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Saturday, April 25, 2009 (The Dallas Morning News - By LAURENCE ILIF)
Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard said public and private mass events would be suspended in coming days but suggested that nightclubs or similar private businesses would not be affected.
``I'm asking the population to avoid contacts to the extent possible and activities with agglomerations of people. We are not going to suspend economic activities, but we are trying to avoid greater contacts,'' he said at a news conference.
``I'm asking the population to avoid contacts to the extent possible and activities with agglomerations of people. We are not going to suspend economic activities, but we are trying to avoid greater contacts,'' he said at a news conference.
"What we have to do is avoid the propagation of the virus, its exponential growth, because it's a new virus," he said.
"The next 10 days will be strategic in order to win the battle."
AntiSpin: The Mayor in his statement repeated that phrase "economic activities" at least six times in his one minute speech. In doing so he made his government's priorities abundantly clear: public health risk be damned, tax revenue generating economic activities must go on.
The slowness of the WHO to raise the threat level to acknowledge human to human transmission of the new swine flu a full 19 days after it was proven recalls the politicized response of authorities in the early days of the influenza pandemic that peaked in 1918. Desperate to increase the ranks of servicemen to fight the war, they downplayed the risk of placing thousands of men together in barracks where infection spread unabated. Half of the died. Then they filled the barracks again. Then half of those died. Then they filled them once again. Many thousands died by such criminal negligence. (Read thegreatinfluenza for details.)
Since the Mayor's speech was published on April 25, the number of reported cases of swine flu has in fact grown exponentially. So far, the Mayor's hope of a slowing spread of infection has not been fulfilled by suspension of non-economic activities, such as soccer games. Later schools were closed.
Such incrementalism of the response imimics the response taken by authorities during the last pandemic.
Yet the good Mayor need not worry that exponential growth in swine flu infections will continue for the full ten days from his speech, for if that were to happen then more than 2,500,000 will be ill and 161,792 dead, assuming a mortality rate of 6%.
Obviously, well before that many cases arise, the airports will be shut down and other major vectors of transmission cut off. If for some reason they are not, because health authorities continue to put politics before public health and an exponential growth in new infections continues, 77% of the world's population will be ill and more than 300 million dead by May 16, 2009.
That's taking the word "exponential" literally. This is not how pandemics occur -- in a continuous rise -- but rather in waves.
The true mortality rate is not known. It appears to be lower than 6% outside of Mexico, and in any case will change over time. But it should be remembered that the mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic was 2.5% and at that rate killed 40 million.
We are shocked by the slow response of authorities to this threat, and the political overtones of the response. Let's hope that this virus peters out on its own and does not intensify in waves as the 1918 pandemic did due to the short sightedness of politicians who, as usual, put the short term ahead of long term. In this case long term may be sooner than they think.
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The true mortality rate is not known. It appears to be lower than 6% outside of Mexico, and in any case will change over time. But it should be remembered that the mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic was 2.5% and at that rate killed 40 million.
We are shocked by the slow response of authorities to this threat, and the political overtones of the response. Let's hope that this virus peters out on its own and does not intensify in waves as the 1918 pandemic did due to the short sightedness of politicians who, as usual, put the short term ahead of long term. In this case long term may be sooner than they think.
iTulip Select: The Investment Thesis for the Next Cycle™
__________________________________________________
To receive the iTulip Newsletter or iTulip Alerts, Join our FREE Email Mailing List
Copyright © iTulip, Inc. 1998 - 2007 All Rights Reserved
All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Nothing appearing on this website should be considered a recommendation to buy or to sell any security or related financial instrument. iTulip, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. Full Disclaimer
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