Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

iTulip's last foray into political prognostication (Mark Warner) was not as successful as its economic predictions.

Warner has been selected by Team Obama to be the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

The model explains about 90% of the variation in the share of the vote. Over the previous seven elections, the model has correctly predicted the state winner 86% of the time. The model has successfully called the winner of the Electoral College in every election from 1980 on.

Inflation + recession =change

The prediction for 2008 is based on Moody’s Economy.com’s forecasts for inflation and state unemployment rates for the fall. In the third quarter of 2008, top-line inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index, is expected to be 3.6% on a six-quarter annualized basis. The forecast for the change in the unemployment rate over the previous two years ranges from -0.4 of a percentage point, in Oklahoma, to +2.1 percentage points in Nevada. Overall, rising inflation, recession, and a worsening labor market will make it very difficult for Senator McCain to win the election, especially on top of the incumbent fatigue problem.

Overall, the model predicts the Democratic nominee will win 30 states plus the District of Columbia, for a total of 380 Electoral College votes, far more than the 270 required to win (see Table 2). Eleven states are projected to switch from Republican in 2004 to Democratic in 2008. No states are expected to switch from Democratic to Republican.

source

Moody's electoral college model apparently vastly outperforms their credit risk models.

(moved from another thread)

[metalman]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

this may not play well in california, new york, etc.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

Inflation + recession =change

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Monday, October 06, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Barack Obama attracting 52% of the vote while John McCain earns 44%. This is the highest level of support ever recorded for Obama and is his largest lead of the year. It also continues a remarkable twenty-five days in a row where the Democrat’s support has never declined by even a single point. The Democratic candidate has gained six full percentage points of support since Lehman Brothers collapsed to start the Wall Street mess (see trends).

[reallife]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

I won't point any fingers expect to say that the idea this is a conspiracy is absurd.

Bush did what he believed to be right. History will either prove him to be the ultimate idiot or a principled risk taker. Sometimes I swear I think both on the same day.

If you really want to exercise your tin foil, feel free to follow the news on bear sterns. That's interesting stuff.

However, as for politics, people only call it a conspiracy because it helps them feel better about not understanding it.

Do people in politics lie and manipulate? Of course. Everyone does in every single social situation of their lives. Partly it's because we want to control, but also because we simply don't know the real truth and it's easier to pretend we do.

Does anyone in politics conspire? Rarely. The few times they do, they're taking huge huge chances, and it frequently blows up in their faces .. even more so these a days.

Hell, people are getting screwed over / prosecuted simply because they aren't telling the truth *well enough*, nevermind lying.

But the idea that someone controls what's going on.. hah hah. Are those black helicopters I see? whirr whirr whirr...

I agree with you 100%, but there really are black helicopters you know. When I was in the Army, stationed at Ft. Bliss, Texas I saw them occasionally at night on the highway up into New Mexico. Once, three or four of them zoomed across the highway right in front of my SUV at road level, maybe 4-6 feet above the ground, underneath the power lines, and a hundred yards ahead of me. My wife and I both saw them. They are very fast and very lethal. They are flown by Special Ops guys all over Iraq and Afganistan, and who knows, maybe in Pakistan too. I had several patients over the years who piloted them using night vision equipment Hollywood hasn't even dreamed of yet.

BTW, Obama is the first candidate in many years who really does place our country first.

By comparison, McCain remains a spoiled brat, raised by Admirals to carry on their legacy, who has a serious 'daddy' complex that he will inflict on all of us if he is elected. His behavior isn't erratic at all if you understand that he will do anything to get elected. Becoming president is his way of 'besting' his heavy-handed, largely absent father. He was a total fu*k-up in the Naval Academy but was 'selected' to fly fighters?? Yes, thanks to his daddy(s). When he crashed his toys, daddy was there to get him a new one. True enough he was a POW but their are many un-asked and un-answered questions about his Honor, Courage and Committment when he was in captivity. After his release he demonstrated his commitment by running around on his wife. BTW, adultery is still a punishable offense in the Uniform Code of Military Justice but it was never applied to John McCain, the Admiral's son. Ronald Reagan was correct in his personal assesment of McCain's ambition and ability to put himself above duty and country. Too bad RR isn't here now to straighten out the record. He would too, out of principal.

