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U.S. Treasuries (Fail to Deliver)?

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  • U.S. Treasuries (Fail to Deliver)?

    Jim Willie cites an interesting post from "market skeptics" concerning U.S. Treasuries and their "Fails to Deliver" problem that I haven't seen addressed anywhere. Does anyone have any insight on this issue and what it means if true?

    "
    RAMPANT USTREASURY FRAUD
    Outright counterfeit of USTBonds is the likely province of JPMorgan. Its evidence probably vanished with that of Enron fraud when a certain building was demolished in the Big Apple on an important date known by two numbers that bracket the number 10. Naked shorting is more crafty and devious, but no less counterfeit. The details of naked shorting of USTreasury Bonds are very ugly, and surprisingly broad based. This is supposedly the most liquid and transparent market in the world. NOT SO!!! Market Skeptics (cited with links above) provides some excellent insight on the totally illegal practice and its clear consequences. They wrote,

    “Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September, fails to deliver among the 17 primary dealers in the US treasury market have rocketed to more than $2 trillion over a period of weeks and still lie above $1.3 trillion. Broker/dealers have stopped delivering bonds. Holders of US treasuries are now scared to lend into the repo market in case their bonds are not returned, and potential buyers sit on the sidelines fearful of handing over their money to a counterparty that at best might not deliver a bond on time, and at worst might go under… If investors turn their back on treasuries, the US government will find it increasingly difficult and expensive to raise money and roll over its maturing debts. Upward pressure on interest rates will occur at a time when the government needs to be loosening monetary policy in order to jump-start a domestic economy that is heading towards a depression. As a result of fails to deliver, the most transparently priced instrument available now has investors scratching their heads. The natural balance of supply and demand has been altered and the true price of treasuries has become obscured… Fails to deliver in the treasury markets are not a new phenomenon. There is data for fails for treasuries, agencies and mortgage backed securities as far back as 1990, says Susanne Trimbath, an economist, and former employee of the Depository Trust Co, a subsidiary of Depository Trust and Clearing Corp. Back then, though, there would be $50 billion of fails in a whole year, she says. That figure has grown enormously. Failures in US treasuries were 8.6% of all treasuries outstanding in the first five months of this year, compared with 1.2% in the first five months of 2007. That has ballooned further over the past three months, hitting more than $2 trillion for almost the entire month of October, more than 20% of the daily treasuries trading volume.”

    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1241103600.php

  • #2
    Re: U.S. Treasuries (Fail to Deliver)?

    On April 20th, the SEC passed a new rule supposedly with the intent of handling this issue. Locating this easy, but deciphering it flies above my head, so hopefully some others will comment.

    http://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/ficc/2009/34-59802.pdf

    The Treasury Markets Practices Group (“TMPG”), a group of market participants that is active in the treasury securities market and is sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (“FRBNY”), has been devising ways to address the persistent settlement fails in treasury securities transactions that have arisen, according to the TMPG, due to the recent market turbulence and low short-term interest rates. In order to encourage market participants to resolve fails promptly, the TMPG has proposed for adoption a “best practice” that would call for the market-wide assessment of a charge on fail-to-deliver positions. As part of the implementation of this “best practice,” the TMPG has asked the Government Securities Division (“GSD”) of FICC to impose a charge on failed positions involving treasury securities within FICC.

    The charge FICC is adopting will be equal to the product of net money due on the failed position and three (3) percent per annum minus the Target Fed funds target rate that is effective at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time on the business day prior to the originally scheduled settlement date and will be capped at three (3) percent per annum. The charge will be applied daily and will be a debit on a member’s GSD monthly bill for a fail-to deliver position and a credit on a member’s GSD monthly bill for fail-to-receive position. The following example illustrates the manner in which the proposed fails charge would apply...

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    • #3
      Re: U.S. Treasuries (Fail to Deliver)?

      This is all a red herring. There is nothing nefarious about the failed to deliver problem in USTs. As rates got close to zero there was no incentive to deliver because fail rates are zero also. That is why starting 5/1 the fail rate is being moved to a max of -3%. That should solve most of the fail problems going forward.

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