Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

[GRG55]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

...If anyone is truly interested in meaningful energy use and policy solutions, they had better look to the engineers because they are the only educated professional class that don't suck at thermo.

We won't get there leaving it up to the lawyers, politicians, economists or environmentalists ...

I think phirang pointed out somewhere else around these parts that Trichet is an engineer...

Yikes! :eek:

[zoog]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Given all the chatter about the "death" of the American suburb due to high fuel and commuting costs, I cannot help but recall that, during my time spent in that country, every weekday morning southwest Britain, with its $8.00 a gallon gasoline, seems to be criss-crossed with motorways, jammed with cars (albeit smaller cars) all heading into London, and almost all with but one person in them.

Me thinks the end of commuting and the American suburb or rural area due to $4.00 gasoline is much exaggerated. Painful transition? Quite likely. Death to America (as we know it)? Hardly.

I agree. Just like we've been hearing of the imminent crash of oil prices all the way up and up in the past few years, we also hear about "oh if gas gets to $N a gallon, it's the end of the world as we know it". Then we reach that point and, guess what, most people are still driving. The higher gas prices become relative to incomes, the more people will change their behavior, but I don't expect anything sudden. Although I suppose there may be a tipping point out there somewhere.

[necron99]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

In any new technology, there is no economy of scale without volume. If the technology is prohibitively expensive to start with, there is no volume without government subsidy. I'm reasonably confident that there will be more economical alternate energy systems eventually, but probably not as inexpensive per unit as a $20 barrel of oil. There is certainly nothing anywhere on the horizon to replace gasoline or diesel for powering motor vehicles.

To your first point -- "if expensive, there is no volume without government subsidy" -- I might posit the counterexample of Personal Computers. As far as I understand the history, it was basically home/hobby enthusiasts who gradually created the market that allowed P.C.'s to bootstrap themselves up from technical curiosities into powerful tools, and from there into utter dominance of the business world. It didn't happen overnight, but it happened in a very short time-frame, and more or less without direct government subsidy.
(There are two counter-counter-objections: P.C.'s piggybacked upon the development of consumer electronics, which did enjoy massive subsidies from the military and space programs; I also heard that the government was a very large initial purchaser of Windows(TM), which helped that monopoly get off the ground. But neither of those is a direct subsidy; electronics certainly weren't going in the P.C. direction before the hobbyists came along.)

To your second point, "alternative will never be as cheap as $20/bl oil", that's quite true. But I don't believe this planet will ever, ever again see $20/barrel oil -- not until we conquer some other, extrasolar planet with vast reserves of petroleum. I bet your "30 years" figure assumes an energy price equivalent to around $50-60 per barrel. Every day that oil spends above $120, chops an additional 2 days off of your payback period! You will be thanking yourself for that solar rooftop in a handful of years, not 30. Plus it's also a reliability issue, as I pointed out, therefore an issue of personal independence, which is extremely difficult to put a dollar value on. I for one am willing to pay a premium in order to be less dependent upon corporations who internally discuss their customers with phrases like "F*#k you, Grandma Millie" and "Burn, California, Burn!"

Given the demands of an increasing population, particularly the demand boom in China and India -- we will never, ever see $20/bl "oil glut" pricing again. Global demand has risen something like 25% in the 15 years since fears of an "oil glut" dominated prices. Supply will simply never, ever keep up with that anymore, no matter how optimistic your view of tar sands and carbon injection. Therefore alternative energies are competitive and our best hope going forwards.

...Now, not that I personally have anything against government subsidy of alternative energy, mind you. I think that in the current situation -- heck, in any form of reality, even if prices weren't spiking right now -- it'd be well within the government's mandate to provide security and promote the general welfare, by subsidizing development of renewable energy. The fact that the government has not been subsidizing renewables at a level equal to their massive subsidies of mature technologies like fossil fuel and nuclear, at least since the 1970s gas crisis, is a shocking disregard for a clear and present security vulnerability of this country. It's a clear case of corruption due to money and power, blinding the government from doing its duty.

But I'm just sayin', the renewable energy revolution is not necessarily dependent upon some kind of Soviet-style government mandate in order to begin.

What keeps us stuck in this vulnerable position? Well, the reasons why we got here, reflect badly upon this country. Mistakes we have made, and peculiar attitudes such as American Exceptionalism ("Bad things can't happen to me, because we've got the best country in the world!!") So, discussing the reasons we're in this mess, provokes people [such as, for example, Mn_mark], to say "You hippies are sayin' bad things about my country so therefore your math must be wrong." Throw in some good old-fashioned market manipulation -- alternative energy is by definition decentralized, so the day it penetrates the general market is the beginning of the end of the glory days of all the giant fossil fuel multinationals -- and the result is that Americans are blind to an outstanding, even vital, business opportunity even when it's right under their nose.

