Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

[EJ]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

Could you please elaborate on this? Why diesel and not gasoline? I thought petro-diesel burned dirtier than most anything. I know I breathed a lot of it living in London.

Jimmy

Lukester is correct. Diesel is a more complex set of hydrocarbons with a higher energy density than gasoline by volume. It burns dirtier but anti-pollution technology has caught up. New diesel BMW models are already on the market in California and other states with stringent air pollution laws. Every major auto manufacturer plans to have new diesel models available in 2010, at least those that are still in business. These cars will average 50MPG. By 2012 we'll see diesel hybrids that will average 75MPG. Smaller cars will acheive 100MPG plus.

[phirang]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

Lukester is correct. Diesel is a more complex set of hydrocarbons with a higher energy density than gasoline by volume. It burns dirtier but anti-pollution technology has caught up. New diesel BMW models are already on the market in California and other states with stringent air pollution laws. Every major auto manufacturer plans to have new diesel models available in 2010, at least those that are still in business. These cars will average 50MPG. By 2012 we'll see diesel hybrids that will average 75MPG. Smaller cars will acheive 100MPG plus.

Go long urea!

[stockman]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

how would refiners fit in energy's future?

hoc.png

[phirang]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

how would refiners fit in energy's future?

[ATTACH]1528[/ATTACH]

Heavy oil refiners should do well.

[bill]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

Heavy oil refiners should do well.

with ethanol blend
http://www.reuters.com/article/innov...52H6LT20090318

Wed Mar 18, 2009 3:25pm EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil refiner Valero Energy (VLO.N) beat out Archer Daniels Midland (ADM.N) in buying bankrupt VeraSun Energy Corp's VSUNQ.OB ethanol plants because ADM was only interested in buying the entire company, a lawyer for VeraSun said on Wednesday.
VeraSun announced on Tuesday that Valero, the largest U.S. oil refiner, had won an auction to buy seven of its ethanol plants while three VeraSun creditors would buy the rest of its plants for a total of about $1.05 billion, topping ADM's bid of $700 million

[flintlock]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

Jimmygu3 - you can synthesize diesel from multiple carbon feedstocks, and it has .25% or better mileage yield than gasoline. Standardize car and machine fleets on diesel and you free up the world's massive coal resources to be refined into diesel as well. Then there are the hybrid engines - diesel hybrids on the drawing board in Europe already achieve 80 MPG and probably can yield more than that if they become the object of concentrated development.

I read that diesel was the fuel of the future from Stephen Leeb, back in 2005, when he parsed all these same points out (Stephen Leeb is a bit obsessed with Peak Oil but a very astute cookie in his own right). EJ is spot on. Diesel, and diesel hybrids is what it is gonna be! I've got the "future dinosaur prototype" vehicle today in this category, the little 1.9 liter turbodiesel from VW. 48 MPG on the freeway doing 80 MPH all day long, and that's on a 2003 car.

When they slap a hybrid drive alongside a little diesel like that, these motors notionally can yield 125-150 MPG. What's not to like? They've got the emissions issue firmly battened down now (VW and I think Daimler-Benz and also FIAT!). In Europe the small CC diesel engines are everywhere. I think I recall reading they are already 40% + of the existing car fleets in some high tax countries (Italy).

FIAT have a lot of expertise in these small diesel engines (15-20 years expanding this specific segment in the EU), packaged into attractive smaller town cars with a little sporty (it's understood, that's "small car" sporty) zing. If they get active in their role as a new Chrysler partner, we could start seeing those Eurostyle turbodiesels all over the US markets as soon as oil's price starts to percolate again. Turbodiesels are a lot of fun to drive also, which does not hurt the theme.

Thanks for that excellent and informing post Lukester. Combined with EJs statement on diesel, that gives me a real heads up on where things may be going.

I love those turbo diesels too. I remember my parents buying an AUDI 5000 TD back in the 80s. People thought they were crazy. I guess they were when you consider the terrible resale on that car when they sold it. Before its time I guess.

[flintlock]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

how would refiners fit in energy's future?

