iTulip Forecasts since 1998

[FRED]

This thread tracks iTulip forecasts made since the site was founded in 1998:

• November 1998: Warns on Internet Bubble
• August 1999: No Y2K Disaster
• November 1999: How the Internet Bubble Will End
• March 2000: Internet Bubble Top
• April 2000: A Bear Market is Born
• January 2001: Post-Bubble Recession Q1
  
• September 2001: Gold Price Bottom at US$270
• August 2002: Warns of Housing Bubble
• January 2004: How Housing Bubble will End
• January 2005: Housing Bubble Correction
• June 2005: Housing Bubble Top
• October 2006: Recession by Q4 2007
• July 2007: Before the Stroke of Midnight
• December 2007: Time at last to short the stock market
• June 2008: Time at last to short commercial real estate

[friendly_jacek]

Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

How about the short bonds call?

[FRED]

Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

How about the short bonds call?

We have not made a short 10 year Treasury Bonds call yet. We are waiting for confirmation of a March 2008 opinion of one of our advisers.

[metalman]

Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

metals say... no. if bond yields go up why is gold going up?

[GRG55]

Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

metals say... no. if bond yields go up why is gold going up?

Could it be that both begin to price in future inflation?

[Jim Nickerson]

Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

metals say... no. if bond yields go up why is gold going up?

10 Yr Note (yield) See Full Interactive Chart 10-Yr Note Yield 1-Mo Bill Yield 3-Mo Bill Yield 6-Mo Bill Yield 2-Yr Note Yield 5-Yr Note Yield 30-Yr Bond Yield DJ Corporate Bond Bond Buyer Muni Bond DJ CBOT Treasury -------- DJ Industrial Average Nasdaq Composite S&P 500 Russell 2000 -------- DJ World ex US DJ Asia Pacific Nikkei 225 DJ Stoxx 50 FTSE 100 DJ Americas Sao Paulo Bovespa

30-Yr Bond Yield See Full Interactive Chart

2-Yr Note Yield See Full Interactive Chart

link to 6 month $GOLD chart: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GO...69&a=129594324

Could it be that both begin to price in future inflation?

I don't know what time frame you guys are referencing, but it seems for the past two weeks, since 6/13/08, rates are down while $GOLD is up a bit.

Since mid-March to now, yields are up, and $GOLD is down. Sorry for the chart duplication, can't seem to delete the extras.

[GRG55]

Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

I don't know what time frame you guys are referencing, but it seems for the past two weeks, since 6/13/08, rates are down while $GOLD is up a bit.

Since mid-March to now, yields are up, and $GOLD is down. Sorry for the chart duplication, can't seem to delete the extras.

I was looking out to a point, perhaps not too far off, where bonds [finally] start to price in the inflation that is already reflected in food, fuel and so much else.

[jk]

Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

I was looking out to a point, perhaps not too far off, where bonds [finally] start to price in the inflation that is already reflected in food, fuel and so much else.

bonds are being supported by a flight to safety and the requirement for many pension managers that they match durations of their assets and liabilities. but it's hard to see how that's enough to keep long treasuries so strong. i've seen a few commentators calling shorting long teasuries "the trade of the century." i'm holding some puts on tlt, but so far no go.

[touchring]

Re: iTulip Forecasts since 1998

Is there an ETF that shorts commercial real estate. Why make the call now and not early this year?

If there was one in April 2008: Time to short financials, that will be perfect. SKF up 45%-50% since April.