Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

[Slimprofits]

This came up as I'm going back and forth with a 'conservative' friend about the election. He, like others is convinced that the fresh round of anti-Obama books coming out is going to swing the election away from Obama.

I dispute the myth of the 'independent voter' and the myth of 'national' opinion polls.

What I see is that Americans generally fall into four political groups. Hardline, D and R party voters, Radical / third party types / people that don’t care and don’t vote.

There are no droves of “independent voters” that in August of 2008 don’t already have an opinion about current political issues. The independents are the people that investigate all angles from varying sources and don’t simply rely on books written by the Jerome Corsi as primary sources for information.

And let’s talk about these polls.

In 2004, in Ohio In 2008, in , roughly 2.2 millon votes were cast in the Democrat primary.

In 2004, in – 750,000 votes cast in the Democrat primary
In 2008, In PA – 2.25 million votes cast in the Democrat primary

In 2004, in – 140k votes cast Dem primary
In 2008, in – 580k votes cast without Obama’s name on the ballot

In 2004, in – 320k In 2008, in Indiana – 1.2 million

30,000 more books connecting Obama to Wright and Farrakhan could be published and airdropped over the entire country between now and November and McCain is still going to be trounced.

Every available betting market agrees that Obama is going to win:

• Intrade has Obama as a 60.3 buy and McCain as a 36.9 buy
• Bookmaker.com has the Democrats at -250 and the GOP at +185
• Bodog has Obama at -230 and McCain at +170
• Diamond Sportsbook has the Democrats at -250 and the GOP at +185
• BetOnline.com has has Obama at -250 and McCain at +175
• WorldSportsExchange has Democrat nominee as a 67 buy and the Republican nominee as a 39 buy

[ASH]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

iTulip's last foray into political prognostication (Mark Warner) was not as successful as its economic predictions.

Pity whoever is elected, as they will likely be unequal to the looming fiscal challenges.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

iTulip's last foray into political prognostication (Mark Warner) was not as successful as its economic predictions.

Pity whoever is elected, as they will likely be unequal to the looming fiscal challenges.

ASH, don't worry about the travails of who is elected, he will be fixed for life financially, and he will be an indelible mark in history--I expect if you could get into either candidate's mind, you would see that that is all that counts.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

iTulip's last foray into political prognostication (Mark Warner) was not as successful as its economic predictions.

I may be a paying member, but my views don't speak for Itulip, Inc.

**********

The theatre this time around has been enjoyable.

The shrieking, angry Hilary fans that are going to riot in Denver, sit out of the election, etc.

The dissapearance of the Resko affair.

For months the Republicans made a big deal about Obama not having recently been to Iraq. And when he went to Iraq, they screamed for days about the attention the trip received.

This is good stuff, entertaining.

[c1ue]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

If McCain will pull his head out of his rump, and start focusing on the generation and trust issue, he'll have a much better chance.

Obama sounds nice but ultimately has no defense to the accusation that he doesn't understand and won't protect the baby boomers' interests.

All the flip flopping he is doing is likely also hurting his initial youth eco-nut support.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

I may be a paying member, but my views don't speak for Itulip, Inc.

**********

The theatre this time around has been enjoyable.

The shrieking, angry Hilary fans that are going to riot in Denver, sit out of the election, etc.

The dissapearance of the Resko affair.

For months the Republicans made a big deal about Obama not having recently been to Iraq. And when he went to Iraq, they screamed for days about the attention the trip received.

This is good stuff, entertaining.

With due respect, babbitt, it's really all bullshit. If you want entertainment, try renting a video.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

With due respect, babbitt, it's really all bullshit.

Political theatre - bullshit - same thing. And who says that bullshit can't be entertaining? I can stand it in small doses every four years.

[ASH]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

I may be a paying member, but my views don't speak for Itulip, Inc.

Quite so. Forgive my imprecision. I didn't mean to dismiss your assessment. I suppose I was trying to say that the economy appears to be easier to predict than the outcome of (some) elections. The implication was "if EJ got it wrong, and came to regret speculating on politics, then..."

