Options Question and Education

[EasternBelle]

Dear options knowledgeable iTulipers,

as EJ announced a short selling opportunity coming up at some point in the future I would like to educate myself this time around so as to be able to profit via the 'simple' strategy of buying a market put, rather an as in the past not being in the market.

To that end I studied various online resources about how these puts work and got a general idea of the basics I think. When going onto my trading platform though and seeing all the available choices I went blank. What to do, which strike price and expiry to choose. Some more reading revealed that there is indeed where the crux of the matter seems to lay.

Below are the choices I have identified with some of their pros and cons as I understand them.

1. buy a put option with a long expiry and which is in the money. This options' disadvantage is that it tends to be very expensive, so one has to outlay a comparatively high amount of money. Although the option is ITM, due to its high price the breakeven point is around the current market index, but it seems a 'safer' bet due to the fact that there is still a lot of time available to trade the option before expiry and it seems options with a longer life are less prone to volatility? (is this correct)

2. Buy a put option that is OTM but still within a sensible margin to being ATM (online resources say to look at the underlying index' volatility and make sure that the option is within range of that volatility figure). These puts are quite a bit cheaper but somehow considered more risky, especially if they don't have a long life left. So choice to is really twofold OTM put with long or short life.

If EJ where to say short the market today what would you do? Please feel free to comment on any other aspects of options, but spare me the Greeks as they seem to evade me at the moment :-)

I am also finding it hard to assess the importance of open interest and volume. If they are low would that mean that I would potentially not find a buyer if I want to close out the possition once the market has moved?
When one buys and sells shares, there is always a bid/ask value. When l looked at my trading platform not all options seemed to have that. So how am I supposed to know the value for which to buy/sell, especially when the markets are in upheaval?

Many of the online resources state that rookies often loose when trading options although the market moves in the right direction for them. They seem to be making mistakes related to the above mentioned issues.

Please feel free to also give recommendations on learning materials, online courses etc. There is so much out there its difficult to ascertain whether a website is genuine in wanting to educate or rather wants you trade and buy their trading method or worse be on the other end of it!

Thank you

EasternBelle

[seobook]

Re: Options Question and Education

Not an options trading guru by any stretch of the imagination, so I must disclaim that ;)

in fact, I would describe myself as "newbie central" in the whole genre, but in terms of this...

buy a put option with a long expiry and which is in the money. This options' disadvantage is that it tends to be very expensive, so one has to outlay a comparatively high amount of money. Although the option is ITM, due to its high price the breakeven point is around the current market index, but it seems a 'safer' bet due to the fact that there is still a lot of time available to trade the option before expiry and it seems options with a longer life are less prone to volatility? (is this correct)

1.) slightly out of the money puts would give you a greater move / more bang for the buck for a given amount of capital at risk.
2.) if you are trading options & expect that you know something that the market doesn't know (eg: you see a recession coming that the market is unaware of) then greater volatility would be a good thing rather than a bad thing (as the volatility is likely to move in your direction).

I am also finding it hard to assess the importance of open interest and volume. If they are low would that mean that I would potentially not find a buyer if I want to close out the possition once the market has moved?

the more liquidity there is, generally the tighter the spread between buy & sell prices.

If EJ where to say short the market today what would you do? Please feel free to comment on any other aspects of options, but spare me the Greeks as they seem to evade me at the moment :-)

in addition to buying PUT options, some folks might short the market by short selling individual stocks or other securities.
http://www.investopedia.com/universi...rtselling1.asp
the difference between short selling & options is that with buying a put option, you can't lose more than your initial investment but it has a firm expiration date. with short selling if the stock moves in the other direction you can be forced to cover at a far greater loss than the initial investment.

some individual stocks & some sectors have a significantly higher beta than the market overall. so if you see a stock trading at a 300x P/E ratio based on the allure of great growth & you expect growth rates to plummet, then that could be a good candidate for buying put options on. though since options do expire, you still have to time it, as you are paying for the time value of a move (the longer out the option is for the greater the premium)

another way to take advantage of a declining market would be to write call option for securities you already own that you do not desire to sell.

