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  • Chickens coming home...

    ...to roost.
    ...Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis declined to discuss the stress tests at Bank of America’s annual meeting last week, citing the Fed’s instructions to banks. He said April 20, responding to an analyst’s question, that the company doesn’t expect to require additional capital...
    Another addition to the "What goes around, comes around" file [under the "Let's de-escalate" sub-folder]:
    Bank of Countrywide May Need About $34 Billion of Capital

    May 6 (Bloomberg) -- Regulators have determined that Bank of America Corp. requires about $34 billion in new capital, the largest need among the 19 biggest U.S. banks subjected to stress tests, said a person with knowledge of the matter.

    Bank of America fell 9 percent in trading before U.S. exchanges opened.

    Citigroup Inc.’s shortfall is more limited because the company already plans to convert government preferred shares to common stock, people familiar with the results said. JPMorgan Chase & Co. doesn’t need a deeper reserve against losses, according to people familiar with that company’s result.

    The banks may outline their strategies to add capital, or in other cases buy out government stakes, after the Federal Reserve publishes the stress tests results tomorrow.

    Companies requiring more capital could raise all the funds through conversions of preferred shares if they choose, the people said.

    “To the extent that there are banks that need capital, our hope is that many of them will be able to raise that capital through either private equity offers, or through conversions and exchanges of existing liabilities,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told lawmakers at a hearing in Washington yesterday. “The data we have are accurate reflections of the financial conditions of those banks.”...

    ...“It’s obviously not our intention or desire to have long- term government ownership of banks,” Bernanke said at the congressional Joint Economic Committee. Still, he added that it would likely be a “few years” before banks can end their dependence on government capital.
    Last edited by GRG55; May 06, 2009, 07:57 AM.

  • #2
    Re: Chickens coming home...

    Bernanke said just yesterday that "We've Come a Long Way Since Last Fall". Is it possible that the mighty chief of the Fed not be totally honest with us? :rolleyes:

    Reading this, I realize how easy it is to no longer be shocked by the staggering amounts of bailout money and "capital need" from banks.

    I remember just 2 years or so ago when Exxon recorded the highest profit ever for a US corporation and it was not that far off $34B! (I think if my memory is correct that it was around $15B per Quarter and close to $50B yoy).

    This alone - besides all this analysis being done by iTulip and others - makes me very worried about my cash position; I am even thinking (again ;)) to buy a house just so that I can access a fix 10-year loan @ 5.0%!

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: Chickens coming home...

      Originally posted by LargoWinch View Post

      This alone - besides all this analysis being done by iTulip and others - makes me very worried about my cash position; I am even thinking (again ;)) to buy a house just so that I can access a fix 10-year loan @ 5.0%!

      What cash position?

      Welcome to the jungle baby of the "cashless" position.

      I'm feeling MUCH better now about junking my 401K and IRA and putting in "the other white metal".

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: Chickens coming home...

        [quote=This alone - besides all this analysis being done by iTulip and others - makes me very worried about my cash position; I am even thinking (again ;)) to buy a house just so that I can access a fix 10-year loan @ 5.0%![/quote]

        Me too, Largo. My wife would love for us to have a place near her parents in Florida. That's the domestic side. On the cash position, prices are truly astounding there. I fully expect them to fall further BUT... paying cash for a place that reads out solidly at present in low vacancies, foreclosures, etc. parks a portion of my nearly all-cash position in another vehicle. I would not be looking for any gains or quick sales. With minimum overhead (I'd even keep insurances to a level-headed minimum) we could immediately begin re-building our cash that went into the house. That could be PM time

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: Chickens coming home...

          JT, you do have steel nerves. That is probably due to all that flying around at Mach something ... anyway very fast I am sure.


          As for me, I find that this Canadian fiat bonar is tricky to invest with, especially when following analysis from a US-Centric point of view.

          I am sure you can appreciate the fact that every time a CB thinks it is a good idea to print money, commodities - especially crude - goes up and with it the $CAD bonar.

          Hence, as soon as our fiat matches 1:1 with the world reserve currency: I will hit my very own "eject button" and buy yet more hard assets :p.

          I am also eagerly awaiting iTulip's analysis regarding crude oil. The demand-supply-inflation sensitive nature of the black goo frankly eludes me. Kinda like flying blind...

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: Chickens coming home...

            Originally posted by don View Post
            Me too, Largo. My wife would love for us to have a place near her parents in Florida. That's the domestic side. On the cash position, prices are truly astounding there. I fully expect them to fall further BUT... paying cash for a place that reads out solidly at present in low vacancies, foreclosures, etc. parks a portion of my nearly all-cash position in another vehicle. I would not be looking for any gains or quick sales. With minimum overhead (I'd even keep insurances to a level-headed minimum) we could immediately begin re-building our cash that went into the house. That could be PM time
            I do not want to hijack this thread and turn it into a RE discussion; so I will be brief and then back to BoA and their $34B needs...


