Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

[rj1]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Fred, first of all, great analysis! in relation to impact on the US economy, wouldn't the key variable be energy use/income ?

Right on cue from the New York Times, percent of median income used on gasoline by county.

[metalman]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

and that's not all. catch this? (i'm getting better at posting stuff... not as good as rajiv, of course.)

The Great Seduction

By DAVID BROOKS
Published: June 10, 2008

The people who created this country built a moral structure around money. The Puritan legacy inhibited luxury and self-indulgence. Benjamin Franklin spread a practical gospel that emphasized hard work, temperance and frugality. Millions of parents, preachers, newspaper editors and teachers expounded the message. The result was quite remarkable.

David Brooks

The United States has been an affluent nation since its founding. But the country was, by and large, not corrupted by wealth. For centuries, it remained industrious, ambitious and frugal.

Over the past 30 years, much of that has been shredded. The social norms and institutions that encouraged frugality and spending what you earn have been undermined. The institutions that encourage debt and living for the moment have been strengthened. The country’s moral guardians are forever looking for decadence out of Hollywood and reality TV. But the most rampant decadence today is financial decadence, the trampling of decent norms about how to use and harness money.

Sixty-two scholars have signed on to a report by the Institute for American Values and other think tanks called, “For a New Thrift: Confronting the Debt Culture,” examining the results of all this. This may be damning with faint praise, but it’s one of the most important think-tank reports you’ll read this year. The Great Seduction

[Jay]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Eh, the first two mechanisms aren't that big, sure you might get killed in either of those accidents, but not likely. The third is a bit more of a crap shoot... highway and bike on the ground are a bad combo.

[vlj]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

yeh, but they're fuking dangerous.

No, motorcycles/motorcyclists are vulnerable, drivers of vehicles with more than two wheels are the one who are dangerous.

Thank you. The health care costs and productivity costs are huge in motor cycle accidents. A handful of closed head injuries and spinal cord injuries to the twenty something set is devastating.

Which pale in comparison to the health care and productivity costs from medical misadventures ...

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/11856.php

... but then, unlike engineers whose failures are visible to the world & analyzed post-failure, doctors get to bury their mistakes.

No activity is without risk. I've been riding motorcycles for over 40 years and that makes me an old biker and no fool because you don't get to be an old biker being a fool. These are wonderful machines and they currently (and more so in the future, will) play an important role in reducing fuel consumption while providing convenient and effective transportation at low cost, without esoteric technology and making efficient use of resources.

[Jay]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

No, motorcycles/motorcyclists are vulnerable, drivers of vehicles with more than two wheels are the one who are dangerous.



Which pale in comparison to the health care and productivity costs from medical misadventures ...

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/11856.php

... but then, unlike engineers whose failures are visible to the world & analyzed post-failure, doctors get to bury their mistakes.

No activity is without risk. I've been riding motorcycles for over 40 years and that makes me an old biker and no fool because you don't get to be an old biker being a fool. These are wonderful machines and they currently (and more so in the future, will) play an important role in reducing fuel consumption while providing convenient and effective transportation at low cost, without esoteric technology and making efficient use of resources.

Separate issues my man. Nothing personal, I'm sure you are an excellent rider. I see the other side and it isn't pretty.

[santafe2]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

You see, US demand is not driving energy prices, new demand outside the US is. Energy consumption per capita in the US hasn't fallen at all for decades even with more efficient appliances because prices have remained relatively low so there has been no incentive to conserve. Now prices are rising quickly and there's no painless way to adjust quickly as occurred in other countries over decades where energy was heavily taxed. The US has to make the adjustment quickly and painfully.

First, I apologize for my infrequent postings. There have been several great threads I'd love to comment on but I've only enough time to read a few and likely not enough time to really process all the ideas. That said, I have to post here as I don't agree with much of this thread.

