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Is America about to go broke?
Government obligations for Social Security and Medicare may soon exceed the combined
net worth of every household and nonprofit organization in the country.
By Scott Burns
Prices dropped last year. But we still need to invest to protect ourselves from inflation. That's why our
retirement-plan investing needs an inflation "tilt." You'll understand why in a few paragraphs.
How bad will future inflation be? I don't know. Neither does anyone else. It could be a normal inflation of
3% to 4% a year. It could also be a banana-republic 10% a month.
What we know is that all governments make promises they can't fulfill. Our government
certainly has. Under both political parties, it has taken promise making to a high art. This is not
hyperbole. The figures can be found in regularly published government reports.
Much worse than you probably think
The figures exist, but they are ignored. News reports regularly inform us of the growing federal deficit,
projected at a stunning $1.75 trillion for fiscal 2009 and $1.17 trillion for 2010. But regularly
reported, less visible government obligations have been growing much faster.
In the four years from January 2004 to January 2008, the Medicare trustees reported that the unfunded
liabilities of Social Security and Medicare grew by a stunning $10.4 trillion. The average annual growth
topped $2.5 trillion.
Inflation on the way? Bet on it
That was well over the expected formal deficit of $1.75 trillion this year.
In the 2008 trustees' report (.pdf file), the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare -- promises
of future retirement and health care benefits -- total $42.9 trillion. In a few days, we should be able to
read the 2009 report. It's a good bet that the unfunded liabilities will show an increase in the new report.
Ironically, payroll tax payments are still large enough that the Social Security and Medicare programs don't
need every dime. The extra money goes into the program trust funds as Treasury debt. The actual cash is
spent elsewhere. Basically, the employment tax has been subsidizing other federal spending. This has been
going on since the 1983 "reform" of Social Security, a disaster chaired by Alan Greenspan, later the Federal Reserve chairman.
Today's deficits? That's nothing
Last year's Social Security trustee report estimates that OASDI (Social Security retirement and disability)
and HI (hospital insurance), excluding book entry interest for the trust funds, will have more revenue than
expenses until 2015. If higher cost assumptions prevail, however, the last year of positive flow will be 2010.
That's next year.
I am not making this up. It is public record. You can see for yourself by examining table VI.F9 on page 191
of the 2008 trustees' report.
When Social Security and Medicare costs exceed their revenues, the Treasury will have to borrow money
to cover the shortfalls. When that happens, today's stunning deficits will look small.
That's why our future contains inflation, not deflation.
The upside-down nation
There is another way to see how serious our situation is: Compare the unfunded liabilities of Social
Security and Medicare with the net worth of every household in America.
According to the Federal Reserve flow-of-funds figures for year-end 2007, our collective net worth as
consumers was $62.7 trillion. By the end of 2008, the same figure had fallen to $51.5 trillion. Another year
of growth for Social Security and Medicare liabilities would bring total unfunded government promises to
about $46 trillion. That's nearly 90% of our net worth.
If consumer net worth fell an additional $5 trillion -- the same amount it fell in the last three months of
2008 -- we'd be broke.
Yes, you read that right.
Inflation on the way? Bet on it
Government obligations for basic programs would exceed the net worth of every household and nonprofit
organization in America.
We'd be the upside-down nation.
Below: This table compares the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare over the next 75 years,
which is the standard measure, with the net worth of all households in America.
Program..........................................J an. 2004............Jan. 2008............Change.......Projected Jan. 2009
Social Security and Disability:..OASDI...$ 3.7 trillion.........$ 6.6 trillion.........$2.9 trillion.......NA*
Hospital insurance: HI........................$ 8.5 trillion.........$12.7 trillion.........$4.2 trillion.......NA
Supplemental medical insurance:
SMI Part B, doctors expenses, etc.......$11.4 trillion.........$15.7 trillion.........$4.3 trillion.......NA
Supplemental medical insurance:
SMI Part D, prescription drugs............$ 8.1 trillion...........$ 7.9 trillion..........($0.2 trillion)....NA
Total unfunded liabilities....................$31.7 trillion..........$42.9 trillion..........$11.2 trillion...$46.0 trillion (estimate)
Consumer net worth.........................$51.9 trillion..........$62.7 trillion..........$10.8 trillion...$51.5 trillion
Unfunded liabilities as % of
consumer net worth.............................61.1%........... .......68.4%...................NA..............89. 3%
*Not available / Sources: Social Security and Medicare trustees' reports, Federal Reserve, author estimate
The only way out of this is to print more money, inflating the value of assets relative to the amount of debt.
Cutting the expense of investing through index funds alone wouldn't solve the inflation problem. In addition
to cutting expenses, we would have to invest a portion of our money in assets that give us a hedge
against inflation: Treasury inflation-protected securities, real-estate investment trusts and energy companies.
Would this be perfect protection? No way. But it would give our savings a fighting chance.
Is America about to go broke?
