In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

[Spartacus]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

commentary on RGE that mentioned how a firm studied Puplava's picks and concluded that his stock market performance was just not good.

Puplava manages money privately, I don't think he puts out any specific testable stock picks. I'd be curious to know how this stock tracker found out Puplava's picks.
EDIT: now I've recalled that on several occasions P's claimed that the regulations governing him prevent him from publicly discussing his stock picks. On occasions where we've found out his picks, it's because he was required to make his position publicly known, like having to file paperwork in Ontario about his involvement in Kimber.

There was the incident where he chortled about having gotten out of one of the markets (I forget which -Silver, IIRC) just before a sharp drop, but then the market rebounded sharply and apparently he got back in at a "loss".

One or 2 stocks have slipped out. It's hard to hide your Silver picks, for example - there are only so many Silver producers. I've not rigorously tracked all the stocks that slip out once in a while, but from what I remember - based on the industries he's talked about, for example, they've done extremely well.

Uranium, Gold, Silver and Petroleum producers over the last 4 years - there have not been any much better places to be invested.

[tree]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

Are unemployment statistics (as measured by the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics) a valid barometer of citizens' well being? I always thought they weren't, what with part-time work, underpaid work, etc., but then an economist I respect said they were. Thoughts?

[Spartacus]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

Yep. And to boot, that show of his is 1/3 finance, 1/3 x-files, 1/3 captain kangaroo.

The interviews are awesome. I found Saber and Taleb through those. I was high on Sornette for a while too.

BUT ...

Have you ever been able to tell which 1/3rd is which?

I never have.

OH, and
You forgot the other 3/4, the "axe-grinding" segment, (which is mixed in with all the other segments).

And if you look up Loeffler, you'll see some other interesting[*] stuff ... When I first came across that it was like finding out that Gary North is a Christian Reconstructionist (which he never mentioned, ever, while pushing his y2k paranoia).
[*] hidden agenda? NOT US? What hidden agenda?

[bart]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

Puplava manages money privately, I don't think he puts out any specific testable stock picks. I'd be curious to know how this stock tracker found out Puplava's picks.

All stock positions & holdings are shown on the most recent filing for Puplava Financial Services/Inc

http://www.secinfo.com/d19eV3.uc.htm

[dbarberic]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

Attached is the relevant part of the chapter from Dr. Langdana's book, Macroeconomic Policy Demystifying Monetary and Fiscal Policyhttp://www.assoc-amazon.com/e/ir?t=w...1&a=1402071469 reprinted with permission of the author. Analysis to follow.

From Dr. Langdana's book, Macroeconomic Policy Demystifying Monetary and Fiscal Policy;

“Another reason for inversion could be simply the fact that the demand for long term borrowing may have gone down”.

This still does not make sense to me. I would have thought that a lack of demand for long term borrowing would cause interest rates to increase, not go down. I thought that interest rates rise and fall based on demand. If there are not enough investors to purchase long term bonds, wouldn’t the interest rate increase until the rate was high enough to entice investors to purchase the bonds? How does this show a forecast for hyper-inflation?
Unless….. Foreign buyers of bonds are already stepping away from the table and the Fed is already monetizing the debit, thus building instant demand for long term bonds and keeping the long rate artificially low and the yield curve inverted. Is this what EJ is implying?

:confused:

[Charles Mackay]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

The REITS have been soaring in almost vertical moves ever since that mid 2005 bubble top call ...while the residential bubble has rolled over. I wonder why the dichotomy there? Take a look at the REIT ETFs... VNQ, IYR, AVB, ASN

[bart]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

...
Anyone got consumer confidence data from Summer of 1929?
...

1/1/1929 100.0
2/1/1929 99.8
3/1/1929 99.3
4/1/1929 100.4
5/1/1929 100.0
6/1/1929 98.4
7/1/1929 102.4
8/1/1929 100.6
9/1/1929 98.8
10/1/1929 97.9
11/1/1929 88.9
12/1/1929 89.1
1/1/1930 86.1
2/1/1930 87.8
3/1/1930 85.3
4/1/1930 87.0
5/1/1930 85.6
6/1/1930 83.0
7/1/1930 80.8
8/1/1930 77.9
9/1/1930 79.2
10/1/1930 76.8
11/1/1930 73.9
12/1/1930 72.9
1/1/1931 69.7
2/1/1931 74.3
3/1/1931 74.4
4/1/1931 72.9
5/1/1931 73.7
6/1/1931 70.5
7/1/1931 69.6
8/1/1931 67.0
9/1/1931 64.4
10/1/1931 62.4
11/1/1931 61.5
12/1/1931 59.3

[Green Bear]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

Read what you will into this, the Federal reserves expert on banking and risk management is bailing, before her term expires in 2011.

WASHINGTON: Susan Bies, who has been a governor at the Federal Reserve since 2001, announced Friday that she will leave at the end of March, giving President George W. Bush a fresh opportunity to put his stamp on the central bank.

Bies, 59, said she plans to spend more time with her family.

With her expertise in banking and risk management, Bies has played at key role in shaping regulatory policy at the Fed, which is responsible for making sure the U.S. financial system remains sound. That is also an important ingredient to the country's economic health.

With Bies' departure, Bush will have a total of two vacancies to fill on the central bank, whose policy affects interest rates and thus influences economic activity.

The president appointed Bies as well as the rest of the current members on the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors, including chairman Ben Bernanke.
more>>>

Susan Bies to leave U.S. central bank at the end of March
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/...al-Reserve.php

[EJ]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

I'd be leaving, too.

[WDCRob]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

1/1/1929 100.0
2/1/1929 99.8
3/1/1929 99.3
4/1/1929 100.4
5/1/1929 100.0
6/1/1929 98.4
7/1/1929 102.4
8/1/1929 100.6
9/1/1929 98.8
10/1/1929 97.9
11/1/1929 88.9

Ha! Had no idea that this series went back so far, so it was intended as a rhetorical question. Thanks Bart.

[jk]

Re: In Home-Lending Push, Banks Misjudged Risk

From Dr. Langdana's book, Macroeconomic Policy Demystifying Monetary and Fiscal Policy;
:p:p
This still does not make sense to me. I would have thought that a lack of demand for long term borrowing would cause interest rates to increase, not go down. I thought that interest rates rise and fall based on demand. If there are not enough investors to purchase long term bonds, wouldn’t the interest rate increase until the rate was high enough to entice investors to purchase the bonds? How does this show a forecast for hyper-inflation?
:p:p
Unless….. Foreign buyers of bonds are already stepping away from the table and the Fed is already monetizing the debit, thus building instant demand for long term bonds and keeping the long rate artificially low and the yield curve inverted. Is this what EJ is implying?

:confused:

low demand for borrowing means fewer bonds issued, thus bond prices rise and interest rates drop. don't forget, buying a bond is LENDING, so demand for bonds = demand to LEND. selling a bond is BORROWING, so supply of bonds = demand to BORROW.