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'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

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  • 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

    Yeah, surprising to morons...

    http://sanjose.bizjournals.com/sanjo...0/daily88.html

    Finance directors of every city, redevelopment agency and school district in Santa Clara County have been notified that more than 90,000 properties will be valued at less than their purchase prices, the Santa Clara County Assessor reported Friday.

    “It is far more pervasive than I expected, and these preliminary numbers are far from final," said Assessor Larry Stone. “While incomplete, this data is valuable to cities and schools as they plan their budgets."
    The Assessor’s “Proposition 8” analysis said the properties qualify for an assessment reduction, and the total number of affected properties is more than double over the previous year.

    Stone said the market value as of Jan. 1 of approximately 20 percent of all single family homes and one-third of all condominiums have declined below their purchase price. To date, the aggregate reduction exceeds $18 billion, by far the largest decrease in county history.

    The average reduction for a home increased from $78,000 last year to $181,000, and additional reductions are anticipated between now and July 1 when the assessment roll is officially completed.

    Lower assessments will result in negative growth of the county’s assessment roll, something that has happened only once since the Great Depression, Stone said. It is estimated that the assessment roll for Santa Clara County may fall by as much as 2 percent, a far cry from last year's modest growth of 6.98 percent.
    To put this in perspective, in the past 75 years, the Santa Clara County assessment roll was negative only four times: immediately following Proposition 13 in 1978, and in 1932, 1933, and 1936, during the Great Depression,” Stone explained.

  • #2
    Re: 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

    more data:

    ghosts malls:


    http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...MN5J17AUUI.DTL

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

      Originally posted by audrey_girl View Post
      Thanks for that post. For 20 years, before moving to Texas recently, I lived just a few miles from that Dublin shopping mall area described in the article. Economic statistics have a different feel to them when its happening to a place you know well.
      Most folks are good; a few aren't.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

        Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
        Thanks for that post. For 20 years, before moving to Texas recently, I lived just a few miles from that Dublin shopping mall area described in the article. Economic statistics have a different feel to them when its happening to a place you know well.


        sad thing though ...



        in CA the localities are heavily dependent upon the sales tax to fund themselves due to prop 13, as this dries up the effect is going to be catastrophic at these levels of government

        also .... if you have the time listen to this podcast:


        http://www.mcalvany.com/podcast/

        the big bond bust

        the speaker ties together commercial real estate collapse, bond market collapse, local govt and pension fund collapse - amazing and rather upsetting

        its like listening to the National Weather system people telling you that there is a CAT 5 on the way and you had better prepare.

        well worth the time

        regards

        ag
        Last edited by audrey_girl; May 11, 2009, 03:07 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

          Originally posted by audrey_girl View Post
          its like listening to the National Weather system people telling you that there is a CAT 5 on the way and you had better prepare.
          Yeah.

          Is that your dog in your avatar? She's fine looking.

          A good dog at a time like this could be precious.

          EJ has hinted that he too sees a dark side to whats coming, darker than he feels comfortable describing too explicitly here.

          In an odd way, it's a hopeful sign to me. It's going to take some serious dynamite to remove the bulk of the corruption dominating our country. We may just get it. Through the Valley of the Shadow of Death :eek:.
          Most folks are good; a few aren't.

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

            Originally posted by ThePythonicCow View Post
            Yeah.

            Is that your dog in your avatar? She's fine looking.

            A good dog at a time like this could be precious.

            EJ has hinted that he too sees a dark side to whats coming, darker than he feels comfortable describing too explicitly here.

            In an odd way, it's a hopeful sign to me. It's going to take some serious dynamite to remove the bulk of the corruption dominating our country. We may just get it. Through the Valley of the Shadow of Death :eek:.



            good people and pets will pull us all through

            "No matter how little money you have and how few possessions you own, having a dog makes you rich."

            - Louis Sabin

            very best regards -

            ag

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

              Interesting pod cast. A thirty year bull market in bonds...a bond bubble about to burst? Do we sell it short? How do we time it? :confused:

              Perhaps, there is another way of looking at it. If you think of debt in terms of supply and demand, there has been an ever increasing supply of debt for the past thirty years. It makes sense that it would be getting cheaper (i.e., demanding lower and lower interest rates).

              Maybe, they just keep making more debt and interest rates keep getting cheaper, due to over supply. We can just spend our way out of this!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

                Originally posted by dummass View Post
                Interesting pod cast. A thirty year bull market in bonds...a bond bubble about to burst? Do we sell it short? How do we time it? :confused:

                Perhaps, there is another way of looking at it. If you think of debt in terms of supply and demand, there has been an ever increasing supply of debt for the past thirty years. It makes sense that it would be getting cheaper (i.e., demanding lower and lower interest rates).

                Maybe, they just keep making more debt and interest rates keep getting cheaper, due to over supply. We can just spend our way out of this!

                Well it certainly shouldn't work like that. But in Bizzaro World.......

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

                  Why not? Fiat debt shouldn't require high marginal rates of returns. The cost of production is very low; it can be produced cheaply.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 'Surprising' state and local tax shortfalls: anecdote

                    Originally posted by dummass View Post
                    Why not? Fiat debt shouldn't require high marginal rates of returns. The cost of production is very low; it can be produced cheaply.

                    Yes the cost of production is low. It's the other costs which are high.:eek:

                    Comment

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