Fed Funds spread signals crash

[bart]

Re: Fed Funds spread signals crash

Reflecting what's already happening, or predicting the next big move? If the latter, what sort of timeframe is it set up for?

Both.
No specific timeframe, but its not designed to respond or fire for minor events or drops.

Some of the dates it fired - week of 10/12/87, week ending 9/10/2001, week of 1/4/1988, over 4 times in late July and early August 1998, week ending 4/10/2000... well, you get the idea (and it blows it about 20% of the time too)...

[Tulpen]

Re: Fed Funds spread signals crash

Hmm, I ran a new query on the St Louis Fed page and included data till the 16th and I see nothing special. Where is the disconnect?

[bart]

Re: Fed Funds spread signals crash

Both.
No specific timeframe, but its not designed to respond or fire for minor events or drops.

Some of the dates it fired - week of 10/12/87, week ending 9/10/2001, week of 1/4/1988, over 4 times in late July and early August 1998, week ending 4/10/2000... well, you get the idea (and it blows it about 20% of the time too)...

False alarm - I got a bad data feed on one of the elements in the crash alert algorithm, and just discovered it. It did not fire.

[FRED]

Fed Funds spread signals crash: Another lucky guess

[grapejelly]

Re: Fed Funds spread signals crash: Another lucky guess

when's the crash happening?

[Guest]

Re: Fed Funds spread signals crash

Late this week, early next maybe (just plucking a date out of my hat here)? And all the white metals can very easily get taken down with it hard, except the gold?

[metalman]

Re: Fed Funds spread signals crash: Another lucky guess

when's the crash happening?

ha, ha. :cool:

This Is Not Your Father’s Market Crash.

Posted by David Gaffen


Rob Curran reports:
Almost every generation, it seems, has its October stock-market crash.
The cumulative losses of stocks since the plunge on Sept. 29 are comparable with those suffered in the October stock-market crashes of 1987 and 1929. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down about 9% this week, after a loss of 7.3% the week before. This Is Not Your Father's Market Crash (WSJ)

[ProdigyofZen]

Re: Fed Funds spread signals crash

I can't believe they discontinued the Federal Funds Target Rate series DFEDTAR on 12-15-2008 after this little episode. !!!!