Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

[reallife]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

My prediction: Bachmann flames out early. Palin never enters the race. Perry and Romney split the primaries by pandering to the tea partiers and the religious right, leaving the moderate center to Obama. Romney wins the convention after a vicious floor fight when the tea partiers walk out. Obama wipes the floor with Romney in the general election.

[charliebrown]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

i'm too dense, and so is google, what are you talking about shiny?

[shiny!]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

i'm too dense, and so is google, what are you talking about shiny?

In response to Metalman's comment about going full-on anarchist, I basically said I was a Browncoat and made a reference to Malcolm Reynolds and Zoe Washburn from Firefly.

Firefly was a brilliant but short-lived TV show that aired in 2002. Originally inspired by the book, "The Killer Angels", it was about the aftermath of a civil war as seen from the side of the losers. The rebels who lost were called Browncoats. Mal and Zoe have become popular Libertarian icons; in the 2008 election you could get T-shirts and bumper stickers for Reynolds-Washburn for President.

Firefly was about a family's struggle to live freely while under the thumb of an increasingly meddlesome, impersonal, bureaucratic government. Sound familiar?

In an ironic case of life-imitating-art-imitating-life, Firefly, which many people consider to be one of the finest TV shows ever made, was cancelled by meddlesome, impersonal, bureaucratic network executives after airing only 11 of the 14 episodes filmed. Three years later, a follow-up movie called Serenity was released that tied up the loose ends left in Firefly.

In the nine years since it aired, the love for Firefly, and the number of Browncoats, just keeps growing. The loosly organized Browncoat community does a lot of good, putting on annual screenings of Serenity in cities around the world to raise money for various charities.

If you haven't seen Firefly and Serenity you're missing a real treat!

http://www.amazon.com/Firefly-Comple...4855581&sr=8-1

http://www.amazon.com/Serenity-Colle...855989&sr=1-18

And now back to our regularly scheduled thread...

[Iron Zeppelin]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Let's kick it off, 15 months out. This is not a thread for ideological debates. Please keep your partisan hackery to yourself. From time to time I will update with odds, polls etc.

If I had to guess today, I'd say that Rick Perry is going to be the GOP nominee. The big money will split between him and Romney and the Heartland base of voters will give it to Perry, not Bachmann. He's a Governor with a history that Bachmann can't touch as a mere Representative. Obama coming out of the Senate was not the start of a new trend. The big money is not backing Bachmann, she's getting the small money checks from the Heartland.

Great idea babbittd ! I bought 50 shares of Rick Perry/republican primary on Intrade, let's see how that turns out. So far polls are still pretty optimistic.
I don't know who will win the general election but I'll check 538 are the start of 2012. They were spot on in 2008 and provided us with an insane amount of useful data & analysis.

[Ghent12]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Personally, I don't think there's much of a chance for there to ever be a woman president here. This is why:




For some reason, a bad and unflattering photo is much more forgivable when it's of a man.


I'm not just assuming that President Obama has changed anything--he has. He's changed the game. There's still an African American on the ballot for President. Barring a crisis situation, the economy's "new normal" will have sunk in by election day and although it will be a negative influence on President Obama's reelection bid, I don't think it can overcome the nearly 12% voter turnout boost that he's proven capable of. All Republicans start way in the distance so I believe it will take more than just a stagnant economy to push a Republican into office.

[shiny!]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I'm not just assuming that President Obama has changed anything--he has. He's changed the game. There's still an African American on the ballot for President. Barring a crisis situation, the economy's "new normal" will have sunk in by election day and although it will be a negative influence on President Obama's reelection bid, I don't think it can overcome the nearly 12% voter turnout boost that he's proven capable of. All Republicans start way in the distance so I believe it will take more than just a stagnant economy to push a Republican into office.

Obama has alienated and disillusioned a lot of the people who voted for him in 2008, but could still win by drawing in the voters who live on public assistance and entitlements. They won't vote for him because they like him or think he did a good job, but because they perceive him as more likely to keep their cheques coming.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

He's changed the game. There's still an African American on the ballot for President.

Frankly this makes no sense whatsoever.

You're trying to say that Obama is changing the game just by being an incumbent?

I don't see it. You can only be the first Black president once, and he's already done it.

Now that he can no longer play the race card, I frankly don't see that it makes an appreciable difference.

Being the first black 2 term President is frankly a much weaker message.

