Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

[blazespinnaker]

Ok, obviously we are in a new phase of some sort.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...l3I&refer=home

All indicators are trending up, even unemployment is surprising to the upside.

Here's how I think it'll play -

I think stagflation will be right around the corner *unless* we can create cheap energy. Obviously all this money is going to chase assets and push up their prices, especially oil.

Fortunately, a large chunk of the stimulus went to alt energy, so we're going down the right road there.

[Wild Style]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

Anyone know year over year unemployment numbers? I would find that to be a bit more relevant than a six months trend.

[Glenn Black]

New phase in Ka-Poom???

Payrolls fell by 539,000, after a 699,000 loss in March, while the unemployment rate rose to 8.9 percent, the highest level since 1983, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The Commerce Department separately said that wholesalers reduced their supply of unsold goods for a seventh month in March.
...
The jobless rate was projected to jump to 8.9 percent from 8.5 percent. Forecasts ranged from 8.6 percent to 9.1 percent.
Since the recession started in December 2007, the world’s largest economy has lost the most jobs of any economic slump since the Great Depression.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...l3I&refer=home

Take bad news and put a positive spin on it, and this becomes good news? I don't think so.

Unemployment went from 8.5% to 8.9%. Forecasts thought it would be between 8.6% & 9.1% (average of forecasts is 8.85%). The 8.9% actual unemployment is within the expected range of worsening unemployment, and is worse than the average forecast (8.85% average forecast vs. 8.9% actual); hairsplitting at its best to see a difference here. I assume all of these numbers have a accuracy of +0.5% and are statistically irrelevant for differences less than 0.5%.

Only the Great Depression has lost more jobs between Dec/07 and now. That's cheery.

Wholesale inventory has gone down because retail stores have slowed/stopped buying and retail/wholesale are slowly working through their excess stock at fire sale prices. Restore normal pricing (ie. eliminate fire sale prices) and sales go dead. Good news? I think not. It's price bribery to move stock before it goes obsolete.

As was said in previous posts, jump out window and you continue accelerating till you reach terminal velocity (drag=gravity, so you stop accelerating, holding constant velocity at about 130 mph) until you hit the pavement, then you suddenly decelerate to zero velocity and zero acceleration. It gives us something to look forward to.

I'm reminded of the old joke: Someone falls from the top floor of a skyscraper, and passes an open window at the 3rd floor. Someone inside a 3rd floor office yells out, "How's it going?". The victim falling to their death was heard to say, "So far, so good."

[jtabeb]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

Ok, obviously we are in a new phase of some sort.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...l3I&refer=home

All indicators are trending up, even unemployment is surprising to the upside.

Here's how I think it'll play -

I think stagflation will be right around the corner *unless* we can create cheap energy. Obviously all this money is going to chase assets and push up their prices, especially oil.

Fortunately, a large chunk of the stimulus went to alt energy, so we're going down the right road there.

NOPE, this is the POP before the big KA. The next one will be the REAL MO-FO, it will have RISING INTEREST RATES! That's when you get a REAL DEBT DEFLATION, due to folks being bankrupt. Don't confuse fiction with reality. (Big mistake)

Here you go Blaze, this should set you straight.

http://us1.institutionalriskanalytic...ry.asp?tag=358

[*T*]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

NOPE, this is the POP before the big KA. The next one will be the REAL MO-FO, it will have RISING INTEREST RATES! That's when you get a REAL DEBT DEFLATION, due to folks being bankrupt. Don't confuse fiction with reality. (Big mistake)

Here you go Blaze, this should set you straight.

http://us1.institutionalriskanalytic...ry.asp?tag=358

Yields on longer dated bonds already rising, the fed's buying is not enough to counter supply. Yet. When it is... watch out dollar.

Having said that my only stocks, FSLR and PVCS.L, have done quite well. Dunno whether to hold or dump.

[jtabeb]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

Yields on longer dated bonds already rising, the fed's buying is not enough to counter supply. Yet. When it is... watch out dollar.

Having said that my only stocks, FSLR and PVCS.L, have done quite well. Dunno whether to hold or dump.

I dunno, seems to easy to go inflation-deflation-inflation.

I'll bet we get Ka-pooo-KAAAAAAA-POOOOOOOOOOOOOM or something to that effect.

[sn1p3r]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

Either way, I'm expecting a lot of POO

[WildspitzE]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

Ok, obviously we are in a new phase of some sort.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...l3I&refer=home

All indicators are trending up, even unemployment is surprising to the upside.

Here's how I think it'll play -

I think stagflation will be right around the corner *unless* we can create cheap energy. Obviously all this money is going to chase assets and push up their prices, especially oil.

Fortunately, a large chunk of the stimulus went to alt energy, so we're going down the right road there.

That story is so full of spin. I love how they compare the revised 699k number versus the to-be-revised number of 531k. What a disingenuous crock of media crap. While I agree that certain things are making moves in the upswing, it's not as rosy as they'd like for the simpletons to believe.

Zero does a good job here:
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/0...-lies-and.html

[BadJuju]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

I dunno, seems to easy to go inflation-deflation-inflation.