The past is not prologue. Mass transit infrastructure will be subsidized and built in the US. Houses will be designed and built to near zero energy standards. Alternative transportation will be deployed. Work life will be reorganized to off-set the cost of mobile energy. None of this requires new technology only reorganization on the mobile energy front and retrofitting and regulation on the stationary front. If any nation is structured to turn on a dime and make these changes, we are.

I'm always cautious to prescribe many green living ideas here as I generally come off as preachy. Like an ex-smoker, I'm a reformed Angeleno. Once you leave the land of the 200 mile commute and the uber-silly existence that is LA, you can only laugh at yourself and anyone else for ever putting up with it. Most energy is a want, not a need.

The idea that an energy turn around in the US will be difficult is based on the trajectory of the past 25 years of cheap energy and pays too little attention to the capacity of the American people to mobilize and change. It will take leadership, but that may be on the horizon.

[metalman]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

First, I apologize for my infrequent postings. There have been several great threads I'd love to comment on but I've only enough time to read a few and likely not enough time to really process all the ideas. That said, I have to post here as I don't agree with much of this thread.

The past is not prologue. Mass transit infrastructure will be subsidized and built in the US. Houses will be designed and built to near zero energy standards. Alternative transportation will be deployed. Work life will be reorganized to off-set the cost of mobile energy. None of this requires new technology only reorganization on the mobile energy front and retrofitting and regulation on the stationary front. If any nation is structured to turn on a dime and make these changes, we are.

I'm always cautious to prescribe many green living ideas here as I generally come off as preachy. Like an ex-smoker, I'm a reformed Angeleno. Once you leave the land of the 200 mile commute and the uber-silly existence that is LA, you can only laugh at yourself and anyone else for ever putting up with it. Most energy is a want, not a need.

The idea that an energy turn around in the US will be difficult is based on the trajectory of the past 25 years of cheap energy and pays too little attention to the capacity of the American people to mobilize and change. It will take leadership, but that may be on the horizon.

you are listing off stuff i've heard said here, so i'm not sure you really disagree that much with this thread. you are listing at least 3 big asks:

1. requires leadership... such as...




2. only organization? forgetting katrina, are we?

3. only reorganization on the mobile energy front and retrofitting and regulation on the stationary front? really think it'll be easy to re-arrange transport so n% of commuters who are set up to do their jobs in big cities can work from home or close to home? that means restructuring nearly every co. all at once.

dude, you're a dreamer. give me an example of when anything close to what you are saying has ever happened, except maybe during wartime. maybe it was easy for you to stop commuting, and who wouldn't want to? but that doesn't mean it's easy for the whole pop of los angeles.

[Guest]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

... Most energy is a want, not a need. ... The idea that an energy turn around in the US will be difficult is based on the trajectory of the past 25 years of cheap energy and pays too little attention to the capacity of the American people to mobilize and change. It will take leadership ...

Don't know where you get the idea that America can 'turn on a dime' to accomodate $300 a barrel oil. There is no other OECD country who's entire infrastructure is as predicated on endless suburban sprawl as the US. No other country even comes close. How are you going to roll all that up and bring all these people closer in to reinvent themselves into a new commuterless economy? "Capacity of the American people to mobilize and change" is just a slogan in the context of the trillion dollar albatross they have slung around their necks in the form of half the housing stock in the nation, which is far flung and endless suburbia. That is a trillion dollars plus of national wealth tied up in a fabric of suburbia which represents one of most intractable and deadly contradictions to the cessation of cheap commuter miles. You walk away from that suburbia in an effort to reinvent the society without cheap lond distance transport, and you've just accomplished the effective demolition of half or more of the net worth of the country, not to mention decimated the equity of two thirds of the banks in the country. It is all rooted in real estate values - and the American version of real-estate is more sprawling and peak oil unfriendly than that of any other nation on earth. This has nothing to do with how capable Americans are to "mobilize for change". Their real estate is just going to continue to sit there, where it was planted originally. Inane comment.

