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Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

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  • #61
    Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

    I know that Sarah Palin is not even officially in the race, but this is an interesting opinion piece in the NY Times.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/10/us...&smid=fb-share
    Some of Sarah Palin's Ideas Cross the Political Divide

    By ANAND GIRIDHARADAS

    Published: September 9, 2011



    CAMBRIDGE, MASSACHUSETTS — Let us begin by confessing that, if Sarah Palin surfaced to say something intelligent and wise and fresh about the present American condition, many of us would fail to hear it.
    That is not how we’re primed to see Ms. Palin. A pugnacious Tea Partyer? Sure. A woman of the people? Yup. A Mama Grizzly? You betcha.
    But something curious happened when Ms. Palin strode onto the stage last weekend at a Tea Party event in Indianola, Iowa. Along with her familiar and predictable swipes at President Barack Obama and the “far left,” she delivered a devastating indictment of the entire U.S. political establishment — left, right and center — and pointed toward a way of transcending the presently unbridgeable political divide.
    The next day, the “lamestream” media, as she calls it, played into her fantasy of it by ignoring the ideas she unfurled and dwelling almost entirely on the will-she-won’t-she question of her presidential ambitions.
    So here is something I never thought I would write: a column about Sarah Palin’s ideas.
    There was plenty of the usual Palin schtick — words that make clear that she is not speaking to everyone but to a particular strain of American: “The working men and women of this country, you got up off your couch, you came down from the deer stand, you came out of the duck blind, you got off the John Deere, and we took to the streets, and we took to the town halls, and we ended up at the ballot box.”
    But when her throat was cleared at last, Ms. Palin had something considerably more substantive to say.
    She made three interlocking points. First, that the United States is now governed by a “permanent political class,” drawn from both parties, that is increasingly cut off from the concerns of regular people. Second, that these Republicans and Democrats have allied with big business to mutual advantage to create what she called “corporate crony capitalism.” Third, that the real political divide in the United States may no longer be between friends and foes of Big Government, but between friends and foes of vast, remote, unaccountable institutions (both public and private).
    In supporting her first point, about the permanent political class, she attacked both parties’ tendency to talk of spending cuts while spending more and more; to stoke public anxiety about a credit downgrade, but take a vacation anyway; to arrive in Washington of modest means and then somehow ride the gravy train to fabulous wealth. She observed that 7 of the 10 wealthiest counties in the United States happen to be suburbs of the nation’s capital.
    Her second point, about money in politics, helped to explain the first. The permanent class stays in power because it positions itself between two deep troughs: the money spent by the government and the money spent by big companies to secure decisions from government that help them make more money.
    “Do you want to know why nothing ever really gets done?” she said, referring to politicians. “It’s because there’s nothing in it for them. They’ve got a lot of mouths to feed — a lot of corporate lobbyists and a lot of special interests that are counting on them to keep the good times and the money rolling along.”
    Because her party has agitated for the wholesale deregulation of money in politics and the unshackling of lobbyists, these will be heard in some quarters as sacrilegious words.
    Ms. Palin’s third point was more striking still: in contrast to the sweeping paeans to capitalism and the free market delivered by the Republican presidential candidates whose ranks she has yet to join, she sought to make a distinction between good capitalists and bad ones. The good ones, in her telling, are those small businesses that take risks and sink and swim in the churning market; the bad ones are well-connected megacorporations that live off bailouts, dodge taxes and profit terrifically while creating no jobs.
    Strangely, she was saying things that liberals might like, if not for Ms. Palin’s having said them.
    “This is not the capitalism of free men and free markets, of innovation and hard work and ethics, of sacrifice and of risk,” she said of the crony variety. She added: “It’s the collusion of big government and big business and big finance to the detriment of all the rest — to the little guys. It’s a slap in the face to our small business owners — the true entrepreneurs, the job creators accounting for 70 percent of the jobs in America.”
    Is there a hint of a political breakthrough hiding in there?
    The political conversation in the United States is paralyzed by a simplistic division of labor. Democrats protect that portion of human flourishing that is threatened by big money and enhanced by government action. Republicans protect that portion of human flourishing that is threatened by big government and enhanced by the free market.
    What is seldom said is that human flourishing is a complex and delicate thing, and that we needn’t choose whether government or the market jeopardizes it more, because both can threaten it at the same time.
    Ms. Palin may be hinting at a new political alignment that would pit a vigorous localism against a kind of national-global institutionalism.
    On one side would be those Americans who believe in the power of vast, well-developed institutions like Goldman Sachs, the Teamsters Union, General Electric, Google and the U.S. Department of Education to make the world better. On the other side would be people who believe that power, whether public or private, becomes corrupt and unresponsive the more remote and more anonymous it becomes; they would press to live in self-contained, self-governing enclaves that bear the burden of their own prosperity.
    No one knows yet whether Ms. Palin will actually run for president. But she did just get more interesting.

    Comment


    • #62
      Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

      thanks for post that, jb. i never thought i'd be in agreement with much that palin could say, but there it is. can't help but wonder how it happened. and it's hard to believe that it's her independent analysis, in spite of the newspapers that she reads ["all of them"].