I haven't sold short any stocks or wrote any options contracts, but hopefully the above is somewhat helpful.

[AK]

Re: Options Question and Education

I found this course to be useful to learn the basics.... https://itunes.apple.com/us/itunes-u...ns/id490504839.

[charliebrown]

Re: Options Question and Education

#1 yes longer dated itm options are less volatile then shorter dated one. The reason being is that the time premium makes up a larger portion of the options price. Even though the price may swing, from one day to the next, the time premium will not move as much.

#2 if you do buy an OTM put and the underlying does not move, you will lose all of your money.

You could sell call option along with your put option. That would lower the cost of the put option, but if the underlying went in the wrong direction you could lose much more than your initial investment.

If EJ said short the market today, I would just sell off some of my stocks and thus lowering my equity risk.

I have tried shorting this market several times with options and have basically not made much money because of its generally rising nature, and I did not get my timing right. I lost 3% in premiums for several iterations, then made it back
when the market did go down. Overall a break even trade with a lot of time spent.

One thing I tried and might be a good thing to try is a calendar spread. For example ...
Buy a aug xyz 100 put for $3.00. Then sell a May 100 put for $1.00. If no action repeat selling a June, then July put
Now your August 100 put has been paid for if the market does not tank, you now have an Aug 100 put on xyz for free.
If xyz launches upward you are out $2.00, if it crashes you will be out $2.00 too.

You can get a better explanation of a calendar spread on the web.

This options strategy takes a lot of work and watching. It is one way to reduce your risk and if your timing is right hit
the jackpot.

[Chris]

Re: Options Question and Education

Also consider that if you bought a put that became deeply in the money, that you may also not find a buyer as the option nears expiry. If your instrument is not cash settled then you'll end up with shares.

You may also want to look at trading the volatility rather than taking a directional bet but this requires a bit more work.

[Chris]

Re: Options Question and Education

One other thing; unless you have a lot of experience it is best not to trade options with a month or less until expiry. The greeks will not be working in your favour if you hold a long position.

[EasternBelle]

Re: Options Question and Education

Thanks to all for their advice.
EasternBelle

[rogermexico]

Re: Options Question and Education

Dear options knowledgeable iTulipers,

as EJ announced a short selling opportunity coming up at some point in the future I would like to educate myself this time around so as to be able to profit via the 'simple' strategy of buying a market put, rather an as in the past not being in the market.

To that end I studied various online resources about how these puts work and got a general idea of the basics I think. When going onto my trading platform though and seeing all the available choices I went blank. What to do, which strike price and expiry to choose. Some more reading revealed that there is indeed where the crux of the matter seems to lay.

Below are the choices I have identified with some of their pros and cons as I understand them.

1. buy a put option with a long expiry and which is in the money. This options' disadvantage is that it tends to be very expensive, so one has to outlay a comparatively high amount of money. Although the option is ITM, due to its high price the breakeven point is around the current market index, but it seems a 'safer' bet due to the fact that there is still a lot of time available to trade the option before expiry and it seems options with a longer life are less prone to volatility? (is this correct)

2. Buy a put option that is OTM but still within a sensible margin to being ATM (online resources say to look at the underlying index' volatility and make sure that the option is within range of that volatility figure). These puts are quite a bit cheaper but somehow considered more risky, especially if they don't have a long life left. So choice to is really twofold OTM put with long or short life.

If EJ where to say short the market today what would you do? Please feel free to comment on any other aspects of options, but spare me the Greeks as they seem to evade me at the moment :-)

I am also finding it hard to assess the importance of open interest and volume. If they are low would that mean that I would potentially not find a buyer if I want to close out the possition once the market has moved?
When one buys and sells shares, there is always a bid/ask value. When l looked at my trading platform not all options seemed to have that. So how am I supposed to know the value for which to buy/sell, especially when the markets are in upheaval?

Many of the online resources state that rookies often loose when trading options although the market moves in the right direction for them. They seem to be making mistakes related to the above mentioned issues.

Please feel free to also give recommendations on learning materials, online courses etc. There is so much out there its difficult to ascertain whether a website is genuine in wanting to educate or rather wants you trade and buy their trading method or worse be on the other end of it!