[c1ue]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

I think building needed infrastructure is possible, but we're going to see even more erosion of personal liberty before it can occur.

If NIMBY can keep out power plants, I posit that much more drastic measures are needed before booting out tens of thousands of homeowners to make way for light rail/subway tracks.

Similarly draconian measures would be needed to reduce the numbers of cars on the road - simultaneous with teardown of single family standalone homes to be replaced with large Soviet style housing blocks.

Then there's the whole metering issue - there are still many areas where water isn't metered.

Besides shooting all the lawyers, there are many steps still needed before all this future potential mass transit/conservation benefit can be sown/reaped.

[Guest]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Besides shooting all the lawyers, there are many steps still needed before all this future ... conservation benefit can be sown/reaped.

I fully take your point C1ue. The shooting of all the lawyers may represent a significant new feedstock for biodiesel to mitigate the problem. Congress will need to fast-track that legislation after the petroleum price climbs past $200 a barrel. O brave new world. Diesel and biofuel stations will probably wind up with a separate pump (volatile or noxious fumes?) for "clarified essence of frivolous litigator bio-fuels". Any live specimens will be chased by "biofuel bounty hunters" and hauled in to the nearest "conversion facility". ... ... "No but seriously". This joke is a little risque', in that there must be an attorney or two in our community who's maybe getting a little red in the face reading this guff. All in good fun fellas. Whatsamatter, can't take a little poke in the ribs? Besides, C1ue started it, so don't look at me.

[GRG55]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

I fully take your point C1ue. The shooting of all the lawyers may represent a significant new feedstock for biodiesel to mitigate the problem. Congress will need to fast-track that legislation after the petroleum price climbs past $200 a barrel. O brave new world. Diesel and biofuel stations will probably wind up with a separate pump (volatile or noxious fumes?) for "clarified essence of frivolous litigator bio-fuels". Any live specimens will be chased by "biofuel bounty hunters" and hauled in to the nearest "conversion facility". ... ... "No but seriously". This joke is a little risque', in that there must be an attorney or two in our community who's maybe getting a little red in the face reading this guff. All in good fun fellas. Whatsamatter, can't take a little poke in the ribs? Besides, C1ue started it, so don't look at me.

I must say I am amazed how a debate about fuel prices has evolved into quoting Shakespeare. Where else but iTulip you gonna find that, eh?

Since "Gasoline is still dirt cheap in the USA" why not throw a bit more on this particular fire...

"The first thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers" - it's a lawyer joke

http://www.spectacle.org/797/finkel.html

[santafe2]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

2. only organization? forgetting katrina, are we?

A more rational point of view may be that Katrina has been viewed by our current administration as an opportunity to change New Orleans. As one example, review how the public school system was replaced with private charter schools. Katrina response has been highly organized, it's just not the response anyone expected.

[Andreuccio]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Motorcycle death rates doubled; supersport bikes the most dangerous

Riding motorcycles is commonly considered a dangerous recreational pursuit. Just how risky? Motorcyclist fatalities have more than doubled in 10 years and reached 4,810 in 2006, accounting for 11 percent of total highway fatalities, according to recent analysis by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) and Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI). In addition, 88,000 riders were injured last year, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

Motorcycle deaths are on the rise, while automotive fatalities are decreasing accoding to reports from IIHS, NHTSA, and other safety agencies. The trends do reflect an increasing number of younger motorcyclists piloting performance bikes, as well as continued improvement in car safety.

What motorcycles show the greatest risks?
Supersport bike riders have death rates that are four times greater than average for all motorcycle types, says the IIHS. These so-called rockets are essentially racing bikes modified for highway use. Engineered for speed, they typically have more horsepower per pound than other bikes. A 2006 model Kawasaki Ninja ZX-6R, for example, produces 111 horsepower and weighs 404 pounds. In contrast, the 2006 model Harley-Davidson Ultra Classic Electra Glide, a touring motorcycle, produces 65 horsepower and weighs 788 pounds.

jay,

you're a doc, right? so i'm screaming 120mph across a bridge 200 ft over a gorge on my Kawasaki Ninja ZX-6R when i hit a bump... my glock 33 goes off and blows a hole through my gut as i fly over the guard rail.

am i fuked? :eek:

p.s. oh, small detail from the consumer report story above...