Government obligations for Social Security and Medicare may soon exceed the combined
net worth of every household and nonprofit organization in the country.
By Scott Burns
Prices dropped last year. But we still need to invest to protect ourselves from inflation. That's why our
retirement-plan investing needs an inflation "tilt." You'll understand why in a few paragraphs.
How bad will future inflation be? I don't know. Neither does anyone else. It could be a normal inflation of
3% to 4% a year. It could also be a banana-republic 10% a month.
What we know is that all governments make promises they can't fulfill. Our government
certainly has. Under both political parties, it has taken promise making to a high art. This is not
hyperbole. The figures can be found in regularly published government reports.
Much worse than you probably think
The figures exist, but they are ignored. News reports regularly inform us of the growing federal deficit,
projected at a stunning $1.75 trillion for fiscal 2009 and $1.17 trillion for 2010. But regularly
reported, less visible government obligations have been growing much faster.
In the four years from January 2004 to January 2008, the Medicare trustees reported that the unfunded
liabilities of Social Security and Medicare grew by a stunning $10.4 trillion. The average annual growth
topped $2.5 trillion.
Inflation on the way? Bet on it
That was well over the expected formal deficit of $1.75 trillion this year.
In the 2008 trustees' report (.pdf file), the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare -- promises
of future retirement and health care benefits -- total $42.9 trillion. In a few days, we should be able to
read the 2009 report. It's a good bet that the unfunded liabilities will show an increase in the new report.
Ironically, payroll tax payments are still large enough that the Social Security and Medicare programs don't
need every dime. The extra money goes into the program trust funds as Treasury debt. The actual cash is
spent elsewhere. Basically, the employment tax has been subsidizing other federal spending. This has been
going on since the 1983 "reform" of Social Security, a disaster chaired by Alan Greenspan, later the Federal Reserve chairman.
Today's deficits? That's nothing
Last year's Social Security trustee report estimates that OASDI (Social Security retirement and disability)
and HI (hospital insurance), excluding book entry interest for the trust funds, will have more revenue than
expenses until 2015. If higher cost assumptions prevail, however, the last year of positive flow will be 2010.
That's next year.
I am not making this up. It is public record. You can see for yourself by examining table VI.F9 on page 191
of the 2008 trustees' report.
When Social Security and Medicare costs exceed their revenues, the Treasury will have to borrow money
to cover the shortfalls. When that happens, today's stunning deficits will look small.
That's why our future contains inflation, not deflation.
The upside-down nation
There is another way to see how serious our situation is: Compare the unfunded liabilities of Social
Security and Medicare with the net worth of every household in America.
According to the Federal Reserve flow-of-funds figures for year-end 2007, our collective net worth as
consumers was $62.7 trillion. By the end of 2008, the same figure had fallen to $51.5 trillion. Another year
of growth for Social Security and Medicare liabilities would bring total unfunded government promises to
about $46 trillion. That's nearly 90% of our net worth.
If consumer net worth fell an additional $5 trillion -- the same amount it fell in the last three months of
2008 -- we'd be broke.
Yes, you read that right.
Inflation on the way? Bet on it
Government obligations for basic programs would exceed the net worth of every household and nonprofit
organization in America.
We'd be the upside-down nation.
Below: This table compares the unfunded liabilities of Social Security and Medicare over the next 75 years,
which is the standard measure, with the net worth of all households in America.
Program..........................................J an. 2004............Jan. 2008............Change.......Projected Jan. 2009
Social Security and Disability:..OASDI...$ 3.7 trillion.........$ 6.6 trillion.........$2.9 trillion.......NA*
Hospital insurance: HI........................$ 8.5 trillion.........$12.7 trillion.........$4.2 trillion.......NA
Supplemental medical insurance:
SMI Part B, doctors expenses, etc.......$11.4 trillion.........$15.7 trillion.........$4.3 trillion.......NA
Supplemental medical insurance:
SMI Part D, prescription drugs............$ 8.1 trillion...........$ 7.9 trillion..........($0.2 trillion)....NA
Total unfunded liabilities....................$31.7 trillion..........$42.9 trillion..........$11.2 trillion...$46.0 trillion (estimate)
Consumer net worth.........................$51.9 trillion..........$62.7 trillion..........$10.8 trillion...$51.5 trillion
Unfunded liabilities as % of
consumer net worth.............................61.1%........... .......68.4%...................NA..............89. 3%
*Not available / Sources: Social Security and Medicare trustees' reports, Federal Reserve, author estimate
The only way out of this is to print more money, inflating the value of assets relative to the amount of debt.
Cutting the expense of investing through index funds alone wouldn't solve the inflation problem. In addition
to cutting expenses, we would have to invest a portion of our money in assets that give us a hedge
against inflation: Treasury inflation-protected securities, real-estate investment trusts and energy companies.
Would this be perfect protection? No way. But it would give our savings a fighting chance.