It's our opportunity right now because we still have the best technology and research opportunities. In a just a few years, countries like Japan and Germany are going to catch up with us and take this opportunity away. (Since we've already offshored our tech manufacturing to Asia anyway, there's nothing else left to give America a competitive advantage.) Within a decade, if we don't act, America will likely fulfill Fred's vision of a "harsh" transition to a less energy-intensive economy, and become the energy equivalent of a third-world backwater country. Alternatives certainly can't replace oil outright -- but in any real-world scenario, oil certainly isn't going to save us from that backwater fate of energy famine and decay. The people who argue that alternative energy is a hippie plot to steal tax dollars... are tying America's fate to the dinosaurs, in more ways than one.

[c1ue]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

I think the point of a high tax on gasoline is not that having expensive gas itself is good.

It is that it rubs energy costs into the public's face.

It means that people will seriously contemplate the gasoline costs of a large SUV.

It means public transportation (and bond bills to build them) will get more significant mind share.

It means density is a real option (as opposed to McMansion suburbia).

Granted, everyone loves a cheap SUV ride.

But the point is to try and obtain the greatest good for the overall populace over time, not the shortest term gratification.

What we have now is a nation built on cheap gasoline, going into an era where cheap gasoline may become extinct.

[metalman]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

I think the point of a high tax on gasoline is not that having expensive gas itself is good.

It is that it rubs energy costs into the public's face.

It means that people will seriously contemplate the gasoline costs of a large SUV.

It means public transportation (and bond bills to build them) will get more significant mind share.

It means density is a real option (as opposed to McMansion suburbia).

Granted, everyone loves a cheap SUV ride.

But the point is to try and obtain the greatest good for the overall populace over time, not the shortest term gratification.

What we have now is a nation built on cheap gasoline, going into an era where cheap gasoline may become extinct.

politicians get elected not for policies that deliver short term gratification not the greatest good for the overall populace over time. the eu pols didn't do it because they were smart, but because you can tax there and still get elected. a gas tax is, in the current ideology that guys like Mn_Mark profess. 'the markets will work it out' is a religion not a basis for policy.

[metalman]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Don't these prices include a good dose of taxes to pay for all manner of non-driving related government functions? What would per-gallon prices be without the tax component and wouldn't that be a more legitimate and telling comparison?

no. do consumers change their behavior based on total cost of gas or do they calculate how much is tax?

You left out motorcycles which are more popular and numerous in other countries than in the USA. My primary non-winter transportation cost me $2200 in '89, weighs a tad over 400 lbs. fully fueled, will effortlessly run at freeway speeds, I have my pick of choice parking and all the while getting between 50 and 60 mpg. I'll even ride in the winter when the roads are clear with electric grip heaters and vest but mileage does drop when powering the heated apparel.

yeh, but they're fuking dangerous.

The best thing about high gas prices is all of the cars and general low driving skill cell phone yakking riff-raff that'll be priced off the roads making my two-wheeled travel much more pleasant.

snob! :cool: but i'm with ya on the safety factors. (see above)

That's right, it's Thermodynamics:

1. You can't win
2. You can't break even
3. You can't stop playing the game

If anyone is truly interested in meaningful energy use and policy solutions, they had better look to the engineers because they are the only educated professional class that don't suck at thermo.

We won't get there leaving it up to the lawyers, politicians, economists or environmentalists ...

if you're new here, these guys have been talking about that for years...

Energy and Money Part II: Can We Repeal the Laws of Thermodynamics?

We have plenty of oil. But we're running out of cheap oil and there are no cheap alternatives.

[GRG55]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

politicians get elected not for policies that deliver short term gratification not the greatest good for the overall populace over time. the eu pols didn't do it because they were smart, but because you can tax there and still get elected. a gas tax is, in the current ideology that guys like Mn_Mark profess. 'the markets will work it out' is a religion not a basis for policy.

Exactly.

The difference between the USA/Canada and Europe is that we live in vast nations with large distances between population centres.

The reason the EU pols can tax transport fuels heavily is because a lot of people in Europe don't need to use much transportation fuel (many city dwellers don't even own a car) and benefit from the redistribution of fuel taxes into other social services. Layer on a growing "green" party political culture and one has all the ingredients for substantive public support to "tax the rich".

One can drive across 4 or 5 European nations in the same time it takes to drive between the capital cities of any two of Canada's western provinces.