      Comment


      • #63
        Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

        Originally posted by jk View Post
        thanks for post that, jb. i never thought i'd be in agreement with much that palin could say, but there it is. can't help but wonder how it happened. and it's hard to believe that it's her independent analysis, in spite of the newspapers that she reads ["all of them"].
        It caught me by surprise also!

        Comment


        • #64
          Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

          Let me first say that I am not a Palin fan.

          However, whenever you see anyone as intensely attacked as Palin has been (and Ron Paul is), it does make you wonder what the substance is vs. the spin.

          Comment


          • #65
            Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

            That is certainly a very interesting piece on Palin. Maybe a few people will stop dismissing her outright because of it.

            Comment


            • #66
              Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

              Originally posted by babbittd View Post
              wow...the latest gallup poll:

              General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Obama 46, Romney 48 Romney +2
              General Election: Perry vs. Obama Gallup Obama 47, Perry 47 Tie
              General Election: Bachmann vs. Obama Gallup Obama 48, Bachmann 44 Obama +4
              General Election: Paul vs. Obama Gallup Obama 47, Paul 45 Obama +2
              General Election: Palin vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Palin 33 Obama +17

              Stock markets tanking take Obama's chances for re-election along with them...
              i am a little surprised at that poll. The ron paul part specifically!

              I think overall it will boil down to the economic conditions right before the election. Anyone think they will be the same a year from now? Not me. Obama is beatable, something I did'nt think possible last year. Only way i see Paul winning nomination is if things really go to hell between now and the Convention. Even then its doubtful. I think this becomes a two horse race soon, and Paul won't be one of them.

              Comment


              • #67
                Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

                Originally posted by jk View Post
                bachmann was always running for VICE-president.
                Exactly! And this time I think the VP choice will have more impact than usual. I agree it will be low turnout and the Republican who wants to win will have one of the current candidates as a runningmate. Namely either Bachman or Cain. I'd add Paul but that will never happen. But he would bring out the vote.

                It will be really interesting to see how many turn out to vote for Obama now that he has feet of clay. This has to be the biggest election in my lifetime. Do any of these people really have what it takes to lead us out of this mess? Is it even possible?
                Last edited by flintlock; September 12, 2011, 09:05 PM.

                Comment


                • #68
                  Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

                  Originally posted by flintlock View Post
                  Do any of these people really have what it takes to lead us out of this mess? Is it even possible?
                  unfortunately i think that the answer to both of these questions is "no." i suspect that the next president, either obama again or the republican, will only see things get worse, because the political system will conspire to keep anything significant from being done. then, maybe in 2016, we can get some real change, hopefully for the better.

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

                    Originally posted by jk View Post
                    unfortunately i think that the answer to both of these questions is "no." i suspect that the next president, either obama again or the republican, will only see things get worse, because the political system will conspire to keep anything significant from being done. then, maybe in 2016, we can get some real change, hopefully for the better.
                    +1

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

                      I don't think we should exclude the possibility that the Repub VP nominee could be someone who is not one of the current candidates running for the president position. It was just 4 years ago that they pulled Sarah Palin in from nowhere for that place....maybe they could find a more suitable governor for that role?

                      If the presidential nominee is Romney, then I think they'll go deep south, maybe with Jindal or a leading female politician OTHER than Bachmann or Palin.

                      Re: the Palin opinion piece - her views don't shock me at all. I don't think she's "presidential" material, and has that weakness of thinking she belongs playing at that level (intellectually). But her views are pretty consistent of an outsider saying it like it is, which is the story of her potlical career (until 2008). Whether or not one likes her views on religion, guns, "drillin'" etc have nothing to do with it.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

                        A follow up thought, too.

                        The biggest group that the 2012 nominees will need to pander to will be the baby boomers, particularly those who have lost their jobs and those who never had, lost, or stand to lose more of, their retirement savings.

                        So ultimately, I agree with the observations above, it's the economy, stupid. And I'm as far from a supporter as possible, but I'll say this, I'd never count Obama out. He can also "change" by naming a new VP nominee, such as, Hillary. It's all about winning, power, and control, and as we saw in 2008, the long followed rules of the game can be updated to ensure victory.

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

                          Originally posted by wayiwalk View Post
                          I don't think we should exclude the possibility that the Repub VP nominee could be someone who is not one of the current candidates running for the president position. It was just 4 years ago that they pulled Sarah Palin in from nowhere for that place....maybe they could find a more suitable governor for that role?

                          If the presidential nominee is Romney, then I think they'll go deep south, maybe with Jindal or a leading female politician OTHER than Bachmann or Palin.

                          I think Palin is poison and Bachmann too much like Palin to ever get picked for VP. I think you're spot on that they need a real conservative to keep the Tea Party interested, but the South is a Lock for the Repubs, except for maybe Florida which is a must state, so maybe Scott. Since NO politician is very popular these days, picking a sitting Governor or Senator may be very difficult. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pick from someone who's on the sideline like Giuliani, or Huckabee, but in the end I think we see Perry/Romney. Neither one could refuse a VP offer and the party will be so torn up by the end of this process, it may be the only way to patch things up.

