Last Lap for Bretton Woods

[Guest]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Sorry Spartacus -

You seem to post in truncated sentences. I'm not sure what you are saying / asking / clarifying here.

[Spartacus]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Sorry Spartacus -

You seem to post in truncated sentences. I'm not sure what you are saying / asking / clarifying here.

just repeating the sequence of posts

I posted a suggestion that JK read a couple of authors.

From that suggestion you seem to have concluded that I completely agree with everything Naomi Wolf and several unnamed authors ever wrote.

Just asking how one follows from the other

[c1ue]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Lukester,

Overconsumption is the method, debt is the result.

Germany's war debt was basically a consolidation of Allied costs thrown onto Germany; American debt is a result of overconsumption from the President down to John Smith; from foreign adventures however well intentioned to buying new cars every 2 years, and down towards shifting from $0.50 crap coffee to $3.50 Starbucks.

Sure, when the debt pyramid collapses, there will be suffering spread around.

But the countries doing to saving and working will still have savings and work; the country doing its best locust imitation will have a long tough winter ahead.

EJ and others have faith in innovation to get out of this mess, but the only creativity I've seen evidence of in resolving debt crises has been financial innovation.

Creativity does well for increasing production, but the problem with a debt pyramid is that consumption needs to be permanently reduced.

Innovation such as LEDs to replace incandescent or even fluorescent lights is great, but when TSHTF, there simply won't be the capital needed for the nation nor its individuals to invest in new technologies. This basically blunts the short term effects of all but a 'fusion' type innovation.

Even in the 'dilithium crystal'/fusion power scenario - I shudder to think what the economic dislocation would be: where would all the oil company/exploration company/gas station/combustion engine service employees go? Who'd pay to retool all of the cars in America?

There will eventually be benefits, but when the choice is eating or retooling the car, I'm guessing the choices will uniformly be for the former.

The innovative and the capitalists will simply do what they've been doing since time immemorial - move to better economic climates.

[Guest]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

C1ue -

Always appreciate your politically agnostic posts. You are about as idealistic and sentimental about political persuasions as a Gila Monster might be about eating it's next four legged dinner.

Spartacus -

I'm interested in those aspects of Ms. Wolf's analysis of America's slide into mere Fascism you disagree with, rather than those you agree with. I've never actually read anything of yours specifically skeptical or qualified of such views. What's your "position paper" on this topic?

[Spartacus]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Might have been better to ask for that before assuming
(lots of edits)
At first I got angry but now i'm just finding the whole episode funny. Your "analysis" of Wolf as I remember it was (paraphrased)

"she's never lived under a repressive regime, so she has no right to write this"

then later, after no one bought that

"she makes quote marks with her fingers so don't listen to her"

And you're demanding that I write a reasonable critique?

To the extent that I wrote anything about Wolf I wrote something that she's either wrong about or has not mentioned - loss of liberties started not with any fascism but with the war on drugs, and those in power now, maybe authoritarians, maybe Bush personally are taking it further

[Chris Coles]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

I start with China. They hold in their treasury a very large quantity of dollars. The first mistake has been to assume that they sit on them. That somehow, the US, while at war in two small regions, (Iraq and Afghanistan), and is well known to be at its limits of manpower and funds yet remains, in everybody's eyes; the strongest military power. That is a very big mistake. I suspect they are going to suddenly arrive on the scene with ten times what everybody thinks they have. In arms, manpower, every field of warfare and all paid for by those dollars that were supposed to just lie in the pockets of the CCP. The upside of that evaluation is that there is a strong element of belief that their ordinary people will force a change of overall control to something much more in line with their intellectual history. As someone that lived in San Francisco once told me; the Chinese are the best landlord... they do not gouge you. So I see China becoming the new superpower, but balanced by the surrounding influences of India and Asia minor.

Turning to the debate about the Euro. Europe, as a, yes, disperate group of nations, peoples if you like; is much more stable than many give it credit. You never assume that the South Eastern States are more prosperous than say DC, so, why do you expect the same differences between say, Germany and Italy to be so destructive of the value of the Euro?

The flight to the Euro is simply based upon reality. The Euro is seen as being the strongest currency at this time that is freely available world wide.

Germany has endured the massive cost of integrating East Germany back into some semblance of prosperity while remaining stable and economically in positive balance. Spain has taken itself from a small agrarian economy to become one of the major food suppliers while at the same time becoming the leading holiday economy, certainly for the Germans and the British. Another Florida while at the same time eclipsing California's Great Valley for food production.

Italy? Every family has a wayward teenager who overspends their budget. The Italians are well liked and enjoyed. So they have economic problems? They have always had such.

