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Nov 25, 2007 (Scott Kirsner - Boston Globe)
It might pop again, but some say that may not be a bad thing
Eric Janszen, an entrepreneur and investor who runs the economics investing site iTulip.com, doesn't believe we're seeing another bubble like the dot-com one, but he foresees "a long and relatively deep recession" sparked by the crashing housing market.
"Advertising gets hammered in a recession," he says, as does consumer spending. And acquisitions of small Internet companies, a favored cash-out strategy for entrepreneurs, could be hurt, too.
"Nothing slows down the acquisition pace more than falling stock prices, and the falling perceived valuations of companies that might be acquired," Janszen says. "The acquirers think, 'Why not wait until they get cheaper?'" (Janszen's site, as it happens, is also supported by ads.)
AntiSpin: Speaking of predictions, let's do a post-mortem on Janszen's 2007 forecasts made in November 2006.
- The dollar will be the headline issue all next year as the US goes into recession and the its trading partners react.
- The Chinese government will not allow for more rapid appreciation but the euro may rise until the EU needs to prints euros to buy dollars, in which case gold ends 2007 over $800.
- I do not envy the Fed next year. 2007 will be the year when all the policies of the last ten years or so finally produce undeniable stagflation.
- The Dems will be overly conservative, and will not act until the economic pain becomes quite palpable. The pain will come relatively slowly, as declining housing bubbles are slow compared to collapsing stock market bubbles. I don't expect any action from Congress until Q3 2007 at the earliest.
Meanwhile, the mythical Dept. of Clueless Leadership has summoned so many private jets to this year's climate conference that there's not enough space to park them all. Greenhouse gases never stopped a jet but maybe $200 oil will.
A Lack of Apron Area Will Compel Delegations Attending the UN Climate Change Conference to Park their Planes Outside of Bali
Nov. 25, 2007 (Bali News)
Tempo Interaktif reports that Angkasa Pura - the management of Bali's Ngurah Rai International Airport are concerned that the large number of additional private charter flights expected in Bali during the UN Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) December 3-15, 2007, will exceed the carrying capacity of apron areas. To meet the added demand for aircraft storage officials are allocating "parking space" at other airports in Indonesia.
EJ adds:Nov. 25, 2007 (Bali News)
Tempo Interaktif reports that Angkasa Pura - the management of Bali's Ngurah Rai International Airport are concerned that the large number of additional private charter flights expected in Bali during the UN Conference on Climate Change (UNFCCC) December 3-15, 2007, will exceed the carrying capacity of apron areas. To meet the added demand for aircraft storage officials are allocating "parking space" at other airports in Indonesia.
U.S. Sales Rose 8.3% Day After Thanksgiving, ShopperTrak Says
November 25, 2007 (Mary Jane Credeur and Kelly Riddell - Bloomberg)
U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases the day after Thanksgiving, 8.3 percent more than a year earlier, as retailers promoted toys and electronics to lure shoppers.
Consumers remained resilient and proved they were willing to spend even with oil prices rising and other economic pressures, ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said yesterday in a statement. The day after Thanksgiving, dubbed Black Friday, typically accounts for between 4.5 percent and 5 percent of all holiday sales, the company said.
``You've got to move product,'' Davidowitz [chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc., a New York-based retail consulting firm] said last week. ``And retailers are on a terrible sales trend, so there is no choice but to sell the inventory at what you can sell it at.''
The wife and I headed out to the local malls on the widely ignored "Buy Nothing Day" Nov. 23 and also the 24th. Indeed the malls were packed. We found Made in China goods at ridiculously low prices, such as a Sony iPod docking under-the-cabinet kitchen sound system and tuner for $50, after rebate. The dollar peg is helping China sell goods this year but the free floating euro is creating problems for European exporters.November 25, 2007 (Mary Jane Credeur and Kelly Riddell - Bloomberg)
U.S. consumers spent $10.3 billion on holiday purchases the day after Thanksgiving, 8.3 percent more than a year earlier, as retailers promoted toys and electronics to lure shoppers.
Consumers remained resilient and proved they were willing to spend even with oil prices rising and other economic pressures, ShopperTrak RCT Corp. said yesterday in a statement. The day after Thanksgiving, dubbed Black Friday, typically accounts for between 4.5 percent and 5 percent of all holiday sales, the company said.
``You've got to move product,'' Davidowitz [chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc., a New York-based retail consulting firm] said last week. ``And retailers are on a terrible sales trend, so there is no choice but to sell the inventory at what you can sell it at.''
Europe's exporters squeezed
November 25, 2007 (Geraldine Baum, Tribune Newspapers)
The euro's rise and dollar's slide are squeezing European exporters' profits or multiplying their losses, prompting layoffs and plant closings. Firms are not only curbing production of goods headed to U.S. buyers, but also rethinking the way they do business. The euro recently passed the record $1.47 mark, gaining 11.5 percent since the beginning of the year against the greenback. A strong British pound, moribund Japanese yen and undervalued Chinese yuan also play roles in this tale of currency chaos, from a European exporter's perspective.
Shoppers have been trained over the past few years to buy the discounts. These occur at the start and the end of the holiday season, and the first two days offer 50% or greater incentives. We're going to head out again today to see if the heavy shopping during the two day deep discount period was "it" for the early part of the holidays or if shoppers are not all that price sensitive.November 25, 2007 (Geraldine Baum, Tribune Newspapers)
The euro's rise and dollar's slide are squeezing European exporters' profits or multiplying their losses, prompting layoffs and plant closings. Firms are not only curbing production of goods headed to U.S. buyers, but also rethinking the way they do business. The euro recently passed the record $1.47 mark, gaining 11.5 percent since the beginning of the year against the greenback. A strong British pound, moribund Japanese yen and undervalued Chinese yuan also play roles in this tale of currency chaos, from a European exporter's perspective.
Final report from EJ's shopping with the wife:
Today, with the deep discounts over, the mall was no more busy than on an average Sunday afternoon. Keep in mind, the local economy is strong due to technology industry rebound, especially for companies with overseas markets, employment by large military firms and military sub-contractors, employment by biotech that is supported by a strong investment climate, and tourism supported by a weak dollar.
Reports from readers welcomed.
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