                          Re: the Palin opinion piece - her views don't shock me at all. I don't think she's "presidential" material, and has that weakness of thinking she belongs playing at that level (intellectually). But her views are pretty consistent of an outsider saying it like it is, which is the story of her potlical career (until 2008). Whether or not one likes her views on religion, guns, "drillin'" etc have nothing to do with it.
                          I wasn't at all impressed with the Palin piece. Every politician has to run as an "outsider" and this is pretty much what you would expect them to say. You have to run against those scoundrels on both sides of the Isle to show you're not one of them. Every poll shows "pox on both houses" will be the attitude of the electorate.

                          Last nights Tea Party debate was telling. They're not going to hold back from going after Perry. Romney knows this is his last shot, and Bachmann thinks she can still get a VP shot if she can keep her poll numbers reasonably high. But Bachmann also knows her best shot is with Romney since Perry can carry the TP vote.

                          I think turnout will be exceptionally low next year, but it may be from both sides. The Dem base is demoralized at Obama's refusal to fight for their causes, and the country club Repubs are scared to death that the Tea Party will send the country over the edge on a debt ceiling or budget fight.

                          One thing I'm sure of, it's a looooong way to the election and there will be events that we can't even anticipate that will have a major influence on the outcome of the race.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

                            Originally posted by we_are_toast View Post
                            I think Palin is poison and Bachmann too much like Palin to ever get picked for VP. I think you're spot on that they need a real conservative to keep the Tea Party interested, but the South is a Lock for the Repubs, except for maybe Florida which is a must state, so maybe Scott. Since NO politician is very popular these days, picking a sitting Governor or Senator may be very difficult. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pick from someone who's on the sideline like Giuliani, or Huckabee, but in the end I think we see Perry/Romney. Neither one could refuse a VP offer and the party will be so torn up by the end of this process, it may be the only way to patch things up.



                            I wasn't at all impressed with the Palin piece. Every politician has to run as an "outsider" and this is pretty much what you would expect them to say. You have to run against those scoundrels on both sides of the Isle to show you're not one of them. Every poll shows "pox on both houses" will be the attitude of the electorate.

                            Last nights Tea Party debate was telling. They're not going to hold back from going after Perry. Romney knows this is his last shot, and Bachmann thinks she can still get a VP shot if she can keep her poll numbers reasonably high. But Bachmann also knows her best shot is with Romney since Perry can carry the TP vote.

                            I think turnout will be exceptionally low next year, but it may be from both sides. The Dem base is demoralized at Obama's refusal to fight for their causes, and the country club Repubs are scared to death that the Tea Party will send the country over the edge on a debt ceiling or budget fight.

                            One thing I'm sure of, it's a looooong way to the election and there will be events that we can't even anticipate that will have a major influence on the outcome of the race.
                            Obama won NC last time so the south is not a lock for the republicans

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

                              I'm only thinking the need for someone from the south if Romney is the candidate. I don't think he comes across as very southern. He's from Michigan, was governor of Massachusetts, and headed up an investment firm that later focused on leveraged buyouts. Sounds like a carpetbagger to me.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

                                A new PPP poll:

                                Obama leads Romney by 4, Perry by 11 nationally

                                President Obama’s jobs speech last Thursday night might have given him a boost in his bid for re-election. After tying his perpetually strongest potential challenger Mitt Romney last month, Obama again leads him, but still by a smaller margin than he beat John McCain in the national popular vote three years ago. Everyone else far underperforms McCain, who lost to the president in a near landslide.

                                Obama tops Romney, 49-45, up from a 45-all tie in PPP’s August national poll. He leads Rick Perry, 52-41 (49-43 in August); Newt Gingrich, 53-41; and Michele Bachmann, 53-39 (50-42). Were voters given the choice to reconsider the 2008 election, they would still elect Obama, but by only five points (51-46), when he actually won by seven, indicating some voters have changed their minds, but that not just any GOP nominee will do.

                                The president’s more solid standing in the Perry and Romney horseraces comes from consolidating his party support. He was losing 13% of Democrats to each candidate in August, but only 11% to Romney and 9% to Perry now. Obama has meanwhile upped his own crossover support, from 5% to 9% of Republicans versus Romney and 10% to 11% against Perry. The president leads Perry by ten points with independents, but Romney tops Obama by two with them.

                                Americans are at odds with the Republican candidates on some of their controversial statements. 54% believe in global warming, and 51% in evolution. Only 37% do not believe in each. Only 10% would support eliminating Social Security, while 82% would not. Only 20% agree with Perry that the program is a “Ponzi scheme,” and 70% do not. Even Republicans disagree on that, 39-49.

                                “In just three weeks Barack Obama has nearly doubled his lead over Rick Perry,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “That would seem to be an indication that Perry’s comments about Social Security are giving him trouble with swing voters.”
                                http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m...ationally.html

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