Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

a few of the latest polls, Perry ahead of Romney in Georgia and Wisconsin, Romney ahead of Perry in Florida and New Hampshire.

Perry now 6 to 4 (Victor Chandler) to win the nomination and 7/2 to win the whole thing.

[we_are_toast]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

a few of the latest polls, Perry ahead of Romney in Georgia and Wisconsin, Romney ahead of Perry in Florida and New Hampshire.

Perry now 6 to 4 (Victor Chandler) to win the nomination and 7/2 to win the whole thing.

I'll gladly take those 7/2 odds for Perry winning the whole thing. Perry stuck his foot in his mouth immediately, and has said several things that will make great campaign commercials in the general. Bachmann continues to hold him back in some primary states, while Romney is squeezing through several states that he shouldn't be leading. Perry has got some big governor campaign skeletons in his closet that will make it even worse for him.

With an economy in this big a mess, for Obama to even be in the game, says volumes about how bad the Republican field is. If Bachmann can win a primary and a couple caucuses, she could take it to the convention, where the big players will be behind Romney. Romney and Perry want this bad and they'll kick each other hard during the whole process. Both will come out of it very bloodied.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Keep in minds the odds will adjust in order to attract the most possible wagers. At this point I'm not predicting a Perry (or Romney) outright victory.

I think now would be a good time to take Obama (8/13, down slightly since I first posted them) for the re-election and with an eye on the polls and economy come next Fall, possibly hedge with a wager on the GOP nominee.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

wow...the latest gallup poll:

General Election: Romney vs. Obama Gallup Obama 46, Romney 48 Romney +2
General Election: Perry vs. Obama Gallup Obama 47, Perry 47 Tie
General Election: Bachmann vs. Obama Gallup Obama 48, Bachmann 44 Obama +4
General Election: Paul vs. Obama Gallup Obama 47, Paul 45 Obama +2
General Election: Palin vs. Obama Rasmussen Reports Obama 50, Palin 33 Obama +17

Stock markets tanking take Obama's chances for re-election along with them...

[rjwjr]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

The Bernank

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

The Establishment or whatever they are called are pushing Huntsman hard....He is polling terribly, worse than Herman Cain, yet CNN, MSNBC and other media outlets showering him with attention this week.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Romney leading Michigan polls by a large margin....
Obama takes another hit in the Gallup job approval. Down to 38% approve....

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Perry leading Romney in Iowa and Ohio, Romney ahead in Florida.

[metalman]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

i'm going fullon anarchist.

janusz palikot for president!



support the guns & dildos party!

[shiny!]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

i'm going fullon anarchist.

janusz palikot for president!

support the guns & dildos party!

My coat is brown. Reynolds and Washburn for 2012.

(C'mon, some of you will get it!)

[Ghent12]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

With an economy in this big a mess, for Obama to even be in the game, says volumes about how bad the Republican field is. If Bachmann can win a primary and a couple caucuses, she could take it to the convention, where the big players will be behind Romney. Romney and Perry want this bad and they'll kick each other hard during the whole process. Both will come out of it very bloodied.

I don't think your first statement is necessarily true. I believe that Obama is still a game-changing politician, though probably less effective this time than his first cakewalk into the Presidency. How much blame can be stuck squarely on "the man" for keeping President Obama down (sic)? The obfuscation that Republicans attempted throughout his presidency may come back to bite them in the form of reduced apathy for Obama supporters, and I think it will especially because of the turnout boost that President Obama commands.

The Republican field is full of fairly "normal" candidates (except Palin, who flaggered from her initial potential and could be considered a "flop" now), but this is not a "normal" presidential election if such a thing can be defined.

If you consider the election of 2000 to be a baseline year, then President Bush's reelection bid in 2004 could be considered a tremendous success because voter turnout overall increased 4 points and most of that went to Bush who lost the popular vote in 2000. That was Karl Rove's doing by focusing on boosting turnout from the church, my understanding suggests. Then if you compare 2008 to 2000, the turnout boost commanded by Obama's candidacy is substantially greater at about 7.2 points higher turnout (than 2000, not 2004). He really was really popular and a seminal figure in American politics. There was almost no chance of a Republican victory in 2008 in the wake of Bush, but that was assured by the legion of followers created by Obama.

While you can say that many Obama supporters have been disaffected, can you claim that even the majority of them have been so disaffected as to not only not vote for Obama, but to actively vote for the Republican nominee? Baring the onset of a double-dip, as c1ue alludes to, I don't think so.

My summary is this: Obama's presence will boost voter turnout substantially over a "normal" election with fairly "standard" or at least non-game-changing candidates such as 2000, 1996, 1988, etc. There is no way he can lose to a "standard" or a "flop" GOP nominee unless events dictate otherwise (just as the first financial collapse ensured a Democrat's victory). As Chomsky alludes to, he can only lose to a transformative candidate, which may or may not include Ron Paul (who himself may turn out to be a flop candidate like Goldwater). Another alternative is that someone like Kucinich or Nader or even Paul (but none of them specifically, since it hasn't happened already with them) becomes the transformative third-party candidate that does to Obama what Perot is blamed for doing to Bush Sr.

So wait and see. If double-dip recession, then Obama loses (except maybe to Palin). If a transformative candidate emerges, then Obama loses. Otherwise, he wins. Those are my predictions.

[charliebrown]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

ok here it is.

market tanks / employment tanks --> any repub wins , oman loses.
...paul victory --> markets tank deflationary depression. WWIII as small agressors fill vacuum.
...other republican wins --> never ending proxy wars in the mid east and other flash points.
......economy gets a 3 year breather before high inflation ignites.

markets stable / employment stable --> 60/40 oman wins.
...inflationary depression begins soon.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Several us seem to be in agreement.....which worries me.
We're already seeing economic downturn in Q1 and Q2.
Stock market volatility and inflation in the same environment.
Obama's "approval" numbers are quickly fading.
It's too early to call the election outright, but I don't think it's going to take to much more negative news for Obama to lose.

[Ghent12]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

It's too early to call the election outright, but I don't think it's going to take to much more negative news for Obama to lose.

I disagree completely with that. I believe Obama can withstand any amount of bad news short of 2008-level or worse "crisis" levels. Any of the so-called "likely" Republican nominees can't touch him on national security especially with the expected Fall 2012 release of a movie based on the UBL raid (says the rumor mill). This fact negates one of the traditional Republican cards used to bring in swing voters.

Don't underestimate Obama's ability to bring people to the polls. It is likely to be less than last time, but the Republicans don't have Karl Rove to preach from the pulpit to boost their base support. There is no contest between Obama and a generic Republican candidate come election day, despite what current polls may suggest.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2012 - predictions, discussion?

Its the economy, stupid.

Obama has failed totally by anyone's measure in terms of ideological performance.

To say that he's "game changing" assumes he has actually changed something besides being the first Black president.

And while that won't change, what has he done for anyone lately? What happens when he goes up against the potential first woman president?

If all he has is tugging racial guilt heart strings, that's worthless the 2nd time around. This time around there are real economic issues - jobs, wage growth, inflation.

National Security is all fine and good, but the reality is that there has not been any type of successful terrorist activity in the United States for going on 10 years. That dead horse is thoroughly beaten.

I predict all the Republicans will look terrible, but ultimately it won't matter.

The voters will by and large be pissed off because they don't have jobs and aren't making a good living, and will take it out on whoever the incumbent is - just like they did with Congress last year.

The Republican Presidential candidate - assuming he has the brains of a rutabaga - will blame Congress (not the Democratic Congress, but Congress) for screwing it up, and will say he can do better if given a chance.

That's all the message necessary when times are bad.