[ATTACH]1528[/ATTACH]

So is HOC heavy into refining diesel? I've noticed the premium folks are paying for diesel over gas these days. Seems to me diesel refining needs to step up before diesel cars become the norm.

[stockman]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

Others here more knowledgable than I on fundies. I posted HOC as an example of the group only... and I favor smaller caps generally. My understaning was that VLO MRO investing in expaded diesel capacity. I own most of the group - based more on techicals.

[Guest]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

Thanks for the input Stockman. Lots of very interesting comments from you here.

You might look at the energy ETFs- some focus on alternative or clean energy. That would make it easy to track a basket, then for individual names you could review the holdings to select those that fit your preference.

Here are a few (this is a good ETF filter/search site)

PBW GEX TAN ICLN PUW NUCL NLR PBD PKN KWT

http://www.xtf.com/research/index.aspx


If you like break out / trend positioning the best charts short term are those in the nuke category- NUCL, NLR, PKN

[santafe2]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

So is HOC heavy into refining diesel? I've noticed the premium folks are paying for diesel over gas these days. Seems to me diesel refining needs to step up before diesel cars become the norm.

There certainly are people on iTulip that can speak to this issue with some authority. I had heard, (maybe on iTuliip), that last summer Euroland was exporting refined gasoline to the US because they didn't need all the gasoline they were producing. I got the idea, maybe incorrectly, that a barrel of oil is used to produce both gasoline and diesel from different hydrocarbon chains.

As you point out, people are already paying a premium for diesel so might this not be a problem if we produce 10-20X additional diesel vehicles? I won't go on because my premise may be incorrect but I'd like understand this more clearly.

[flintlock]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

I'm not up on this stuff either, but I suspect if the US government decides Diesel is in our future, they will find a way to make it happen. Subsidies, tax laws, etc.

[Guest]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

Flintlock - Here's an eye opener on how far the US has come - it may not be entirely up to the US government, to decide whether the introduction of diesels will go ahead or not. You've got one European automaker now entering the US markets in a big way. BTW - FIAT's Alfa Romeo brand is hot, hot hot. These are very cool sporty cars to drive, with a lot of heart under the hood. What this article says is that FIAT is not planning to "redesign" or otherwise water down this brand, and that Chrysler will go straight into production of Alfa Romeo designs introducing them directly into the US market.

American car buyers are not accustomed to domestic car makers producing cars that are designed with that European BMW-style design flair - but believe it or not, Italy, with designers like PININFARINA and BERTONE having a long tradition in their car culture, do industrial design flair even better than Germany. They can do some very hot styling, and the Alfa Romeo engines and chassis are some of the sportiest average consumer designs in that country. I predict Chrysler is going to come roaring back with this infusion of flair from a European car maker founded in the 1930's.

The Alfa Romeo is not a wishy-washy brand, and never has been. It has had *sporty* written all over it since the 1950's. Lots of fun to drive these cars, and their engines have a special performance "heart" that wins a lot of devoted fans. Chrysler may become a real surprise comeback out of this alliance. Just like BMW make engines which thrive on getting thrashed at really high revs, the Alfa Romeo has the same tradition.

I'm not up on this stuff either, but I suspect if the US government decides Diesel is in our future, they will find a way to make it happen. Subsidies, tax laws, etc.

Marchionne’s Chrysler to Make Cars in U.S. Based on Alfa Model


By Mike Ramsey


May 8 (Bloomberg) -- Chrysler LLC, as part of its alliance with Fiat SpA, plans to build new cars in the U.S. based on the engineering of an Alfa Romeo luxury car being developed in Europe.

Chrysler, seeking a sale of most of its assets through bankruptcy to a company controlled by Fiat, reached agreement with the Turin, Italy-based automaker to use the platform of the Alfa Romeo 149 in the U.S., according to court filings.

Sergio Marchionne’s vision as the new CEO of Chrysler includes building many cars off of existing platforms to reduce costs. He has said a successful carmaker needs to sell at least 5.5 million vehicles a year globally to survive. Marchionne said in a May 6 interview that he wants to add General Motors Corp.’s brands Opel, Vauxhall and Saab to reach the target.

