Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Charlie Cook: President Obama will struggle to win reelection if his approval rating doesn’t rise.

As each month goes by, the rating becomes a better indicator of the eventual results. Presidents with approval numbers above 48 to 50 percent in the Gallup Poll win reelection. Those with approval ratings below that level usually lose. If voters don’t approve of the job you are doing after four years in office, they usually don’t vote for you. Of course, a candidate can win the popular vote and still lose the Electoral College. It happened to Samuel Tilden in 1876, Grover Cleveland in 1888, and Al Gore in 2000. But the popular votes and the Electoral College numbers usually come down on the same side.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

anyone watch the debate last night? Perry was hilarious.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GSmDsAET7I

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1111/68048.html
Romney rivals continue to implode


ROCHESTER, Mich. – Rick Perry is reeling after a debate gaffe for the ages. Herman Cain is fighting off allegations of sexual impropriety. The rest of Mitt Romney’s would-be rivals are either broke, deeply flawed or both.


It’s viewed as a foregone conclusion that somebody will emerge from the GOP field to challenge Mitt Romney for the 2012 presidential nomination. But as of now, less than two months before the first votes are cast in Iowa, it’s still uncertain who will give Romney a real primary fight.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

This group went from being hilarious, to being embarrassing. I don't think Perry's money can save him now. On to the next "not-Romney". I think Newt gets a shot now. I wouldn't count Newt out. He's got the experience to not say the really crazy stuff, he can win Tea Party support and the 1%ers.

He's also very good at manipulation. Just yesterday he proposed reestablishing Glass-Steagall, but at the same time, abolishing Dodd-Frank. Abolishing Dodd-Frank would be a big help to the big banks, while reestablishing Glass-Steagall, would make a minor difference.

So this month I'll go with Newt.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I think that's a good prediction. Newt's number have gone up a little bit lately. He'll see another bump.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I think that's a good prediction. Newt's number have gone up a little bit lately. He'll see another bump.

Newt is making his move down the backstretch.

A new Iowa poll:

The survey, taken by Kellyanne Conway's Polling Company for private clients, included hard support (definitely backing a candidate), moderately hard support (probably backing a candidate) and leaners.

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Including all three categories, Cain leads the field with 20 percent, but is in a statistical dead heat with Gingrich, who gets 19 percent. Romney gets 14 percent.

[Prazak]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Newt is making his move down the backstretch.

That's what his third wife said to his second.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Cain had his 'Perry Moment' last night.

http://rt.com/usa/news/herman-cain-libya-president-423/

It is around another 14 seconds before Cain told reporters, “I got all this stuff twirling around in my head.”



That was a fun ride, Mr. Cain!

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Nate Silver on handicapping 2012: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/06/ma...tion.html?_r=1

I only wish he had run a scenario with 2% GDP.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

it's crazy how fluid the GOP field has been. Totally unpredictable. It's mirroring 2007-2008 in one way though, with Romney now looking like Giuliani and Gingrich playing the McCain role. Rudy G. was the frontrunner right up until the beginning of December 2007 when his poll numbers started to collapse. And McCain had been at around 10-15% before surging to the nomination.

Gingrich with big leads in polls coming out of Iowa, SC, FL, CO, NC, LA, MT...Newt freakin' Gingrich

The question is, does the open the door for Jon Huntsman and his anti TBTF stance as the anti-Newt? It ain't over until it's over.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

The question is, does the open the door for Jon Huntsman and his anti TBTF stance as the anti-Newt?

The answer is NO. Huntsman is far too sane to get anywhere with the people who will be voting in the caucuses and primaries.

Everybody and his brother will now be hitting Newt with his past. But the same people who would prevent Huntsman from getting the nomination will be quick to forgive Newt for past sins that would easily knock anyone out of the race. Romney has to be very worried, and Obama has to be very happy.

Obama gave a very important speech yesterday. I think it set the tone for his campaign. An incumbent president has a big microphone and the power to do some things that will turn a lot of voters. All it will take is some talk about investigations of banksters, or an indictment or two, and an Obama VS Gingrich race wont be much of a race at all.

[charliebrown]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

hmm ...maybe we should start a poll on who the most expendable bankster is.

[don]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

In Major Gaffe, Obama Forgets To Dumb It Down

CINCINNATI—In a serious miscalculation that may prove devastating to his bid for a second term, President Barack Obama neglected Tuesday to simplify a statement to the point where it could readily be grasped by anyone with the vocabulary of an 8-year-old. "Instead of saying, 'There are many global variables at work here, and unless they all fall into place, we could find ourselves back in a recession,' he should have just said, 'Times are hard. We gotta be strong,'" said Washington Post political correspondent Brian Meltzer, noting that Obama's statement during a speech on job creation was met with dumbfounded looks and audible gasps from the crowd.

"Americans are so used to meaningless homespun homilies, they don't know what to do when they're treated like thinking adults. The president has to understand that if he goes out there throwing around words like 'currency' and 'economy,' he'll end up being branded an elitist."

In an attempt to correct the error, Obama concluded his speech with the words "Jobs good. No jobs bad. God bless America."

Courtesy of the Onion

[swgprop]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

In Major Gaffe, Obama Forgets To Dumb It Down

Sometimes the line between parody and reality is blurred.

[don]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Sometimes the line between parody and reality is blurred.

Parody well done should do that

[astonas]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

hmm ...maybe we should start a poll on who the most expendable bankster is.

That has to be Corzine. He made the mistake of getting caught, and thereby increased the risk of investigation for all bankers and politicians. There is no banker that doesn't secretly hope that this whole line of questioning might go away if Corzine is thrown to the wolves. Politicians, even those owned by wall street, will trip over themselves to crucify the guy, so they have political cover for not making real changes. The bankers will understand the difference between show and substance, and forgive.