[jk]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

necron's post reminded me of something i first read about in the whole earth catalog in the '70s! [dates me] COGENERATION. i've always thought it incredibly stupid that i get heating oil, which is essentially identical to diesel fuel, delivered to my house and all i do is burn it for heat! an engine in the basement could be using it to generate electricity and to heat my home simultaneously.

just did a little web search on the topic and came across this helpful summary analysis:

http://ergosphere.blogspot.com/2005/...enhome_update1

one little quote which seemed especially interesting to me:

"If the household has an electric or plug-in hybrid vehicle, the cogenerator could feed it during the heating season."

this would provide an alternative to an extensive in home battery/dc electrical system, or at least allow for a smaller home power storage system. it also helps address the problem of the utilities not wanting to buy your excess power.

[Jay]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

yeh, but they're fuking dangerous.

Thank you. The health care costs and productivity costs are huge in motor cycle accidents. A handful of closed head injuries and spinal cord injuries to the twenty something set is devastating.

[GRG55]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Thank you. The health care costs and productivity costs are huge in motor cycle accidents. A handful of closed head injuries and spinal cord injuries to the twenty something set is devastating.

A medical doctor friend of mine, who used to work ER, once referred to them as donor-cycles...

[Jay]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

A medical doctor friend of mine, who used to work ER, once referred to them as donor-cycles...

Well, if you are a transplant fan, that's one of the few ways to get a healthy young liver.
Motor cycle accidents, a fall off a roof of 20 feet or more and GSW's are on the short list of catastrophic injuries. Huge hidden costs.

[metalman]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Well, if you are a transplant fan, that's one of the few ways to get a healthy young liver.
Motor cycle accidents, a fall off a roof of 20 feet or more and GSW's are on the short list of catastrophic injuries. Huge hidden costs.

Motorcycle death rates doubled; supersport bikes the most dangerous

Riding motorcycles is commonly considered a dangerous recreational pursuit. Just how risky? Motorcyclist fatalities have more than doubled in 10 years and reached 4,810 in 2006, accounting for 11 percent of total highway fatalities, according to recent analysis by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) and Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI). In addition, 88,000 riders were injured last year, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA).

Motorcycle deaths are on the rise, while automotive fatalities are decreasing accoding to reports from IIHS, NHTSA, and other safety agencies. The trends do reflect an increasing number of younger motorcyclists piloting performance bikes, as well as continued improvement in car safety.

What motorcycles show the greatest risks?
Supersport bike riders have death rates that are four times greater than average for all motorcycle types, says the IIHS. These so-called rockets are essentially racing bikes modified for highway use. Engineered for speed, they typically have more horsepower per pound than other bikes. A 2006 model Kawasaki Ninja ZX-6R, for example, produces 111 horsepower and weighs 404 pounds. In contrast, the 2006 model Harley-Davidson Ultra Classic Electra Glide, a touring motorcycle, produces 65 horsepower and weighs 788 pounds.

jay,

you're a doc, right? so i'm screaming 120mph across a bridge 200 ft over a gorge on my Kawasaki Ninja ZX-6R when i hit a bump... my glock 33 goes off and blows a hole through my gut as i fly over the guard rail.

am i fuked? :eek:

p.s. oh, small detail from the consumer report story above...

'However, averaged across all registered motorcycles for 2005, 99.9 percent of riders did not meet an untimely demise.'

[Jay]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

jay,

you're a doc, right? so i'm screaming 120mph across a bridge 200 ft over a gorge on my Kawasaki Ninja ZX-6R when i hit a bump... my glock 33 goes off and blows a hole through my gut as i fly over the guard rail.

am i fuked? :eek:

p.s. oh, small detail from the consumer report story above...

'However, averaged across all registered motorcycles for 2005, 99.9 percent of riders did not meet an untimely demise.'

Metalman, Yes, ER. I've seen some amazing survival stories with horrendous mechanisms. Sometimes the dice roll just right and you can walk away from something evil. It happens all the time.
That 0.1 % is damn expensive.

[necron99]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

necron's post reminded me of something i first read about in the whole earth catalog in the '70s! [dates me] COGENERATION.

http://ergosphere.blogspot.com/2005/...enhome_update1

Thanks very much for the link, jk, it looks like a good source of info!

[metalman]

Re: Gasoline still dirt cheap in the USA

Metalman, Yes, ER. I've seen some amazing survival stories with horrendous mechanisms. Sometimes the dice roll just right and you can walk away from something evil. It happens all the time.
That 0.1 % is damn expensive.

ride that bike, baby!