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1931-1933: Our Future

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  • 1931-1933: Our Future

    Interesting thought provoking article from Elaine - 1931-1933: Our Future

    It always enriches us to go into the past to see the road before us. The future is always illuminated by the past. But we can't look directly at the past anymore than we can directly look at the future. We see all in a mirror which distorts things or dims the vision. Understanding how to make a good mirror and burnish it brightly is key to viewing the future with the greatest clarity. Many people like to see the past in a carnival mirror because it fits preconceptions. We must strive to avoid this! Now, onto today's attempt at seeing the past:
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    The present collapse of international banking is running on a track that was laid long ago. Far from having a better operating, better designed system, the creators of the present mess merely tore up the FDR/Truman/Eisenhower tracks and set the new rails so they would smoothly glide all transport onto the old track system.

    Throughout the 1929-1939 banking/trade/political collapse, each year had special features. These were and still are very much time-related. Just as German trains adhere to strict schedules, so does this economic banking train. The beginning of this process of crashing the economic gravy train began last summer. By October, the collapse of the banking system was painfully obvious. All sorts of goofy schemes were used to fix the unfixable. Each step was greeted with undisguised joy by investment bankers. Each step made the future worse.


    During the first winter of this melt-down, everyone was hoping this would be a mild recession. Everyone prayed that the fixes were working. Then they failed. The status quo could not hold. Exactly one year after the beginning of the collapse, things suddenly got much worse. Just like in 1931. In 1931, the banking system was still seemingly working. The fall in worker's wages which preceded all of this, continued. Everyone thought, all we needed was to increase 'productivity' and 'profits' and all would be well.
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    Back to the Great Depression:
    Panic swept financial Europe on September 19, 1931, [Elaine: 9/19/31 is another interesting magic number!] two years after the start of the stock market Crash in the U.S. As rumors of English abandonment of the gold standard circulated, Amsterdam and other financial centers hastily attempted to bail out. The huge Paris and N.Y. credits were quickly used up and heavy gold shipments again were made to support the foundering pound sterling. England increased taxes 25% and decreased the dole 10% as part of a big austerity drive - but even this was not enough.

    England finally abandoned the gold standard on September 20, 1931. The unrealistically high value at which the pound had been pegged had boosted domestic consumption and imports and had undermined the competitiveness of her exports, causing funds to drain out of the country. France, on the other hand, had stabilized the franc at only 20% of its pre WW I level. Great acceleration towards the end is a common property of financial crises - most of which can seem manageable for months or years before the period of acceleration begins. While the impending crises themselves are often easily discernible by perceptive observers, predicting the onset of acceleration can be very difficult.
    The great acceleration effect is the 'off the cliff' momentum of all systems that are in a negative flow. Nature has many, many systematic crashes. Like a wave that builds higher and higher until the top comes cascading downwards or snow building up until it suddenly gives way in an avalanche or pressure building in the San Andreas fault system suddenly released: catastrophic failures are not unnatural. They are endemic to all natural systems.
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    Unlike today, note how the international credit system back then was dependent on the location of physical gold. The movement of this gold which was the basis of all banking, was very difficult. The very difficulties slowed down events. We must remember, the Goddesses of Inflation and Depression both can fly as fast as thought. Using gold to define the value of money slows this all down, tremendously. The very cumbersomeness of gold is the limit on the magical powers of these goddesses who are really numbers.
    We must remember, nature is mirrored by numbers. Numbers are NOT nature, they are a simulacrum of Nature. By taking paper money's numbers and translating this into gold, this physical action worked as a brake. The brakes gave way when too much money was lent to pay for WWI's bloody horrors and then reparations finished off the value of gold to numbers simulacrum. This then collapsed. In other words, it became physically impossible to shuffle physical gold around the planet to keep up with the messes created by the collapse in the monetary value of the numbers printed on pieces of paper! Whew.

    The race to cut interest rates was on. The hope was, this would restart lending. Sounds terribly familiar, doesn't it?
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    (continued)

  • #2
    Re: 1931-1933: Our Future

    Elaine now adds in that PPT Rescues Are IDENTICAL to PPT Rescues In 1931

    I find the TRUTH! As the government seeks to sneakily save Lehman Brothers during the usual sneaky weekend, I dig up a very old TIME magazine article from the fall, 1931, that CLEARLY shows that ALL the rescue operations we are seeing today are IDENTICAL to the ones Herbert Hoover tried that year! All of them. Isn't that amazing news? Should make headlines, eh? But the goddess of History is as terrifying as her evil sisters, Inflation and Depression. These three are sitting on top of their mountain, laughing at us.
    Also - Banking Collapse Is Getting Worse, Not Better


    Hurricane Ike is still pounding the remains of Galveston. Hurricane Banking Collapse 2007 is also still a howling 100 mph storm, too. Periodically, I visit Seeking Alpha to dispute the news with the economists there. There is a lot of wishful thinking out there! The dynamics of this meltdown are not like 1974 when the US was still basically solvent. It is very much like Britain in 1931. I use this as my own model which is why jerks upwards in stocks or commodities are not signs of a new bull market but rather, the death throes of a flooded city being pounded by a storm. The eye of the storm isn't a sign it is over. It is a sign of the second half coming ashore.
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    Alas, it is in the bond markets that we see echoes of the Great Depression the most clearly! The perception of wealth vanished with the crash of world stock markets. The bankruptcies of the individual debtors still wasn't all that great in 1929. Even in 1930, it seemed manageable. But the problem wasn't home owners unable to deal with credit problems! It was EMPIRES unable to do this! The entire system today is being rescued by the very same entity that is dying! The US empire is heading towards bankruptcy. The more it tries to save all the collapsing banks, the more swiftly the looming bankruptcy travels.

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    • #3
      Re: 1931-1933: Our Future

      Thanks, Rajiv. Great article. Wish she had more actionable advice in there, though.

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 1931-1933: Our Future

        As for actionable items Catherine Austin Fitts has some -
        Lehman Bankrupt, AIG Next? - Please Position ASAP!

        As the leaders of the mortgage bubble continue to hit the wall, the importance of repositioning your assets into the “real” economy and out of a “bubble” economy is urgent.
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        It is never too late to take charge of your financial situation. Every action counts. It is never too late to start. I have every confidence that you can do whatever needs to be done. We will continue to do our best to support and help.

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