All those who voted for him, on the other hand, can clearly feel there's been no change.

The turnout won't be anywhere close to where it was in 2008, because the 'it' factor is no longer there.

[Ghent12]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Frankly this makes no sense whatsoever.

You're trying to say that Obama is changing the game just by being an incumbent?

No, he changed the game when he was running for president last time around. The game was changed because of him, and the new rule set starts off significantly in his favor. He changed the game, and he still benefits from it. McCain, a "standard" or "normal" candidate, received 86% as many votes as Obama. Obama has to lose roughly a total of 15% of his supporters to apathy, or roughly 7.5% to the Republican challenger, for it to even be a dead heat. Where is this 15% (7.5%) going to come from? Surely the performance of the economy will account for part of it, but that entire amount? Even if it does, that puts Obama dead even with the Republican challenger, not behind them.

The Republicans, generally speaking, have no broad-appeal issues that they can monopolize the way Bush did national security and Bible thumping. As I said before, a "crisis" or a transformational Republican/Independent is probably the only way for Obama to lose. That's my guess, anyways.

[lakedaemonian]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Its the economy, stupid.

It's a shame Lady GaGa and The Oprah can't Tweet: "It's the Special Interests, stupid" along with www.opensecrets.org

I'm strongly of the belief that a 3rd party in the US cannot stand toe-to-toe against the two entrenched parties.

To me that would be a bit like the Viet Cong trying to take on NATO and the Warsaw Pact out in the open in a standup fight at the time and place of the entrenched interests choosing.....political suicide or at best Charge of the Light Brigade.

If only the Tea Party could break contact from being perceived as a wing of the GOP and focus on where it could potentially offer an opportunity to regain control of the political process in the US by being a party blind, issue blind filter to separate politicians from special interest $$$ influence and control.

If candidates who accept special interest $$$ are successfully branded as lepers/traitors/political pedophiles does it really matter that much who wins?

Doesn't guarantee a good result, but wouldn't it guarantee better political representation?

I can't follow US professional sports anymore for the same reasons....it's all about the money...and the players/politicians don't give a sh!t about us the fans or us the voters.....whether you are a Cowboys/Redskins fan or a Democrat/Republican voter...they're all laughing to the bank at our expense.

And I bet they are laughing hardest at the fact we get so easily worked up and distracted about rivalries like Cowboys/Eagles and Democrat/Republican. Lost in the melodramatic theatre of sport and politics without noticing the real show behind the curtain.

They and their owners don't care much which team/party "wins" because ultimately they always do, regardless.

So I reckon discussion of US politics is often a poor investment in time unless it's focused on the underlying corruption that permeates the process.

If the foundation of the democratic house is seriously compromised what's the point in expending effort on discussing carpet and paint?

Just my 0.02c

[jk]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

both parties are intellectually and morally bankrupt. but i think even republicans from marginal districts would rather blame obama than try to do anything [which is likely to fail in any event], so nothing will be done legislatively - even if it were possible- to provide marginal improvement prior to the election.

i think obama's tepid response to the crisis [rahm's "never let a good crisis go to waste" to the contrary], and his pro-FIRE policies have made the economic mess his, even though the crisis emerged under w and the roots go back much further.

i think in 2012 democrats are going to stay home in droves. there's been no quicker way to get thrown under the bus than to be an obama supporter. [most recent example- how many environmentalists lost their faith in obama over his recent backing away from tougher ozone standards? it's not that they will therefore join the tea party, but that they are now marginally less likely to turn out for the election at all.] there will be none of the enthusiasm and fervor he engendered in 2008. he might get black turnout almost as high as 2008, but other democrats will stay home.

when hope turns into despair, people don't vote.

so dem turnout and overall turnout will be sig lower. meanwhile angry republicans, social conservatives, the religious right, "birthers," etc will vote.

the democrats will try to scare their former supporters into turning out, but i don't even think the republicans will need to kick it up to the supreme court this time. then the disaster will proceed as seems predestined.

maybe 2016 will be significant, i.e. real change. but it's a long way away, and the world might be a lot darker by then. [pardon me, i'm fairly dour in general. otoh, having a pessimistic outlook is doing me a world of good in my investment choices. so the markets, at least, seem to be telling me i'm getting it right, i.e. the situation is truly awful.]