I'll bet we get Ka-pooo-KAAAAAAA-POOOOOOOOOOOOOM or something to that effect.

It is what I think of.

[charliebrown]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

y-o-y u3 not seasonally adjusted 4/2008 = 4.8; 4/2009 = 8.6
y-o-y u6 not seasonally adjusted 4/2008 = 8.9; 4/2009 = 15.4

some economists think that the duration of employment is a more telling indicator than the actual rate. I guess it makes sense if you have creative destruction taking place, meaning old industries like auto are shedding workers, but they are quickly picked up by a new industry like green energy. But that isnt happening ...

Apr 2008 median unemployment time = 11.0 weeks.
Apr 2009 median unemployment time = 15.4 weeks.
Mar 2009 median unemployment time = 13.1 weeks.

A real useful number to see would be total income. They have average income, but I assume that does not count layed off workers. I think the most important number is what is the total earned income of workers in the united states. As that number goes so goes the nation.

If someone would like to point me to that number on the BLS or some other web site i would be very thankful.

[FRED]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

y-o-y u3 not seasonally adjusted 4/2008 = 4.8; 4/2009 = 8.6
y-o-y u6 not seasonally adjusted 4/2008 = 8.9; 4/2009 = 15.4

some economists think that the duration of employment is a more telling indicator than the actual rate. I guess it makes sense if you have creative destruction taking place, meaning old industries like auto are shedding workers, but they are quickly picked up by a new industry like green energy. But that isnt happening ...

Apr 2008 median unemployment time = 11.0 weeks.
Apr 2009 median unemployment time = 15.4 weeks.
Mar 2009 median unemployment time = 13.1 weeks.

A real useful number to see would be total income. They have average income, but I assume that does not count layed off workers. I think the most important number is what is the total earned income of workers in the united states. As that number goes so goes the nation.

If someone would like to point me to that number on the BLS or some other web site i would be very thankful.

google site:itulip.com duration unemployment

Unemployment by industry: Recession or depression?

Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part I)

Jobs crash arrives on schedule

[goadam1]

Re: New phase in Ka-Poom???

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...l3I&refer=home

Take bad news and put a positive spin on it, and this becomes good news? I don't think so.

Unemployment went from 8.5% to 8.9%. Forecasts thought it would be between 8.6% & 9.1% (average of forecasts is 8.85%). The 8.9% actual unemployment is within the expected range of worsening unemployment, and is worse than the average forecast (8.85% average forecast vs. 8.9% actual); hairsplitting at its best to see a difference here. I assume all of these numbers have a accuracy of +0.5% and are statistically irrelevant for differences less than 0.5%.

Only the Great Depression has lost more jobs between Dec/07 and now. That's cheery.

Wholesale inventory has gone down because retail stores have slowed/stopped buying and retail/wholesale are slowly working through their excess stock at fire sale prices. Restore normal pricing (ie. eliminate fire sale prices) and sales go dead. Good news? I think not. It's price bribery to move stock before it goes obsolete.

As was said in previous posts, jump out window and you continue accelerating till you reach terminal velocity (drag=gravity, so you stop accelerating, holding constant velocity at about 130 mph) until you hit the pavement, then you suddenly decelerate to zero velocity and zero acceleration. It gives us something to look forward to.

I'm reminded of the old joke: Someone falls from the top floor of a skyscraper, and passes an open window at the 3rd floor. Someone inside a 3rd floor office yells out, "How's it going?". The victim falling to their death was heard to say, "So far, so good."

When you are falling and the guy next to you pulls his parachute, it looks like he is going up.

[charliebrown]

Re: Obviously entering the new phase in Ka-Poom

Thanks Fred, it may have been you who most fervently talked about median unemployment time. I know I have heard others state this metric too. So according to the BLS data your forecast has been exceeded.
Is this the peak, or for some new reason are numbers going to go significantly higer based upon some new data?

There has been a lot of meddeling in the economy by the fed gvt. if you're a capitalist, you dont know what the rules are anymore, so do you put your money to work, or hide it in a matress? Especially for the health care and energy industries. Energy prices are back on the rise. These two large trends may cause unemployment to increase even from here.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/nati...pdf/pi0309.pdf

I got the national income. It is bucketized kind of funny, and there are some numbers I don't understand, but if we look at non-gov private wages and propritor income we get.

Q1 2008 6.47T, Q1 2009 6.37T, ergo national income down around 100B yoy 1.5% decline. This number does not jive with the unemployment increase of 4% yoy. Is this a lag effect of the measuring points of the two different series? Or am I not interpreting the BEA data correctly? Unless unemployment is significantly impacting the lower end of the wage scale I would expect at least a 4% decline in national income, as 4% more people don't have a job compared to last year.

Another thing that is hard to believe is the personal income received from interest and dividends. It looks to be down 7% yoy, but unless everyone was an interest rate forecast guru and locked into CD's of very long maturities there is no way interest payments are only down 7%. Two years ago it was easy to get a 5% CD, and money markets were paying around the same. Today you have to scratch to get 1% on a CD and MM are sub 1%. Suprisingly interest and dividend payments are on the order of 15% or so of personal income, so this is a big factor in household cash flow.