How long till the roof falls in?

[nero3]

Re: How long till the roof falls in?

I think I have to agree with medved on this one. I think the BRIC miracle was possible due to the unbalanced financial flows produced by the globalization. IMHO opinion only Brasil may be in a better situation due to the fact is on the list of Fed's favourites (got currency swaps and pretty good support from the Fed).

China is toast because their currency manipulation scheme is unraveling.
Russia is deleveraging its oligarchs and all wealth accumulated during the boom years is sucked back to the west. I think a month ago Russia announced they will start soon borrowing from the west again.
India already suffers from a reduced money inflow from the west although, to my knowledge it is not a big deal yet.

In my opinion. If the west is to have growth through money printing, or QE, with government bonds that is in a bear market. Then, there will be a bull-market in emerging market's. The strength in emerging market's since 2003 is just a reflection of the weaker dollar. As long as we have currency debasement, or weak currencies, they will have a bull-market. Stocks like railroad stocks, buffet's pick, is just a mirror of the sensex in india. I think the PBR and Potash of George Soros is even just a stronger play on the trend.

I don't think China is blowing up. I think they are on the path for a V shaped recovery. While the US will have a more sluggish recovery. The way things go, I think investors will throw money after anyone that have growth, and for china's part that means they can print like crazy to get growth, like a sexy prom queen, and then attract the money that will hold it all together, just like japan in the seventies. In a way it's a one way ticket with no turning back, but I think China will pull it off.