Thank you

EasternBelle

If you are a newbie to shorting I highly recommend either directly selling short a broad market ETF like the SPDR, or better yet selling the S&P 500 via futures contracts, which are much simpler to understand than options and also are taxed at favorable rates for even the shortest trades.

I used futures during the 2007-2008 market selloff to capture over half of the 50% decline from 1500 on the S and P. Taxed at 60% long term and 40% short term rates even though all postions were held on the month or week time scale.

Futures are deeply liquid and have friction (spreads and trading costs) of almost zero compared to options. Use mini contracts or larger standard comex contracts depending on your resources.

In my opinion, almost everyone I see using options here on itulip would be better off and more successful using futures.

Options are best for options traders. Hedging and speculating on asset classes are much better done with futures.

[astonas]

Re: Options Question and Education

If you are a newbie to shorting I highly recommend either directly selling short a broad market ETF like the SPDR, or better yet selling the S&P 500 via futures contracts, which are much simpler to understand than options and also are taxed at favorable rates for even the shortest trades.

I used futures during the 2007-2008 market selloff to capture over half of the 50% decline from 1500 on the S and P. Taxed at 60% long term and 40% short term rates even though all postions were held on the month or week time scale.

Futures are deeply liquid and have friction (spreads and trading costs) of almost zero compared to options. Use mini contracts or larger standard comex contracts depending on your resources.

In my opinion, almost everyone I see using options here on itulip would be better off and more successful using futures.

Options are best for options traders. Hedging and speculating on asset classes are much better done with futures.

Thanks, rogermexico, for this clear advice. I'm sure it was trivial to you, but for some reason I had accumulated exactly the opposite impression, that futures contracts were more risky, with higher friction, and more complexity than options. As a consequence, I have learned (a very small bit) about options, and always assumed that futures were for bigger, smarter, and braver folks than I. It's great to know that might not be true!

So suddenly I'd like to learn more about futures. If I'm remembering right, you posted an extensive primer here once upon a time, which I didn't probe too deeply for the above reasons. Would you happen to remember where that thread was placed, or even what it might have been titled?


I was also reading another thread recently, which raised in m mind some specific questions, some of which might be too unusual to have made it into your general writings. (And of course, if you have already covered these concerns in depth in your earlier primer, I'll be happy to read it there rather than making you go through it again for me.)



I was having trouble understanding the MFGlobal collapse. Were the people who lost out on gold hedges there using futures, or options? Is there anything fundamental to either vehicle that makes it preferable in the event of an MFGlobal-type fraud or larger systemic collapse? Are both, for example, equally available for rehypothecation, and subject to the same levels of counterparty risks in extreme market conditions?

How does one assess and value the risk of being forced to settle in cash vs. obtaining physical delivery for futures? For that matter how does one account for any risk that the warehouse paperwork that indicates theoretical ownership may not be honored in practice? How exactly does that work? If I buy gold for future delivery, can I show up at the door of the warehouse one day with my papers, and walk away with a bar of gold in my bag? Does the gold get shipped to me?

Don't misunderstand me, I get that futures are usually used for hedging, and settling in cash is usually what people do, with offsetting purchases or sales of physical being conducted locally. But how would it work if the market shifted (say for example, local physical gold became impossible to find) and one decided the best thing to do was to actually collect the good that one had a contract to buy?

In short, are futures still the best answer for everyone when TSHTF, with many institutions all over the place looking like MF Global did, or worse?


Thanks in advance for your time, and expertise. I know there's a barrage of questions above, so if you'd rather just skip to the last one, I'd completely understand.

[Chris]

Re: Options Question and Education

I agree with rogermexico for the most part but there is a steep margin cost associated with holding a short futures position - especially when the trade period is open ended (unless you have in mind a time frame to enter and exit this position?).

There is a little bit of expense associated with this alternative but you have more time to be correct; buy a long put synthetic straddle.



To do this you go long the S&P ETF for 100 shares. This gives you your long exposure in the underlying.

