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Testing the Merits of Technical Analysis

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  • Testing the Merits of Technical Analysis

    Testing the Meritcs of Technical Analysis

    This thread is for tracking a series of surveys we will take for the purpose of testing the accuracy of Technical Analysis versus other methods of short term market forecasting. To make the process entertaining, the surveys are presented as a series of Competitions.

    Technical Analysis Test #1: Spot Gold Price April 7, 2008?

    This competition is the first of many for iTulip community members to determine, once and for all, the merits of Technical Analysis (TA).

    This first survey is a test to learn what we still have to work out in terms of the design of the surveys to make these competitions a compelling test of the efficacy of TA.

    Our approach is to ask participating members to choose whether the price of the item featured in the contest will be higher or lower within the specified time frame, in the current instance the price of gold one week from the start date of the contest.

    The participating member indicates whether the price will be higher or lower and whether they decided based on TA or some other method. Alternative methods may include flipping a coin, guessing, asking your dog (one bark for up, two for down), or any other method of your choosing.

    The voting will close the same day that the competition is opened.

    Winning participants win 10,000 iTulip credits and be notified by internal forum email.

    Again, this first competition is a test. Thank you for your participation.
    Ed.

  • #2
    Re: Testing the Merits of Technical Analysis

    Directional prediction doesn't necessarily relate to profitability...

    For instance if support/resistance/voodoo levels suggest a stock at 50 will either move to 56 or 48, but the chances are 50-50, you would still prefer to be long.
    It's Economics vs Thermodynamics. Thermodynamics wins.

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    • #3
      Re: are there any technical analysts here?

      I don't think there are -
      I've not read anything on iTulip about bollinger cans and stochastics and histrionics and RSI (lots of TAs seem to get Repetitive Strain, what's up widdat?)

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