For my part, I was quite surprised by the outcome of the primaries. Before the campaigning began, I had thought this would be a Giuliani vs. Clinton contest (a rather conventional view). Now, it's true that I have invested rather little time and attention studying politics, but this is the one area in which my expectations have routinely been proven wrong. Being vain, I had supposed this to be an indication that politics is less predictable than other topics, but it is more likely an indication that I just don't understand the political world very well.

For the record, I expect Senator Obama to win... but I have very little confidence in my expectation, based upon my past track record.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

If McCain will pull his head out of his rump, and start focusing on the generation and trust issue, he'll have a much better chance.

Obama sounds nice but ultimately has no defense to the accusation that he doesn't understand and won't protect the baby boomers' interests.

I agree, but the chances of that are low though. What the heck is he waiting for? After initially admitting that he is clueless about the economy, followed later by the Phil Gramm episode, I think that would be the greatest turnaround in recent history as far as election gaffes.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

I didn't mean to dismiss your assessment.

Didn't take it that way, but wanted to make sure you didn't think I was repeating something written by E.J.

For my part, I was quite surprised by the outcome of the primaries. Before the campaigning began, I had thought this would be a Giuliani vs. Clinton contest ....For the record, I expect Senator Obama to win... but I have very little confidence in my expectation, based upon my past track record.

I've thought since '06 that the Dem nominee would win this election, no matter who they were. But, how did Romney not win the GOP nomination? He is better than McCain on economic matters. They are about even on conservative social issees. Romney isn't a "Washington Insider". Did Republicans vote for McCain because of war issues over everything else? It appears so.

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

I didn't take it that way. Just wanted to make sure you didn't think I was repeating something from them.



I've thought since '06 that the Dem nominee would win this election, no matter who they were. How did Romney not win the GOP nomination? He is far better than McCain on economic matters. They are about even on conservative social isses. Did Republicans vote for McCain because of war issues over everything else? It appears so.

There are more Baptists than Mormans, and Baptists don't cotton to Mormons.

[Slimprofits]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

There are more Baptists than Mormans, and Baptists don't cotton to Mormons.

The religious background is huge.....ok that puts into perspective a little more why the focus on Obama's secret Muslim youth and background. I figured that was mostly political, i.e. the WoT.

[ASH]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

ASH, don't worry about the travails of who is elected, he will be fixed for life financially, and he will be an indelible mark in history--I expect if you could get into either candidate's mind, you would see that that is all that counts.

What? Surely these are selfless public servants -- the best and brightest that our society can call forth, devoted to the common good, towering in their wisdom yet beatific in their humility, practically exuding candor and integrity from every pore?

Actually, I find less to object to about these choices than many elections past.

[Jeff]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

In addressing the issues and insanities of the America political (and economic) sytems(s) it is important to remember that the current American is the absolute worst ever in history EXCEPT for every other one.

When people say how much our system sucks or how taxes are too high or whatever other excuse for being politically apothetic, all I can ask is, "Compared to what?" and "How do you plan to help fix it?"

[tree]

Re: Election 2008: Get your bets in because McCain has no chance

Heard George McGovern today on the car radio today. In '72, he lost in large part because the kids who were all for him couldn't bother to vote.

I have "pulled" votes on Election Night (you drive 'em to the polls). Lots of folks are tired after a long day of work and just can't see it by 7 p.m. (Nah, can't have election day over a weekend, now can we.)

Older white folks are uncomfortable with Obama. Lotsa folks just don't want a black man. And the kids? Will they vote?

I think McCain will win, by a little. A doctor friend of mine insists he won't live out his term. Why anyone sitting pretty wants that job now I just can't understand.

BTW, if you want to pull votes, etc. for Obama, you might find the local union labor council (AFL-CIO) where you live and give a call. They have very efficient election operations, honed over the years, and can always use help.