My predictions: Senator McCain will lose by a landslide in November, have a relapse of his metastatic malignant melanoma and die within six months in early 2010. He really should get more rest and eat better you know. The GOP will continue to flounder in their right wing "conservative" ideology. The Democratic Party will become the party of business. FWIW, Gov. Palin has been exposed for what she is: an airhead, one term governor of Alaska. President Obama will handily win re-election in 2012.

[BK]

Re: Obama is the first candidate in many years who really does place our country first.

Real life,

Where do I get what ever you are smoking or drinking - Obama Koolaid - it must be great stuff.

You forgot to mention that McCain probably beats his children, steals money from his church collection plate, and he has been caught Jaywalking in Washington-DC.

I've heard that Obama plans to reduce the Salary for the Office of the President when he takes Office. Obama has no interest in money or power - he simply does it because he cares about the People.
If he does get elected perhaps we pass a constitutional amendment and make him Dictator for Life because we will be so blessed for a such a great man offer to be our President.

So much for Itulip being a venue for critical thinkers!

[we_are_toast]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

It aint over till it's over.

If Obama doesn't win decisively, look for the McCain camp to start challenging recounts in court. The challenges will go all the way to the supreme court and we know what will happen there, another appointed president.

[WDCRob]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

Obama in a landslide.

[reallife]

Re: Obama is the first candidate in many years who really does place our country first.

Real life,

Where do I get what ever you are smoking or drinking - Obama Koolaid - it must be great stuff.

You forgot to mention that McCain probably beats his children, steals money from his church collection plate, and he has been caught Jaywalking in Washington-DC.

I've heard that Obama plans to reduce the Salary for the Office of the President when he takes Office. Obama has no interest in money or power - he simply does it because he cares about the People.
If he does get elected perhaps we pass a constitutional amendment and make him Dictator for Life because we will be so blessed for a such a great man offer to be our President.

So much for Itulip being a venue for critical thinkers!

BK, try to keep your comments from becoming personal attacks on other forum members. We are all welcome to our opinions and interpretations of the facts. Not that you mentioned any facts. Here's a few facts for you: I forgot to mention that I have 27 years of military service under my belt. I am an anesthesiologist and have many years of training and experience in critical thinking. I may not be an economist but I have years of personal investment experience, largely successful. I will not be getting any tax breaks under Obama. I am an INDEPENDENT VOTER. I am voting for OBAMA. People like me can see through McCain like an open window.

[BK]

Re:Politician and Country First - mutually exclusive

Real life,

My reaction was a to the combination of Politician and Country First.

Sorry - I believe these to be mutually exclusive. How many Politicians are in office - whom have massive personal wealth and say No to the Checks from the Treasury - is there one? Senators vote them selves a cost of living increase without fail. The job is all about MONEY, POWER, PRESTIGE, AND MONEY.

I believe Senator Obama has the same intense self interest as any Politician.

Sorry - lots of very bright people on the iTulip forums and I'm struck by people who see any Politician as THE ANSWER.

Again - I'm not a Big Fan of McCain - I'll admit I have more mis-givings against voting for Senator Obama.

I'm floored by the Intensity of the devotion to Senator OBama. I think intense devotion to any Politician puts our personal liberties at risk.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Get your bets in now

The Markets know who is going to win.

Bodog.com:

Bet On: Who will be the next president of the United States? Vote on who will win the 2008 Presidential election. Any wagers placed after outcome becomes public knowledge will be no action. Singles Only. Max. $300.

John McCain +260

Barack Obama -340

[hellstan]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

ASH, don't worry about the travails of who is elected, he will be fixed for life financially, and he will be an indelible mark in history--I expect if you could get into either candidate's mind, you would see that that is all that counts.

Jim, regarding McSneer, he's already fixed — thanks to madam.:cool:

Obama 290 at least.

[Guest]

Re: Get your bets in now

Wow that's an eye opener. Am I reading this right? I thought Obama was the odds favorite here?

The Markets know who is going to win.

Bodog.com:

Bet On: Who will be the next president of the United States? Vote on who will win the 2008 Presidential election. Any wagers placed after outcome becomes public knowledge will be no action. Singles Only. Max. $300.

John McCain +260

Barack Obama -340

[Slimprofits]

Re: Get your bets in now

Wow that's an eye opener. Am I reading this right? I thought Obama was the odds favorite here?

Risk $340 to win $100 on a Obama victory.

Risk $100 to win $260 on a McCain victory.

Aha! I do have something to teach to some members of Itulip.