ECRI says "an end the US recession is now in clear sight"

[santafe2]

Oh Happy Days...or maybe they've just got very good vision.

Gauge of future US economic growth at 13-wk high-ECRI


NEW YORK, May 1 (Reuters) - A weekly measure of U.S. future economic growth rose along with its annualized growth rate, indicating imminent economic recovery, a research group said on Friday. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index ticked up to a 13-week high of 107.7 for the week ending April 24 from 107.2 in the previous week. The index's annualized growth rate also climbed to minus 17.4 percent from the prior week's rate of minus 18.6 percent. "With the level of the WLI in an upswing for seven weeks now, an end to the U.S. recession is now in clear sight," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI. The index level rose because of lower interest rates and higher commodity prices and was partly offset by lower stock prices, Achuthan said.

[Fiat Currency]

Re: ECRI says "an end the US recession is now in clear sight"

Oh Happy Days...or maybe they've just got very good vision.

Or maybe they have these on !!

[santafe2]

Re: ECRI says "an end the US recession is now in clear sight"

Or maybe they have these on !!

Hum...those blinders appear to allow for forward vision...that may be it. There's nothing on the periphery and nothing behind us to worry about.

I find ECRI numbers very useful but what I found so surprising is the rosy outlook given that their own numbers say our economic activity is still down 25% from the 143.7 peak ECRI reported in June 2007.

I suppose one could parse this sentence in a way to mean that yes the recession is over - that is - the economy is no longer moving down. But the depression remains - we still have an economy running at about 75% the level it was 2 years ago.

We'll still have to keep firing people and raising unemployment to bring our recession is over economy in line with out depression is not over economy.

It's good to know that the end is near...:confused:

[metalman]

Re: ECRI says "an end the US recession is now in clear sight"

Hum...those blinders appear to allow for forward vision...that may be it. There's nothing on the periphery and nothing behind us to worry about.

I find ECRI numbers very useful but what I found so surprising is the rosy outlook given that their own numbers say our economic activity is still down 25% from the 143.7 peak ECRI reported in June 2007.

I suppose one could parse this sentence in a way to mean that yes the recession is over - that is - the economy is no longer moving down. But the depression remains - we still have an economy running at about 75% the level it was 2 years ago.

We'll still have to keep firing people and raising unemployment to bring our recession is over economy in line with out depression is not over economy.

It's good to know that the end is near...:confused:

ecri has a stellar record...:cool:

[nero3]

Re: ECRI says "an end the US recession is now in clear sight"

In a sense, the sentiment should be like this, on a forum like this, after a bottom have been reached. In that sense, everything is like it should be. The sentiment on tops, are just inverse of the sentiment on lows. In the low, the bear won't see the writing on the wall. On the top, the bull won't see it. It's always like this.

I think the market is ready for a correction, but not a change in trend (that is up)

[BiscayneSunrise]

Re: ECRI says "an end the US recession is now in clear sight"

good point about psychology nero.

We know the iTulip mass psyche was excellent at expecting and calling the top.

We will see if we are as good at calling the bottom.

[nero3]

Re: ECRI says "an end the US recession is now in clear sight"

good point about psychology nero.

We know the iTulip mass psyche was excellent at expecting and calling the top.

We will see if we are as good at calling the bottom.

I think the odds are it have been reached ,so I don't think there will be any success on that part. I noticed Warren Buffet's comments on his shareholder meeting. That could shake the market's a little next week. That he is not really sure that this is not like 1930-31, with the recent stream of good news just being a fake bounce, that's how I interprets his comments.

One important thing. Is that most bears, predicted earnings to surprise on the downside, with claiming analysts were hopelessly optimistic. That was the tune from guys like Albert Edwards. It's clear that he was wrong. Analysts were to pessimistic, not to optimistic.