At the same time, purchase two at-the-money puts expiring in three months. This sets up your synthetic straddle.

Remember, an option gives you the right but not the obligation to purchase 100 shares of the underlying so we need two puts (equivalent to 200 shares) for this trade. If you wanted to purchase only 50 shares of SPY (for example) then you only need to buy one put.

If the market falls steeply, you make money from the puts which can be sold before there is one month remaining until expiry. Now you are left holding a long position in the S&P and you have no time constraints on the instrument. So hold the position until it rises again and then sell for breakeven or profit.

If the market rises steeply, you sell the long position in the shares and are left holding your puts. In the worst case, the market does not fall during the three month period and you lose the premium paid for those puts. Best case, the market falls steeply and the puts are also deep in-the-money.

If nothing happens after two - two and a half months , liquidate all positions and wait for a better entry.

There is a wide breakeven for this trade but if you expect fireworks similar to the 2008 collapse then I see no problem with taking on that small additional risk. The nice feature of this trade is that your risk is capped but your potential profit is uncapped.

I'll post an example spreadsheet later.

[EasternBelle]

Re: Options Question and Education

Chris, this sounds interesting i will try to understand the trade better, could you maybe expand on the advantages you see in making this trade?
Thank you, EasternBelle

[EasternBelle]

Re: Options Question and Education

Rogermexico, i am not in the us and my banking and trading platforms dont support trading in futures. I had to fill in a test for the platforms that i am using so that the bank/broker opened the options platform. In one case i failed to use it for the next 12 months and then the use was withdrawn and i have had to apply again! Depending which country one lives in it can be difficult to get access to a futures platform. A bit like in the us they want you to be a certified investor to let you invest in private equity. Each country seems to have their own ways in making it difficult for middle class people to take charge of their financial decisions in theway they like. But i will try and look into what it takes to get into the futures platforms, thanks for the hint.
EasternBelle

[rogermexico]

Re: Options Question and Education

Thanks, rogermexico, for this clear advice. I'm sure it was trivial to you, but for some reason I had accumulated exactly the opposite impression, that futures contracts were more risky, with higher friction, and more complexity than options. As a consequence, I have learned (a very small bit) about options, and always assumed that futures were for bigger, smarter, and braver folks than I. It's great to know that might not be true!

So suddenly I'd like to learn more about futures. If I'm remembering right, you posted an extensive primer here once upon a time, which I didn't probe too deeply for the above reasons. Would you happen to remember where that thread was placed, or even what it might have been titled?

Futures for the beginner: http://www.itulip.com/forums/showthr...990#post234990

I was also reading another thread recently, which raised in m mind some specific questions, some of which might be too unusual to have made it into your general writings. (And of course, if you have already covered these concerns in depth in your earlier primer, I'll be happy to read it there rather than making you go through it again for me.)


I was having trouble understanding the MFGlobal collapse. Were the people who lost out on gold hedges there using futures, or options? Is there anything fundamental to either vehicle that makes it preferable in the event of an MFGlobal-type fraud or larger systemic collapse? Are both, for example, equally available for rehypothecation, and subject to the same levels of counterparty risks in extreme market conditions?

How does one assess and value the risk of being forced to settle in cash vs. obtaining physical delivery for futures? For that matter how does one account for any risk that the warehouse paperwork that indicates theoretical ownership may not be honored in practice? How exactly does that work? If I buy gold for future delivery, can I show up at the door of the warehouse one day with my papers, and walk away with a bar of gold in my bag? Does the gold get shipped to me?

I thought you might have asked the same questions last time I posted on this, but perhaps it was someone else. In any case, my general view is that MF global is to futures as the boston marathon is to pressure-cooker-based IEDS. There is nothing inherent in futures as a class that has anything to do with theft. Theft can occur with any fiduciary that is inclined to thieve, whether the fiduciary holds cash, stocks, bonds metals or derivatives like futures or options. Admixing customer assets with house assets and then leveraging them is the issue with MF global, the losses to investors had nothing to do with futures as an asset.