“It means that they will increase their profitability per vehicle, but just because you’ve got a good base below doesn’t mean anything if you don’t execute above,” said Wes Brown an automotive analyst at Iceology in Los Angeles. “Putting a Chrysler badge on something hot doesn’t mean people will come in the door and buy it.”

In the May 5 interview, Marchionne said he plans to become Chrysler’s CEO and to sell the Fiat 500 minicar in the U.S. by the end of next year. In this case, Chrysler said it will use the so-called C-EVO platform, which includes driveline, axles, electrical system and essentially all the parts that are covered by the skin and interiors of the vehicle.

‘Gorgeous Car’

Chrysler’s best option might be to make few changes to existing Fiat vehicles, preserving their “excellent” designs, Brown said. The C-EVO platform, which is new, will be the basis of the luxury Alfa Romeo 149, which is expected to go on sale in Europe within the next year. It is the successor to the Alfa 147 and about the same size as a Dodge Caliber.

“It’s a gorgeous car,” Mike Robinet, an automotive analyst at CSM Worldwide Inc. in Northville, Michigan, said of the 147. “It’s one of the best-looking hatchbacks in the entire European market.” It would cost a company from $1 billion to $2 billion to develop on its own an all-new platform similar to the C-EVO, he said. And it costs from $300 million to $600 million to install the equipment in a plant to build a new platform, Robinet said.

Brand Undecided

The court filing, which notes the arrangement under an affidavit from former President Tom LaSorda, doesn’t say which plant will make the car or whether it would be an Alfa, a Chrysler or another brand.

The new company, which seeks to purchase the bulk of Chrysler’s assets for $2 billion by the end of the month, would take only one U.S. plant that makes cars now. Chrysler’s Belvidere, Illinois, assembly plant makes the Caliber, Jeep Patriot and Jeep Compass, which are among the smallest vehicles the Auburn Hills, Michigan-based company currently makes.

Shawn Morgan, a Chrysler spokeswoman, declined to comment for the story. Tom Johnson, a U.S. spokesman for Fiat, declined to immediately comment.
Chrysler’s agreement with Fiat includes four platforms and two engine and transmission combinations, according to the bankruptcy filing. Chrysler values the technology at $8 billion to $10 billion.

The company is considering making a Fiat engine at a plant in Dundee, Michigan, that is jointly owned with Mitsubishi Motors Corp. and Hyundai Motor Co. that has unused capacity, Scott Garberding, the purchasing chief for Chrysler, said in court testimony.

Chrysler would get access to Fiat’s 3-liter diesel engine and 1.4-liter gasoline engine, important elements for the automaker to meet future fuel-economy regulations, according to LaSorda’s statement. Chrysler said in LaSorda’s affidavit the 500 platform is among the four cars it would use in the U.S. It hasn’t said where it would be built.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mike Ramsey in Southfield, Michigan, at mramsey6@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: May 8, 2009 00:01 EDT

CHRYSLER - WILL BE BUILDING CARS LIKE THIS ?? :eek: :eek: :eek: ARGUABLY THE SINGLE BEST THING THAT EVER HAPPENED TO CHRYSLER, AND IT TOOK A BANKRUPTCY TO DO IT.

Alfa Romeo 159 1750 TBi - Top speed of 235 km/h and accelerates it from 0 to 100 km/h in just 7.7 seconds. [ THIS IS OUT OF A 1.75 LITER ENGINE - TINY, BY AMERICAN STANDARDS - APPROX. SAME SIZE ENGINE AS A FORD ESCORT! ]

Alfa Romeo 159 1750 TBi

31 Mar 2009

Alfa Romeo 159 1750 TBi 31 Mar 2009

Alfa Romeo 147 Murphy and Nye launched 08 Jun 2007

80 years of racing history behind this brand.

