Unemployment forges ahead

[santafe2]

This is not turning out well. Anyone care to guess when this slows down?

A total of 637,000 people filed new claims for jobless benefits in the week ended May 9, the Labor Department said. That's an increase of 32,000 from an upwardly revised 605,000 in the previous week.

The 4-week moving average of initial claims, which smoothes out volatility in the measure, rose 6,000 to 630,500.

In the week ended May 2, the most recent data available, 6,560,000 continuing claims were filed. That's the highest number since the Labor Department started tracking the data in 1967...The unemployment rate now stands at a 25-year high of 8.9%.

http://money.cnn.com/2009/05/14/news...ion=2009051408

[Slimprofits]

Re: Unemployment forges ahead

Let us not forget the beyond celebratory mood in the msm last week about that initial number of 605,000.

[ASH]

Re: Unemployment forges ahead

This is not turning out well. Anyone care to guess when this slows down?

Well, at least we know the unemployment rate is bounded by the number of possible workers!

I think the rate of job losses will slow down once --

• the jobs tied to discretionary consumption have been pared away, leaving federal employees and jobs associated with providing "staple" goods and services (an iterative process lasting years?)
• which might be pre-empted if the federal government gets more serious about targetting stimulus money specifically to create jobs, as opposed to relying upon a multiplier effect (by mid-term elections 2010?)

I think employment will recover once --

• a significant portion of the private debt overhang is discharged (through default, devaluation, and transfer to the public -- before elections in 2012?)
• consumer credit expansion resumes (goes hand-in-hand with discharge of existing debt)

Which ought to eventually happen, unless --

• the federal government blows its credit limit first, and loses the ability to "stimulate" or take on additional debt
• and in the process, creates enough inflation to disrupt normal economic activity

In which case --

• much higher unemployment for "a long time"
• government substitutes decree for spending, and rationing/redistribution for employment -- meaning that when the government is unable to manage the economy through fiscal and monetary policy because its ability to borrow is shot, it will instead manage by nationalization and central planning

[Fiat Currency]

Re: Unemployment forges ahead

I believe that puts the US at about 6.6 million unemployed. If I recall correctly EJ was saying 10 million. That would mean that you're about two-thirds of the way through the unemployment journey.

Is that how others read it?

[phirang]

Re: Unemployment forges ahead

The unemployment trend is your friend if you're long treasuries.

[jtabeb]

Re: Unemployment forges ahead
[*]the federal government blows its credit limit first, and loses the ability to "stimulate" or take on additional debt[*]and in the process, creates enough inflation to disrupt normal economic activity[

In which case --
[*]much higher unemployment for "a long time"[*]government substitutes decree for spending, and rationing/redistribution for employment -- meaning that when the government is unable to manage the economy through fiscal and monetary policy because its ability to borrow is shot, it will instead manage by nationalization and central planning.


Ah HA! I new it! You are paying attention!

[jtabeb]

Re: Unemployment forges ahead

The unemployment trend is your friend if you're long treasuries.

Not if you live in Zimbabwe!

[charliebrown]

Re: Unemployment forges ahead

WTH!? unemployment rising, inflation rising, socialism rising, taxes rising, ?? Stock market rising?? ?? Corporate Bonds Rising ??

Deja-vu here just like the dot-com era where earnings dont matter?

[Chomsky]

Re: Unemployment forges ahead

I believe that puts the US at about 6.6 million unemployed. If I recall correctly EJ was saying 10 million. That would mean that you're about two-thirds of the way through the unemployment journey.

Is that how others read it?

I believe the call was 13 million as an upper bound:

http://itulip.com/forums/showpost.ph...07&postcount=1