Your other questions imply I might have endorsed futures in some SHTF context. Let me be clear, I don't endorse or not endorse any particular organ of the entire paper and digital financial universe as being any more sound than any other in some unforseeable doomsday scenario.

The issue I see is given that you have a marginable brokerage account and given that you want to make paper profits when some event like a stock market crash is likely. I find futures simpler and less expensive and easier to understand than relatively complicated hedging strategies with options.

Let me give an example. You have a brokerage account with 1 M in it. If you have roughly 20,000 in cash in your account (2% of the 1M) then you can go short one S and P contract which is worth just under $400,000. You are now short the S and P with 40% of your 1M account. You pay no margin interest, the trade costs about $10 each way, and if you look at the S and P futures curve, you will see that you can hold this contract for months with little change in the contract price compared to the huge time decay with options. You earn $250 x each dollar the contract drops or lose $250 for each dollar the contract rises in price. If you have one of the near contracts, this is essentially identical to shorting the S and P with no margin interest paid. I challenge anyone to show me an example of how to do this with less costs - less friction. Or how to do it with more liquidity. NOTHING is more liquid and has lower spreads than index futures. NOTHING.

Did I mention the tax advantages? I think I did. 60/40 long term/short term vs all short term for trades held less than one year.

Is your liability really unlimited? Of course not. Not in the real world outside of theory. If stocks go to zero, then you made 400K If they go up 100% then you lose 400K when you cover your position or at expiration. Your losses are only infinite if you think stocks can go up infinitely and who think they will be too dumb to close their position soon enough. Who thinks this? People who think high schoolers will soon run one minute miles?

By comparison it is true that if you buy an option, you are guaranteed to lose no more than what you paid for the option, but you are also much more likely to lose money than by taking the same directional bet with a futures contract. The mathematics of the options market demand this the same way the mathematics of a casino demand that slots have the worst odds.

No need to know in or out of the money, no black-shoales equation, no giant spreads, no shitty liquidity when you want to close your position, no paying for time premium (talking about index futures here, contango with commodities is a different story - or course there are no options on commodities anyway! - just options on commodity futures)

I actually think the relative ease of finding options-enabled brokerage accounts versus futures enabled ones is the same reason its easy to find slot machines in casinos. Options trading is profitable for brokerage houses the same way slot machines are. And your odds are much better at the high stakes poker table of futures contracts. Think about it!

Don't misunderstand me, I get that futures are usually used for hedging, and settling in cash is usually what people do, with offsetting purchases or sales of physical being conducted locally. But how would it work if the market shifted (say for example, local physical gold became impossible to find) and one decided the best thing to do was to actually collect the good that one had a contract to buy?

I am not sure what gold has to do with anything in the context of shorting the stock market. If you are concerned about the dreaded paper vs physical decoupling, then by all means bury krugs and eagles in a safe place under cover of darkness. OTOH, if you think the financial system framework with its ones and zeros will survive the reset of the IMS the way it survived 2008 ( I do, in case it is not clear from my writings) then use futures to lock in high gold prices by selling at the top as a hedge against your physical. Do you expect to unload 100s of physical coins instantaneously at good prices? Good luck with that.

In short, are futures still the best answer for everyone when TSHTF, with many institutions all over the place looking like MF Global did, or worse?

I am not sure what your concept of SHTF is, but mine is a Janszen scenario posited sovereign debt crisis and high gold prices, not dissolution of the entire framework of the monetary system and fallback to barter and oxen drawn mercedes. Your best bet to have your digital assets safe, be they stocks, cash, commodities futures or whatever, is to have them held in an account managed my someone you trust. That trust should be the same now as in the future. And for my part, I trust my assets in my futures enabled brokerage account more than I do my bank.

I don't see "lots of institutions looking like MF global" in the discount brokerage business. My brokerage is owned by Schwab, which is not an investment bank and has no prop trading desk at all. They can't be using my assets because they don't do thier own trading or underwriting or any investment banking stuff like a leveraged investment bank. Unlike a bank, it does not depend on lending money into existence nor would it be susceptible to a run - as there is no borrow short and lend long bank scam involved. It claims to hold my assets in my account, and I believe they do.