[vanvaley1]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

I don't know Lukester. Some cars have the limp look in the front and constipated look in the rear. I'm waiting for the fins and those pointed light, bumper, and hood ornaments to come back. I want that flying and excited look when I drive my car. Just haven't figured out how I can managed that with a 97 Corolla remake cuz I'll not give up this reliable, efficient, and inexpensive little gem. I've had people ask me to sell it to em. Found a note under the windshield wiper just the other day asking if I'd like to sell it. Seems I did something right in 1997.

[flintlock]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

Looks expensive. Is that really what will sell big in a depression? Or will boring cars be the norm?

I think a little Italian styling would do a lot of car makers some good, including Toyota and Honda.

[Guest]

Re: Janszen Interview on NPR on 05/01/2009 - Power Hungry...Energy Green Bubble?

Alfa Romeo's entry level and mid level cars were not hugely more expensive than the standard Ford Escort type economy car in the 1990's when I was living in Europe. The larger sedans are very powerful cars on the road. The police and government use them as limousines, roughly equivalent to the beefed up Ford Crown Victoria police cruisers and government limos. Frankly in a car chase (not that I ever do anything like that) I'd put my money on the four liter Alfa over the Crown Victoria any day. Of course both would be chasing each other at speeds entirely unhealthy to human survival.

When you are buying a big ticket item, as in buying a house, you don't care whether it's rainy or sunny out while you are viewing it. You are looking at the bones of the house, and want to buy the most house you can for the money. Because that's with a 10 or 30 year time horizon of use in mind. I understand, in today's climate of new found Calvinism in America, any car that looks this sinfully flamboyant is a symbol of America's own most egregious excess of recent years, therefore on an "iconic" level, looks completely unpalatable.

In 2010, the neighbors would most certainly begin to look at us disdainfully if they saw us driving around in one of these as opposed to a car that looked a little more appropriately homespun - those Ford Tauruses (midsize family sedan price bracket) from the 1990's come to mind, that looked vaguely like a suppository, mobilized onto four wheels? With design like that, Americans were doing Ford an undue favor even buying those flying boats.

Same principle for big ticket purchases applies, as does when buying a home: just because the economic backdrop is crap, does not (or certainly should not) induce us to buy a hovel for a home just because it is "more modest". In terms of value for dollar, it should induce us to buy the dilapidated mansion instead, if it's priced right. Granted, that's an awkward and maybe even inappropriate analogy.

But it also depends in part on how "bleakly homespun" people insist upon feeling 2-3 years from now. I fully understand many people here think we are going to stay in a bleak, gaunt, no-spend economic depression as far out as the eye can see. At some point within 1-2 years (if not now) we should see an modest ecomic recovery of some sort. We must wait and see how many Americans don't at least blink a couple of times, when they look at the new cars coming off Chrysler's assembly lines.

There are plenty of other smaller industrialised countries in the world that don't have a domestic carmaker of note and are completely "colonized" by foreign car brands. Here in America, we consider it a personal affront to have a foreign carmaker own a piece of one our big three. We're thinking: Ew! Gimcrack foreigners trying to take us over! But other nations put up with it as a matter of course. The USA should suck it up too, and be glad there's a buyer there with a decently marketable car line of it's own to put those Chrysler people back to work with renewed purpose.

Perhaps more to the point: American car fleets will have to downsize in the next decade. For US carmakers who've specialized in hulking trucks for 15 years to shift their design focus requires lots and lots of cash. What none of the big three have. Fiat has dozens of small car solutions from the EU (and world) markets, that are pedigreed from 25-30 years of optimizing small car design. Bingo - vastly less costly resolution to America's future small vehicle segment of the markets. Alfa Romeo also certainly has 3-5 liter models in their line ups.

Introduce cars like the ALFA sedan lines (mid range sedan models priced like Ford Tauruses) into the US and you have no costly re-engineering to do - while without this grafting in of new car lines, America's auto giants must scratch their heads and ponder the novel task of how to make small cars attractive and with a modest bit of sparkle in their performance.

All other insights failing - at least this take over beats breaking Chrysler up into small pieces and selling them off piecemeal. "Live to fight another day" and all that. They could have done plenty worse than getting Alfa Romeos into the Chrysler line-up.