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

No, he changed the game when he was running for president last time around. The game was changed because of him, and the new rule set starts off significantly in his favor. He changed the game, and he still benefits from it. McCain, a "standard" or "normal" candidate, received 86% as many votes as Obama. Obama has to lose roughly a total of 15% of his supporters to apathy, or roughly 7.5% to the Republican challenger, for it to even be a dead heat. Where is this 15% (7.5%) going to come from? Surely the performance of the economy will account for part of it, but that entire amount? Even if it does, that puts Obama dead even with the Republican challenger, not behind them.

He changed the game by being the first black president and (retrospectively cynically) exploiting a bland generic 'change' message.

However, as he already had a term as president, the first factor is gone.

The second factor, the 'change' message, has not been backed up in the public perception in any way.

As jk notes, the 15% loss in support will come from a combination of moderates and kids not turning out to vote for him as a candidate which so thoroughly ignored his platform, plus voters of all stripes voting against him due to failed policies - primarily economic.

The official unemployment rate was 6.8% in November 2008, and was 7.8% in January 2009.

Today it is 9.1%

Barring a miracle - and I mean the biblical type - this rate has nowhere to go but up.

Bush Sr. got crushed by an unemployment rate that went from 5.2% in June 1990 to 7.8% in June 1992.

He'll get 'his' demographic - the black vote - plus the ultra left will still hold their noses and vote for him.

The moderates will not.

[reallife]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

......

He'll get 'his' demographic - the black vote - plus the ultra left will still hold their noses and vote for him.

The moderates will not.

I respectfully disagree. I'm a moderate and I know many other moderates who will vote for Obama's re-election. The election will not be held in a vacuum. Obama will be running against a Republican opponent and voters will have to choose. So far, I don't see a Republican candidate coming out of the GOP convention that I will be able to vote for. I believe the Republicans will shift so far to the right during the primary run up that they will not be able to re-claim the middle ground. Independent moderates such as myself will be the deciding factor in the 2012 election.

[jpatter666]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I respectfully disagree. I'm a moderate and I know many other moderates who will vote for Obama's re-election. The election will not be held in a vacuum. Obama will be running against a Republican opponent and voters will have to choose. So far, I don't see a Republican candidate coming out of the GOP convention that I will be able to vote for. I believe the Republicans will shift so far to the right during the primary run up that they will not be able to re-claim the middle ground. Independent moderates such as myself will be the deciding factor in the 2012 election.

Exactly -- we feel the same way. Honestly, we're fed up with both parties.

Just finished reading Ron Paul's End the Fed which was much better and thought out than I thought it would be.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I believe the Republicans will shift so far to the right during the primary run up that they will not be able to re-claim the middle ground.

I disagree - the classic strategy be it Clinton, Bush Jr, or Obama is to start radical in your base then shift center. All the foofaraw you see now is the energizing of the base.

Independent moderates such as myself will be the deciding factor in the 2012 election.

The moderates are always the deciding factors.

Will all the kids that turned out for 2008 turn out again despite a truly dismal economy for the college graduates/under 25 demographic?

Will all the apathetic voters who wanted to vote for the first black president turn out again to vote for the 2nd term of the first black president?

Ghent12 thinks so.

I do not.

IMO If these people turn out, it will be because of a negative reason: to vote against rather than to vote for.

If indeed the Republican party gets all nutty and Tea Party, they will lose - absolutely no disagreement on my part.

The 2012 Presidential election is very much in reach for the Republican party, however, and there is no chance they would cough up the opportunity to get into the White House again.

[astonas]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

I disagree - the classic strategy be it Clinton, Bush Jr, or Obama is to start radical in your base then shift center. All the foofaraw you see now is the energizing of the base.

It is the classic strategy. But the republicans are being forced to make pre-primary statements that are so strong it will be hard to distance themselves from them when it gets time for the general. Obama's big advantage is that he has no primary, and is already working to appeal to the middle. The far left is dismayed, of course, but I hardly think they will switch parties. And in terms of rallying the base to get turnout up, it will be much easier to do when there is the specter of an extremely conservative challenger around.

This is why Obama loses to a "generic" challenger. Any real challenger, however, will have specific problems that will re-energize the left. The fact that everyone in the current field has stated that they would not have supported the debt-ceiling "compromise" because it did not go far enough is just one example of how they are managing to distance themselves from moderates who actually care less about the size of government than the fact that it should function.