'However, averaged across all registered motorcycles for 2005, 99.9 percent of riders did not meet an untimely demise.'

I rode a motorcycle in my early 20's. I absolutely loved it. There's nothing like the feeling of riding, for example, along Pacific Coast Highway, wind in your hair, flying along with all that power under you, just a flick of the wrist away. A convertible is a distant second.

I got wise, though, while using my bike to commute to grad school. Even though I had significantly toned down my driving, (after a couple of stupid close calls that could have put me in a wheelchair, or worse), I still experienced about one near miss every day, due to minor mistakes either by me or the other drivers around me. I realized that even if my driving were perfect, I had no control over them, and wouldn't always be able to anticipate their moves. It was inevitable: sooner or later someone I'd be in an accident, and then it would chance if I came out okay or as hamburger.

Now, as a father, I finally get what my own dad was so freaked out about when I started riding. My son's still young, but I'm already preparing for the day when he asks.

I love this cartoon from Doonesbury. It expresses my feelings exactly. Sorry I couldn't get the actual cartoon in, but here's a link:

http://bp1.blogger.com/_alh8JTwprEw/...Doonesbury.jpg

[GRG55]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Apparently "dirt cheap" means even Exxon can't make any money selling it...:p

Exxon to exit U.S. retail gas business

Thu Jun 12, 2008 6:27pm EDT
By Michael Erman
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp said on Thursday it is getting out of the retail gas business in the United States as sky-high crude oil prices squeeze margins.

Those branded service stations may be the most public aspect of Exxon's business, but they account for a small part of the company's profits.
Out of the roughly 12,000 Exxon Mobil branded stations in the United States, Exxon, the world's largest publicly-traded oil company, owns about 2,220.

Exxon plans to sell those service stations over several years. They include about 820 stations that it also operates.

Consumers will still be buying gasoline at stations that carry the Exxon and Mobil names, but they will not be owned by the company.

Service stations have struggled, even with $4-a-gallon plus gasoline prices because they have not been able to pass along to customers their additional costs from soaring crude oil...
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...38193020080612

[Wild Style]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Exactly.

The difference between the USA/Canada and Europe is that we live in vast nations with large distances between population centres.

The reason the EU pols can tax transport fuels heavily is because a lot of people in Europe don't need to use much transportation fuel (many city dwellers don't even own a car) and benefit from the redistribution of fuel taxes into other social services. Layer on a growing "green" party political culture and one has all the ingredients for substantive public support to "tax the rich".

One can drive across 4 or 5 European nations in the same time it takes to drive between the capital cities of any two of Canada's western provinces.

While the U.S. is vast in comparison to European countries, it is less a issue of sheer size and more a issue of urban/city planning (city design). Look at America's metro areas with a more european design like NYC, Boston, Chicago and Philly. Densely packed with mass transit, everything in walking distance and far more efficient on energy and water distribution. Now lets contrast that with places like Atlanta, Miami or Fort Lauderdale. All the above mentioned, for the most part, have ignorned intelligent city planning and instead focused on a more spraweled out design. This means inefficient use of resources and it inhibits the ability to plan meaningful mass transit design. For example, Miami and Fort Lauderdale are trying to design mass transit systems right now. Problem is, business are not centered in particular areas so moving people to places of work is a nightmare. Then couple that with the fact the city centers do not have a lot of living space around them. So for those that do work in the city center they have to commute from the utter 'burbs. It is also unfriendly to the citizen in terms of bicycling, walking and mass transit. If cities across the country would have adopted a NYC sort of design from the beginning, I believe this upcoming transition would have been far easier than what it is going to be.