Russia is a different problem. A good friend has just returned to report he felt as safe in Moscow as anywhere he has ever been and the cost of a meal matched central London. But they do not have an economy based upon the work ethic of the small businessperson as we do here in the West. Their economy is entirely based upon the idea that central control will in the end bring greater prosperity. And it has.. has it not? For the time being...

In my opinion, the straw that will break the camels back is not economic, but the weather. I fear that the breakup of the ice at each pole is moving much faster than anyone has expected. A sudden rise in sea levels will force a complete change in EVERY economy. London and New York flooded are worthless. Food for thought.

[Guest]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Spartacus -

Sounds like you are tied up in knots over my posts, channeling your anger into derisory 'humor'? Do you feel your personal civil liberties are in dire peril up there in Canada? Looks pretty good over where you are, from my perch.

I'll chip in my two cents from down here in the purportedly Proto-Neo-Quasi-Fascist USA - things aren't great, but I hardly feel I'm living in a police state yet old chap. Been around a good few countries in my life so far, so I have some useful 'benchmarks'. We are definitely not speaking out here in fear of our lives at this time, so the 'courage' Ms. Wolf congratulates her audience for in attending her speaking engagement may be a trifle over-rated.

That these are not the 'good old days' should be self-evident. That they are not yet the days governed by Ms. Wolf's "Blackwater-Brownshirts" may be an insight still intelligible only to those who don't go into cardiac palpitations over breathless blog articles (US has wargamed nuclear scenarios vs. Iran, therefore "Iran is about to be nuked". :confused: :p

[Guest]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Chris -

Wouldn't it be a real 'kick in the head' (a Dean Martin favorite line) if your ideas on this outlandish polar melt topic, probably universally regarded as hilarious here among hardened skeptics of every stripe, are born out to actually be true in a mere ten years?

I cannot imagine anything working more magically, to take the entire world's mind of all of it's other innumerable squabbles: economic, political, religious - the whole ball of wax. Unheard of! Our planet host actually has the audacity to be complaining of our excretions, and threatening to evict us? :rolleyes:

[Chris Coles]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Lukester,

You got it in one. Everybody looks for the obvious. It will be something totally unexpected that tips the balance into true chaos. From that point onwards, all bets are off and we are back to the dark ages.

[GRG55]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Lukester,

You got it in one. Everybody looks for the obvious. It will be something totally unexpected that tips the balance into true chaos. From that point onwards, all bets are off and we are back to the dark ages.

You two are just full of sunshine today, aren't you...

Lukester: So which is it really going to be? Climate change induced floods and drought, or Matt Simmons view that an energy crisis is soon going to trump global warming for all the space on Page 1?

Or maybe both? Which probably means we "fry (instead of freeze) in the dark"?

I think I'm going to crawl back into bed and pull the covers over my head after reading all this stuff... ;)

[Chris Coles]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Spartacus -

Sounds like you are tied up in knots over my posts, channeling your anger into derisory 'humor'? Do you feel your personal civil liberties are in dire peril up there in Canada? Looks pretty good over where you are, from my perch.

I'll chip in my two cents from down here in the purportedly Proto-Neo-Quasi-Fascist USA - things aren't great, but I hardly feel I'm living in a police state yet old chap. Been around a good few countries in my life so far, so I have some useful 'benchmarks'. We are definitely not speaking out here in fear of our lives at this time, so the 'courage' Ms. Wolf congratulates her audience for in attending her speaking engagement may be a trifle over-rated.

That these are not the 'good old days' should be self-evident. That they are not yet the days governed by Ms. Wolf's "Blackwater-Brownshirts" may be an insight still intelligible only to those who don't go into cardiac palpitations over breathless blog articles (US has wargamed nuclear scenarios vs. Iran, therefore "Iran is about to be nuked". :confused: :p

I have to start with publicly eating a small portion of humble pie. Not long ago, Lukester, (among others), and me had a spat about one certain guy called Chavez down there in Venezuela and I was keen to rise to the bait and defend the poor guy. In truth, my quest was to debate that it was not supportable to allow ANY attempt to undermine the democratically elected leader of ANY nation. I want to make it perfectly clear, I remain completely committed to that ideal. But recently we had a BBC TV program showing how corrupt the Chavez, (now not a single "guy" but the whole family), have become. So, in part, (careful Lukester, wait for it), Lukester was correct to imply that Chavez was not the person he seemed to be from the outset. Indeed, it became clear from watching the program, that Chavez is more inclined to line his own, and his brothers and other relatives, pockets than do more than pay lip service to the needs of the poor. So, in part, Lukester, you were right about Chavez and I was mistaken.

