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Fools Gold: Genesis of the Debt Disaster

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  • Fools Gold: Genesis of the Debt Disaster

    Excerpt from Financial Times' assistant editor Gillian Tett's new book:


    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/51f425ac-3...44feabdc0.html
    The first sign that there might be a structural problem with the innovative bundles of credit derivatives that bankers at JP Morgan had dreamed up emerged in the second half of 1998. In the preceding months, Blythe Masters and Bill Demchak – key members of JP Morgan’s credit derivatives team – had been pestering financial regulators. They believed that by using the new credit derivative products they had helped create, JP Morgan could better manage the risks in its portfolio of loans to companies, and thereby reduce the amount of capital it needed to put aside to cover possible defaults. The question was by how much. (Though these bundles of credit derivatives later went under other names, such as collateralised debt obligations [CDOs], at that time these pioneering structures were known as “Bistro” deals, short for Broad Index Secured Trust Offering). Masters and Demchak had done the first couple of Bistro deals on behalf of their own bank without knowing the answer to their question for sure. But when they were doing these deals for other banks, the question of reserve capital became more important – the others were mainly interested in cutting their reserve requirements.


    The regulators weren’t sure. When officials at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Federal Reserve had first heard about credit derivatives and CDOs, they had warmed to the idea that banks were trying to manage their risk. But they were also uneasy because the new derivatives didn’t fit neatly under any existing regulations. And they were particularly uncertain over what to make of the unusually low level of capital available to cover losses on the derivatives.



    ...more at the link


    Old news, of course, to iTulipers. But I do find it interesting that no one ever suggests that this is the end result of a culture based on the "pecuniary motive" as it C. Wright Mills put it. Every one keeps dancing around, pretending we are experiencing an aberration.




  • #2
    Re: Fools Gold: Genesis of the Debt Disaster

    Great stuff. I love Gillian Tett.

    It's always kind of surprised me that Soros's idea of reflexivity has not been recognised as a key concept in understanding the crisis. The point is this: if everyone assumes that their actions do not effect the market (the thing measured) and act on that then the effect on the market will become pronounced, even to the point of making a wildly unlikely scenario a near certainty. If everyone takes at face value the premise that housing has never gone down in aggregate since the depression and acts on that premise the guaranteed outcome is that housing will crash after being pushed to unsustainable levels. (Another example - where the insanity is even more pronounced - was portfolio insurance in the late 80s.)

    The point is latent in a lot of analysis and its latent in any unquestioning use of historical market data. Just think its strange that no-one seems to make the problem explicit.

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