Again, if you think SHTF means the digits all simply disappear, then hold physical PMs. There would be no differentiating between futures contracts, options, ETFs or even stocks if you think that will happen. And if not, then all these various stocks, bonds and derivatives are likely to be equally sound in terms of contract and counterparty risk, IMO.

Thanks in advance for your time, and expertise. I know there's a barrage of questions above, so if you'd rather just skip to the last one, I'd completely understand.

No problem

[rogermexico]

Re: Options Question and Education

I agree with rogermexico for the most part but there is a steep margin cost associated with holding a short futures position - especially when the trade period is open ended (unless you have in mind a time frame to enter and exit this position?).

There is a little bit of expense associated with this alternative but you have more time to be correct; buy a long put synthetic straddle.



To do this you go long the S&P ETF for 100 shares. This gives you your long exposure in the underlying.

At the same time, purchase two at-the-money puts expiring in three months. This sets up your synthetic straddle.

Remember, an option gives you the right but not the obligation to purchase 100 shares of the underlying so we need two puts (equivalent to 200 shares) for this trade. If you wanted to purchase only 50 shares of SPY (for example) then you only need to buy one put.

If the market falls steeply, you make money from the puts which can be sold before there is one month remaining until expiry. Now you are left holding a long position in the S&P and you have no time constraints on the instrument. So hold the position until it rises again and then sell for breakeven or profit.

If the market rises steeply, you sell the long position in the shares and are left holding your puts. In the worst case, the market does not fall during the three month period and you lose the premium paid for those puts. Best case, the market falls steeply and the puts are also deep in-the-money.

If nothing happens after two - two and a half months , liquidate all positions and wait for a better entry.

There is a wide breakeven for this trade but if you expect fireworks similar to the 2008 collapse then I see no problem with taking on that small additional risk. The nice feature of this trade is that your risk is capped but your potential profit is uncapped.

I'll post an example spreadsheet later.

Steep margin cost? I don't follow. See my answer to astonas. Takes 20 K cash to control 400K of S and P 500 index futures.

Futures are dead simple for shorting.

Step one sell contract

Step two buy contract (close position)

Nothing synthetic required.

[astonas]

Re: Options Question and Education

Thanks again, rogermexico, for your detailed help. I can see several places where I was simply misunderstanding things, including some pretty basic ones. You've cleared them up pretty well, though.

Let me give an example. You have a brokerage account with 1 M in it. If you have roughly 20,000 in cash in your account (2% of the 1M) then you can go short one S and P contract which is worth just under $400,000. You are now short the S and P with 40% of your 1M account. You pay no margin interest, the trade costs about $10 each way, and if you look at the S and P futures curve, you will see that you can hold this contract for months with little change in the contract price compared to the huge time decay with options. You earn $250 x each dollar the contract drops or lose $250 for each dollar the contract rises in price. If you have one of the near contracts, this is essentially identical to shorting the S and P with no margin interest paid. I challenge anyone to show me an example of how to do this with less costs - less friction. Or how to do it with more liquidity. NOTHING is more liquid and has lower spreads than index futures. NOTHING.

(You also mention in your primer that 1 contract represents an obligation to provide 1000 oz. gold at a given price.)


I'd remembered that you had mentioned a mini-contract in one of your earlier posts, and went hunting around for more info. I thought I'd provide the information here for the benefit of others who might have a similar not-quite-yet-a-millionaire problem. ;-)

There are 44 different E-mini futures contracts, which are designed to have much smaller multipliers, for smaller traders. In the case of both the S&P and gold, the multiplier is 50, instead of the standard 1000.

So, an e-mini contract would allow an investor to speculate on 50 oz. of gold, with an initial margin of $3,376, and a maintenance margin of $2,500. I have no idea about whether these are still a good deal (if the trading friction and contract costs scale well) though I suspect rogermexico could rattle that off.

I'd suspect there's not many choices for those who don't have an account worth even the ~$71k associated with 50 oz. of gold, but it is nice to know you don't have to work in increments of ~$1.4M+. Even if one did have that much free, one might in cases prefer a more incremental speculation strategy.