discussion" "derailing my post" "imputing negative motives" - how many of these ad hominems did I use in my response to your post?

For Christ's sake, EJ is deriving parts of his theories from them and there is nothing wrong with that, nor did I say their was. The only "ad hominem" attacks occurring are in your head.

You asked the question "...Hudson is no economic lightweight, and he seems to command some respect around here, so why no comments? Did I miss it?"

Mine was a sincere attempt to answer your question, i.e., why there were no comments, get it?

From now on, I will be very happy if you don't respond if you are going to accuse me of accusing you of something that isn't even an accusation. Feel free to stop threatening me and just put me on "ignore", I am sure I'll manage.

Besides, you already threatened once not to ever respond to me again the last time you were frustrated.

Relax

[santafe2]

Re: Dr. "H" explains our Inevitable Impoverishment

hussman is a really smart guy. i've been following him since the EARLY 90's, when i subscribed to his newsletter before he founded his funds. back then he was stuck on value, and kept berating the craziness of the '90s tech/dot.com boom. but as true as his critiques were, he lost money because of the persistance of the irrationality. when he first founded his strategic growth fund he had developed the concept of "market climate" as a factor to weigh along with value. market climate is essentially a measure of animal spirits, i.e. how much are people wanting to take on risk. [as an aside, i'll note that in 2007 jeremy grantham's outfit calculated that risk was being valued so highly, that people were accepting negative predicted rates of return in order to take risk.]

hussman did really well in his first several years with the strategic growth fund. he made serious money during the bear market from 2000 to 2002-3, because he held index puts which produced profits which far exceeded the losses he sustained on his conservative, non-tech stock portfolio. [he never goes net short, but he will go to a balanced long-short position, and hope to make money on the hedge. in 2001 he made14.7%, in 2002 14%, in 2003 21.1%]

through that period i had 30% of my assets in his fund. sometime in 2007, iirc, some anomalous performance during a small market sell-off made me take a closer look at his long portfolio. i then realized that i really didn't like his positions. i liked his market timing, but not his choice of longs at that time. i felt that he didn't "get" the changes going on, that his choices were conventional while i thought we were entering unconventional times. i started selling and got out. in 2008 he lost 9% - a lot better than the indices, but i don't like to lose money.

Thanks for the Hussman update jk. This is my take on him as well. Good academic but he doesn't so much time the market as the market occasionally meshes with his value point of view. That said, he was an advocate of YUM in 1997-1998 and my then 9 year old daughter and her friends would not eat anywhere but Taco Bell. I don't know if I should give credit to Hussman or the 9 year-olds, but credit is due.