            I am holding off because of iTulip's forecast of a real bottom in RE in 2014-2016. That makes a lot of sense to me.

            Also, when in doubt; I step back and evaluate (and perhaps think a little about Japan's experience).

            Lastly, you may find the attached very informative in the event you missed it.
            Attached Files

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: Chickens coming home...

              I have had a checking account with Bank of America, with no balance restrictions, for almost three years.

              Desperate times call for desperate measures. I was planning on close it this month anyways - yes for political reasons - after doing some research I found a local bank that is in fantastic shape.

              We want you to be aware that beginning with statement periods starting on or after June 5, 2009, your Standard Checking account will be assessed a monthly service charge of $9.95. However you can prevent the monthly service charge be meeting one of the following requirements...
              That letter arrived in my mailbox on Monday, just ahead of the stress-test results!

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: Chickens coming home...

                I just computed the Present Value (PV) of this Cash Flow (CF) BoA is now charging you: over $5,000!
                ($5,169 with a period of 100years growing at 2% per annum to be exact).

                I guess little $5,000 by little $5,000 you can pay off billions!

                Calculator here:
                http://www.arachnoid.com/lutusp/finance.html

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: Chickens coming home...

                  Hence, as soon as our fiat matches 1:1 with the world reserve currency: I will hit my very own "eject button" and buy yet more hard assets :p.

                  Well food for thought, I don't have nerves of steel, I'm a chicken and don't want to get killed.:rolleyes:

                  That being said, if you think there is going to be a "run" on the PM "bank" do you think that you will be able to push aside the millions of others that are trying to squeeze into such a tiny liferaft?

                  My caution to you is by the time you KNOW it's time to move, you may not be able to. Please consider that in your investing calculus.

                  (For me, okay? Just think about the above ramification and what it means to you)

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: Chickens coming home...

                    [quote=LargoWinch;96338]

                    I am holding off because of iTulip's forecast of a real bottom in RE in 2014-2016. That makes a lot of sense to me.

                    quote]


                    NO! I beileve they are forcasting a "REAL" BOTTOM in RE in that time frame, e.g. not "NOMINAL", this could be a CRITICAL distinction.

                    Think 100% infaltion with a futher 50% REAL decline in prices. House would still end up being 2X in NOMINAL prices vs what they are today, No one get to buy "REAL" houses, only "NOMINAL" ones.

                    FRED can you please confirm I read your charts correctly. (C/S is also "REAL" so you very much need to pay attention to the distinction)

                    Unless of course you get a "REAL" vs "NOMINAL" salary like the rest of us.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: Chickens coming home...

                      Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                      I have had a checking account with Bank of America, with no balance restrictions, for almost three years.

                      Desperate times call for desperate measures. I was planning on close it this month anyways - yes for political reasons - after doing some research I found a local bank that is in fantastic shape.
                      Had some stuff at Merrill for a number of years, moved every bit of it.

                      Have you noticed any of the local banks ramping up with an open-arms campaign with respect to what you mention above?

                      In my area, cash deposits have increased significantly for many of the smalls over the past 6 months.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: Chickens coming home...

                        NO! I beileve they are forcasting a "REAL" BOTTOM in RE in that time frame, e.g. not "NOMINAL", this could be a CRITICAL distinction.
                        JT, I believe we are saying the same thing.

                        My point is that the bottom will be in real terms not in nominal terms: hence my comment about a "real bottom" i.e. a bottom in real terms.

                        Perhaps I should have been more clear.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: Chickens coming home...

                          Originally posted by babbittd View Post
                          I have had a checking account with Bank of America, with no balance restrictions, for almost three years.

                          Desperate times call for desperate measures. I was planning on close it this month anyways - yes for political reasons - after doing some research I found a local bank that is in fantastic shape.



                          That letter arrived in my mailbox on Monday, just ahead of the stress-test results!
                          My dad recently complained of the same thing from BAC. Up until recently they had been offering him very attractive cc deals, that time has passed.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: Chickens coming home...

                            Originally posted by strittmatter View Post
                            Had some stuff at Merrill for a number of years, moved every bit of it.

                            Have you noticed any of the local banks ramping up with an open-arms campaign with respect to what you mention above?

                            In my area, cash deposits have increased significantly for many of the smalls over the past 6 months.
                            I haven't noticed any vulture campaigns yet.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: Chickens coming home...

                              i dont see how real re can go up unless either
                              real incomes go up, or financial alchemy re-ignites e.g. ninja loans, loaning 5 to 1 on income etc. I know our gvt is trying to push banks to lend again, but what does that mean? I work with some older, financially conservative, upper middle class people, none of them have had a problem getting a refi or a he loan. but they have a long track record of employment, have money in the bank, and are only borrowing 2 times their income. So imho if you cant get a loan its because you are a high risk, dodgey credit, asking to borrow too much, etc. The banks have learned their lesson for now. I'm sure they'll start playing the game of chicken in another 5 years. Why not, if they screw up again they'll get more free money.

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