But in contemplating eating some humble pie it became clear that neither side has all the answers. Chavez has been properly and fairly elected by the majority of the people on a platform to bring some relief to the poor who elected him. What has become very clear, Chavez does not know how to do that. He has fallen back onto old fashioned left wing ideas that do not work. It is worth suggesting that it would be improbable to believe he would take exactly the same economic values and rules, (that did not work for the majority of the poor), as had the previous national leaders. That in turn seems to have quite naturally led Chavez to believe that he can move forward in any manner he can think of. We can now see what happened next, as the BBC have now illustrated, he lines his and his families pockets. In fact the program showed, he does not have a clue as to what to do for the best for his people.

Why do I bring this up while highlighting the "domestic" between Spartacus and Lukester?

None of us has all the answers.

The truth is democratic capitalism had left the majority of the people of Venezuela with no hope and dirt poor. Equally true is that the alternative, left wing pseudo-communist tribalism does not work either. The point I am trying to make is that it is no good continuing to argue about ideas and rules for society that do not bring results. We have to sit down and work out what is wrong and create a better set of rules than we have today.

That it is a worthless road that leaves us throwing pebbles of bile at each other, rather than sitting down and admitting our differences, each eating a little of the humble pie and then getting on with it.

We came to this forum because we all of us believe that the rules we all believed were good and would work for the rest of our working lives; are instead a load of crap and do not work. The world economy is teetering on the edge of oblivion and yes, there are some complete idiots in charge at the moment. That is the truth of it.

We sit around the virtual table and have the potential to open up a clean sheet of paper and re-write the rules.

Let us do so.

So please, put down the mop or rolling pin and clear the debris off the kitchen table and let us make a clean start. Put the past mistakes behind us and let us take the lead for everyone else. We have the means to do so here with iTulip and we have the individuals with wide experience from all walks of life to set the stage for a really useful debate.

The proposal is; we none of us has all the answers; so what basic economic and social rules do we need that will work to bring true economic prosperity allied with really true freedom to the majority of the people of any nation?

Let the Debate begin -

[Chris Coles]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

You two are just full of sunshine today, aren't you...

Lukester: So which is it really going to be? Climate change induced floods and drought, or Matt Simmons view that an energy crisis is soon going to trump global warming for all the space on Page 1?

Or maybe both? Which probably means we "fry (instead of freeze) in the dark"?

I think I'm going to crawl back into bed and pull the covers over my head after reading all this stuff... ;)

Well, this is the main news story this lunchtime here in the UK. So if I were you I would go out and buy some wellies for Christmas.

Business call for plan on climate

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7120324.stm

[Guest]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

So if I were you I would go out and buy some wellies for Christmas.

There you go GRG55 - Nothing a really stout pair of English Wellies couldn't fix. You can take on the world with a pair of those. Although come to think of it some people may gawp a bit down in Riyadh to see you walking around in a pair of Wellies. But "in principle" it's the right move.

[bill]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

Russia remains the wild card in the European union's future in the next period of economic and political stress.

Then, too, the Soviet withdrawal from Eastern Europe hardly guarantees a permanent exit. Indeed, the Russian presence in Eastern Europe has surged and ebbed repeatedly over the past few centuries. In a grave warning, a member of President Mikhail Gorbachev's negotiating team at the recent Washington summit said, "You have the same explosive mixture you had in Germany in the 1930s. The humiliation of a great power. Economic troubles. The rise of nationalism. You should not underestimate the danger."

Were a global recession to cause oil demand to fall dramatically, the impact on the Russian economy will be more profound than on China's. In the context of rising nationalism in Putin's Russia, President Mikhail Gorbachev's negotiating team member's warning may prove prophetic.

I just listened to Mr. Medvedev say live on Bloomberg, Russia will sell oil in rubles within a year. What a wild card indeed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...k4A&refer=home

Gazprom May Switch Sales to Rubles as Dollar Weakens (Update3)
By Dan Lonkevich and Jim Kennett
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom, the world's largest natural-gas exporter, may start selling its crude and gas production in rubles rather than dollars and euros after the U.S. currency weakened.
``We are seriously thinking about selling our resources in rubles,'' Alexander Medvedev, Gazprom's deputy chief executive officer, told reporters today in New York. He didn't give a specific timeline for the decision

[Chris Coles]

Re: Last Lap for Bretton Woods

I just listened to Mr. Medvedev say live on Bloomberg, Russia will sell oil in rubles within a year. What a wild card indeed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...k4A&refer=home

That is a very interesting concept. But the question springs to mind, where do you get the rubles to pay for the oil and gas? Somewhere down the line, someone else has to buy ? to pay for them. And, when the supply dries up, the price will go through the roof..... Nasty!

Definitely not good for the UK energy scene long term. Did someone say Russia was possibly going to return to Eastern Europe? More like the UK will be at their mercy during a hard winter. (Assuming we will get at least one more before the ice melts).